Post

Conversation

Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesias
As I wrote at the time “this strikes me as a safe, low-upside pick — a missed opportunity for Harris to either moderate her image or secure gains in a swing state.” Low-variance play when she needed high variance. Story of many Dem moves post-2022. slowboring.com/p/thirteen-way
Quote
James Surowiecki
@JamesSurowiecki
In retrospect, what was the point of picking Tim Walz as the VP nominee? He got picked because he was good on TV associating Trump and Vance with the weird fringes of the online right, and then almost soon as he got the nomination, he stopped doing that. So why pick him?
107K
Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesias
What did happen in 2022 is Dems won a bunch of close senate races. What’s the right lesson to draw from that? Well here’s what I wrote last February. Good news is Gallego, Baldwin, and Slotkin all ran ahead of the national ticket.
Image
11K
Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesias
It’s never obvious what you should do next in politics and I won’t pretend to be certain or to have all the answers. But a good first step is to start downweighting the views of people who make bad predictions with bad epistemic practices. Look for better judgment.
41K
Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesias
A consistent theme in strategic errors: — Picking Kamala Harris as VP in 2020 — Not prioritizing in BBB in 2021 — Declaring victory after 2022 — Biden running in 2023 — Picking Walz in 2024 A disposition toward excessive complacency and aversion to rocking the boat.
66.9K
Views
David Watson 🥑
Post your reply

Show additional replies, including those that may contain offensive content
Show additional replies, including those that may contain offensive content
Nilu Kulasingham
@nilukulasingham
I don't think picking Harris was a mistake. Georgia did show that she boosted turnout in 2020 and that lead to the Democratic control of Senate. Giving her some unwinnable issues was the big mistake. She should have been given smaller, more easily achievable tasks.
2.6K
Laura Shin
@laurashin
No, these are all small picture items. What the Dems have been getting wrong for a long time is looking down on voters, acting like know-it-alls, calling them dumb, racist, sexist, morons, acting better than them. When voters don’t know which policy is espoused by which party,
Show more
8.2K
Brian 🔰🐿️
@brianwut
It’s not just that this disposition leads to strategic errors. It’s that voters pick up on and are repulsed by the risk-averse, managerialist worldview animating it.
1.3K
Liam Donovan
@LPDonovan
Not sure I follow the BBB bit. The error wasn't one of priority, it was a failure of trust, and a misreading of the power dynamics with Sinemanchin.
2.6K
Danny Porter
@DannyPorter360
Picking Kamala Harris wasn't the mistake. Announcing ahead of time (and taking credit for) the historic nature of the pick certainly was. Lying about being a "bridge to the next generation" certainly was. To say I'm disappointed doesn't communicate it.
249
Clinton
@CondorTX
Waiting two years to do something about broken asylum system surely is in the top 5 strategic errors. Dragging feet on that for so long won them zero votes
693
Josh Job 🌐🥑🔰🇺🇦🥥
@joshjob42
It seems like Walz was picked for a skill that then didn’t let him utilize at all once he was picked, which seems like a bad strategy yeah
733
Plain Simple Garak
@psgarak
Not aggressively pushing J6 investigations - even before Garland was confirmed, DURING the impeachment - is the biggest mistake. Should have pressured McConnell to push Trump aside so that they could move forward, rather than let it slide for confirmations..
476
mahgist
@mahgist
I mostly agree with a lot of this. But efforts to rich the boat have fallen short, and surely that was taken into consideration? Bernie and Warren come to mind.
533
justjoshua
@joshuah91644929
Walz was/is very favorable and likeable. He was not a bad pick. I really can’t see how he hurt the campaign. And that’s all a VP can do, not hurt the campaign
207
Justin Havens
@JustinHavens10
A disposition toward excessive complacency and aversion to rocking the boat. "Conservative" conserving the status quo, including maintaining and extending most of djt's policies.
165
nnjjnn
@hnbhjjh
but where is the evidence that tim walz hurt, or that shapiro would have been better? walz has his own virtues, and i don' t think there's any way to say that they didn't outweigh the theoretical advantage in pa alone
842
Sam Elder
@SamElder11
Given Democrats’ narrow victories in swing state Senate races, there’s a case that low variance was the optimal play! It gives up the presidency to maintain the chance of a 2028 trifecta, which losing two more Senate races would have essentially made impossible.
153
PEEFsmash 🗽🌐
@peefsmash
What about KBJ for SCOTUS! One of the most important Dem appointments that will happen for decades and they limit their pool to black women only, <3% of the BAR passing population.
147
Aaron Keillor
@AaronKeillor
The Dems have seemingly put their trust in raising money, organizing, and running a top down campaign instead of trying to understand the zeitgeist. It took GOP desperation (weak candidates) to produce Trump as the nom. Dems need to start listening.
142
hence
@hencexox
Hard to know but I feel like like having the boosted child tax credit in place would have paid dividends for Dems. Alot of voters felt like Dems delivered nothing for them, the CTC was the most tangible Dems ever did and it just went and people forgot about it.
381
dino
@dino18992167
I think picking her checked the box of keeping Dem's most loyal constituents - Black women (85% margin). Also what is BBB?
58
Alan Phelge
@AlanPhelge
I think Walz’s “weird” barbs and “mind your owned damned business” philosophy were the clearest (and most easily scalable) Dem campaign messages and are reasonable foundations for the party winning back blue collar and Latino votes
124
Sam
@bastille_sam
In hindsight, Trump should've won the 2020 election. We would be staring at a Dem landslide in 2028 in that scenario. If Biden hadn't contested in 2020, Trump would've won against non-Biden candidates. Biden vying for WH in 2020 was a bad choice .
38
Pagan Harleman
@PaganHarleman
I think she was put in an untenable position and needed to position herself as more of a renengade away from Biden to have a chance. But also, they let Trump rehabilitate, assisted by MSM. Huge mistake.
49
Lalarium Institute
@lalarium
Also a hodgepodge set of national policies that appealed to various extremes of the party but turned off the majority of American voters. Then inflation.
116
Steve Valk
@valklimate
Gotta call bullshit on blaming the VP pick. Trump picked Vance, whose approval was WAY under Walz. You're grasping straws.
51
Toucan Sam Smith 🏳️‍🌈
@peter_and_the
Walz was by far the most popular part of the campaign, particularly before they made him shut up so they could swing right and campaign with Cheney. WTF are you talking about?
106
Angie’s Eyeball 🏳️‍🌈🧾
@AngieCarveWEye
Strategic error for 28 already in works, do nothing at all to reassure 1/3 of all dem voters losing faith in elections, shit on those people for even asking. Then run your boy Gavin who we already hate intensely for all of this.
17
LeNeveu
@LeNeveu08403789
As some black feminists have said, black women are treated by society as "the other of the other." When Biden said he would select a black woman, it raised an obvious succession issue. On the other hand, it was and will be great for black women.
100
themountaingoat
@themountaingoa1
Yea sure the most popular guy on both tickets was a problem. The real problem is there are too many radicals who believe in things like having a billion immigrants in the country in democratic circles.
46
Voice of Yogi Berra AM/FM/HD/ChatGPT
@RLangford18
What would you have done differently? Ever thought of being bold, jumping into the fray, test your advice in the face of attacks? As for KH, she outperformed all you prognosticators. Most importantly what is the strategy you will recommend and implement going forward?
47
Craven Morehead
@TotallyCraven
It's unclear what the Dem Party even is anymore. Party elites picked Biden in 2020 when the primaries yielded mixed results. Kamala was also picked by party elites. The Dems are basically a loose coalition of people that aren't Republican but otherwise have little in common
108
Charliepop
@Charliepop2001
Lol cmon man people didn’t care about any of progressive spending cos Inflation . Biden running in 2023 was the only strategic error. Ofcourse idiots like you will throw Harris under the bus .
61
John Score
@JScoreForever
Picking Harris as VP is really where the 2024 defeat started. There was always a high chance that Biden's VP could end up the 2024 nominee and a few Dem activists cared more about that VP being a black woman than having a strong candidate for 2024.
225
Birdstein
@BradyCrosby5
Matthew Yglesias: “picking the most popular person on either presidential ticket.. critical strategic error” Dude wtf are you talking about.
27
Tom_b
@tboynew
Maybe compensating for his advanced age, Biden let the ultraliberal kids set the policy agenda. So student loan forgiveness, vacillation over Israel/Hamas, ignoring illegal immigration for 3 years, banning oil leases and pipeline construction etc. Too much progressive stuff.
34
Lexi
@lexiforsenate
When Kamala was repeating all your yimby talking points, would you say that's an example of her campaign being chronically online and too focused on impressing people like you?
33
Max Riley
@mrr78504
Biden could have won. He consistently ran a few points ahead of Kamala during his Presidency. Sure he was old and halting - but Obama/Pelosi throwing him to the wolves immediately forced Dems into running a schizoid "continuity and change" campaign.
17