Seems to me the inverted yield curve has successfully predicted about 3,000 of the country’s last two recessions.
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David H
@dhorsb
Happy 1 year anniversary to the US yield curve being inverted. 
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Unless I have this wrong, you don't really get the downturn until somewhere after the curve unwinds. Maybe I'm off base about that?
Sir.
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It's a Code Red: Inventor of the Yield Curve Indicator on the State...
Campbell Harvey is a Professor at Duke University and a partner at Research Affiliates. He sat down with Michael Batnick and Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Ma...
Central bank manipulation has destroyed the signal. The Fed intervenes to manipulate the yield curve which broke it as a signal.
The yield curve inversion is pretty reliable but it is a -leading- indicator. It can also take a long time to manifest. 8-24 months, usually right as the yield curve goes back to normal.
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inverted yield curve indicates some kind of stress in the system, somethings gonna pop sooner or latter for the steam to escape and the curve to look healthy again
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