Nate Silver on X: "It's possible another candidate like Brad Lander or Adrianne Adams would win head-to-head against both Cuomo and Zohran, making them what us nerds call the Condorcet winner. But if they get eliminated before the final round, it doesn't matter. This almost happened in 2021. https://t.co/Mbji43U0RH" / X

Today's newsletter is a guest post from Joel Wertheimer on the NYC mayoral primary. One of two highly polarizing candidates (Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani) is likely to win despite the presence of ranked choice voting.

64K

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

It's possible another candidate like Brad Lander or Adrianne Adams would win head-to-head against both Cuomo and Zohran, making them what us nerds call the Condorcet winner. But if they get eliminated before the final round, it doesn't matter. This almost happened in 2021.

12:37 PM · Jun 10, 2025

59K

Views

Post your reply

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

Jun 10

TBH I've become a bit more skeptical of RCV after reading this post. But as Joel points out, the NYT's discontinuation of local endorsements also makes it much harder for voters who want alternatives to Cuomo (and Zohran) to coordinate. More here:

Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran?

From natesilver.net