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Ajeya Cotra
@ajeya_cotra
Finally filled out my forecasts. This was excellently designed! 🙌Loved having the context laid out since I'm too lazy to read the papers. TL;DR I think everything saturates except FrontierMath, which merely dectuples.😬 Talk about it at Minifest tomorrow!
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Sage
@sage_future_
Is AGI just around the corner or is AI scaling hitting a wall? To make this discourse more concrete, we’ve created a survey for forecasting concrete AI capabilities by the end of 2025. Fill it out and share your predictions by end of year! bit.ly/ai-2025 🧵
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David Watson 🥑
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Ajeya Cotra
@ajeya_cotra
If you're coming to Minifest tomorrow, I'm hosting a workshop at 11 AM to work on 2025 agent benchmark forecasts. At the end I'll also ask about prob of extreme AI outcomes (full cognitive automation, full cognitive+physical automation, Dyson swarm, AI takeover) by 2040.
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Ajeya Cotra
@ajeya_cotra
Seems like we basically agree everything gets saturated (I had OSWorld lower because humans were weirdly low and I thought maybe many of the tasks were broken).
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Ajeya Cotra
@ajeya_cotra
I never felt like a "long timelines person" tbh, since 2019 my attitude has been "Holy crap this could be soon & we should prep." Left tails matter more than medians! And IME a lot of people who have "shorter" timelines than me forecast much weaker endpoints.
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