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Derek Thompson
@DKThomp
Nobody knows what’s going on. You’ve prominent Trumpsplainers saying the goal of the tariffs is to raise trillions in revenue and move us off income taxes. You’ve got folks who seem super plugged into the Trump-tech alliance like Palmer saying no no no, the goal is the opposite: a world of no tariffs and fully free trade . These are completely incompatible goals. You can’t raise govt revenue over a ten year horizon with a tax that is *designed to disappear*. There’s no playbook to see here. There’s no smoke filled room. Nobody knows what’s going on and the market knows that nobody knows and that—even beyond the specific tariff numbers — is why stocks are puking.
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Palmer Luckey
@PalmerLuckey
"Unprecedented embrace of protectionism", they say. No, reciprocal tariffs are the opposite. The whole point is to encourage free trade rather than lopsided "free trade" we currently have with so many countries. "It's very simple. If they charge us, we charge them."
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David Watson 🥑
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Steve
@SteveFlanders22
yep
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Steve
@SteveFlanders22
there is zero logic to the tariffs 1) if the goal is to rebuild the manufacturing base, it can't just be a negotiating tool 2) if the goal is to collect external revenue, it can't rebuild the manufacturing base, as people will buy the american made goods 3) if the goal is to
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Eddie Scarry
@eScarry
It’s impossible for you to conceive that either outcome is a possibility depending on future events.
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Robin Debreuil
@debreuil
Not really. If an object is made in the US, there is a huge amount of taxes that are collected from the process. If it’s made overseas, the US gets no revenue from that. It approximately doesn’t matter if that revenue comes from tariffs or local taxes. Either way it’s a net
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Dreamspace2
@dreamspace2
But we do know what’s going on and we’ve known for the last 5+ years we just don’t know exactly how it will play out. It’s a reset. Of everything. It’s the end of the financial system that has been in place since the 1920’s. ISO20022 has always been the tell. We can’t move
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Middle Mountain
@Middle_Mtn1
We can’t get both, but we also can’t get neither. Our counterparties get a vote like with all foreign policy. It’s the opposite of making precise policy with confident predictions which never actually occur. Like JCPOA or the Paris Climate Treaty. I actually think it’s a better
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Keep AZ free
@lovingaz11
In a perfect world, there would be ZERO tariffs, VAT taxes or restrictions on trade. FREE TRADE! However, not every country will give up their gravy train of tariffs and taxes and so the US will have to tariff those countries. Therefore, in reality you're going to get a little
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Frank Thomas
@fantony_francis
The real goal is to correct/crash the market, stock, and housing. Dow42? S&P 5600, Nasdaq 17! Average House-400K? Eggs? Gas? New cars? Who cares about those? This is nuts. You cant have overvalued assets and expect people to move up the ladder. If he succeeds in doing that, hes
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ducovitae
@ducovitae
Why can't it be both? I see it as a win-win. Either countries respond by lowering their tariffs (which will open up markets for US companies) or they won't lower their tariffs, and US companies will take their market share. They both work towards the same goal, which is boosting
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David Doney
@David_Charts
The Republicans are typically bad for the economy. Why anyone votes for them would be a mystery, but we know how immigrants (who make them richer) and transgender (who they never meet) can break the minds of Republicans.
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ValueHao
@ValueHao
I think you should ask noted racist and your podcast friend Richard Hanania what to make of it - sure he’ll probably say blacks are genetically inferior but it’s important to get his perspective
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Matt McGoldrick
@goldust02
Could it be that COVID showed how vulnerable the supply chains are? there needs to be a correction in local manufacturing around the world (outside China). In a worst case scenario, how could the West compete with China / Russia if all supply chains are diminished?
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knap time
@Un1Underground
45% tariff on Sri Lanka whose economy is 1/3 that of Queens, NY (about 25 Queens neighborhoods). It will drive a whole bunch of weaker economies into the arms of China. That’s not to speak of lack of capacity in US manufacturing output to match any sudden increased demand.
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Mark Wyatt
@fatigueCFDdude
I see at least three tariffs: 1. Protect US Auto industry (auto tariffs) 2. Negotiate general fair trade (reciprocal tariffs) 3. Generate revenue (10% base tariff)
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@cjmfour
@cjmfour
It’s not that hard, you get revenue either way in theory. You get revenue if they don’t drop their tariffs by collecting your own reciprocal tariff. If they do drop their tariffs it results in a boost to GDP and by extension revenue.
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Eclicity
@Eclicity
Why do I get the feeling all of this is somehow creates great real estate opportunities for the Trump Family though I have no clue how. Trump is playing 4D chess.
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Shrillbilly
@Shrillbilly
Two scenarios: 1. Tariffs raise trillions in revenue as imports still occur as before the tariffs meaning US manufacturing is NOT helped. 2. Tariffs limit imports, forcing domestic manufacturing increase, which means MINIMAL tariff revenues are seen. Trumpers: BOTH cant happen
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howisthisnamenottakenyet2
@AntiEntropicMan
I think Trump & Co know what's going on. The wealthy & powerful usually come out in better shape after disasters & crashes. Anyone who isn't already wealthy won't be able to defend against an antagonistic economy. This is economic sabotage in the pursuit of more power.
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Lily Moon
@LilyMoon90060
Lower the 10-year yield. We have to refinance 9T this year alone. Ask grok how much interest we would have to pay on our debt in the next 10 years if we don’t get rates down.
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Sage’s Haki
@HakiSage
The short-term goal is a massive boom in American investment and trillions in revenue to escape the imposed tariffs. The long-term goal is a free trade deal and the cancellation of tariffs globally.
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And Peggy (Schuyler)
@Hamultonne
It's not that deep. Trump is a simple minded bully with no business acumen. His mental model of the world is a win-lose scenario and he thinks this is winning.
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Brit Suede
@lastitsbrit
What I know and all I need to know in order to be impressed by Trump is that tariffs are good, income tax is bad, unrestricted imports are bad, and offshoring jobs is bad.
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Neil Pountney
@PountneyNeil
There is no way in hell tariffs can equate to income Tax collected. The different is a number so big I could not even express it!!!!
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newtdis
@newtdis79798
The playbook is to crash the US so hard that it gives them an excuse to hit the social safety net and cut their own taxes. Then the poor and working class will be desperate enough to work in factories for repatriated industries.
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Jonathan O'Guin
@SonOfaGunsmith
To be fair, this IS Palmer Luckey, a man who chooses to look like Jimmy Buffett's bastard, and let his sister marry Matt Gaetz. We have to assume a level of incompetence.
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waxaxe
@waxaxe1
This only seems crazy because you don’t have a strategic brain like Trump and are only seeing step 1. Step 2 is to start raking in bribes to decrease tariffs on favored nations. Make sense now?
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Galician Ghost
@strumloud
Nobody wants to live in your global socialist Jewish country, Derek. We voted for Trump to beat your kind out of power and make sure noone like you takes over our country.
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Getreal
@Buckthedoggie1
37T dollars in debt & people are going crazy over Tariffs that would bring in more revenue & pay down debt..America we have a bunch of socialists d-rats who are hell bend to keep destroying the America way of life.. 37T debt is far more dangerous than placing reciprocal Tariffs
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AC
@wheyshaker
Isn’t the point of tariffs to induce people to move to domestically produced goods? So if that could happen then how do the tariffs raise “trillions” in revenue? And are there enough imported goods from which you could raise trillions in tariffs?Doesn’t make any sense.
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Nix
@neekeaux
You also can’t have people only buy American if you’re raising trillions in revenue from tariffs because that would mean Americans are still buying foreign goods
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David Hansen
@DHeath12290
The market doesn’t know shit. It’s become a casino full of feckless gamblers. Look at a long term chart of the S&P 500. We’re in a massive bubble, as bad or worse than 2000 which will revert to below SPX 3000 when the market is forced to sober up and think. 50% lower from here.
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drmongie
@drmongie
The goal is to make Americans tough and hardened for war. Full military mobilization of American youth is coming! Mark my words.
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