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Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesias
I will write about this at longer length, but I guess my main question about this is "overrated by who?" According to Morris' work, moderates overperform. It seems to me that a very large share of stakeholders in left-of-center politics deny this and thus underrate moderation.
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G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
I put a lot of work into this. I would be so happy if you would read and share: Why moving to the center won't save democrats:
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David Watson 🥑
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Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesias
It seems to me that disagreement about the sign of the effect (does moderation help or not) is much more significant than quibbling about the exact size of the effect. As long as you are running toward the finish line, you will do a *lot* better than someone sprinting backward.
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G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
i would say that the premium on moderation is worth enough to give candidates money in close seats and less than the amount of money that certain PACs are spending on conferences where everyone yells about progressives being mean to them on blue sky
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Matthew Yglesias
@mattyglesias
Okay, so you think Welcome PAC is overrating moderation. I think it would be really helpful if you'd written the article with more precise and specific claims like that. Do you think there's anyone influential in politics who's underrating it?
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Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle17
The uncertainty from structural factors (like being the party in power, inflation, etc) definitely matters more. Ideology also matters less than it did 15 years ago. But both sets of WAR models suggest that moderates win more often. They don't disagree as much as people think.
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Zac Hill
@zdch
This was my exact response; it feels extremely odd to me to write something whose straightforward empirical conclusion is "an average moderate Dem is value over replacement over an average Dem" and then have the Discourse be primarily 'lol moderate Dems'
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Dan Kent
@DanFKent
This reminds me of leftist anti-housing discourse. “Zoning reform helps but it won’t cut rents in half!!” You can’t critique a strategy for not being effective *enough* if you don’t have a better option.
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patricio Il Tasso🇺🇦
@IlTasso84592
When you look district by district, a strategy of running candidates progressive to moderate based on the district has always outperformed but that requires progressive to allow Centris in the party and not to pay to primary them in districts where the progresses aren't
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patricio Il Tasso🇺🇦
@IlTasso84592
I don't have the numbers to pack this up, but I will bet that a Democratic Party with only moderates has a better chance of winning than a Democratic party with only progressives, when winning is defined as controlling the house, Senate and or White House
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SDem🌐🏝️
@SockDem_
I’d be really interested in seeing a split between more establishment moderates and newer/younger challengers, even if still moderate (member of the New Dems/Blue Dogs)
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Throatwarbler T Mangrove
@mangrove_t
I don't know about this study, but progressives now like to paint their goals as raising the min. wage and ending dunning poor kids for lunch debt. They can't/won't admit that a lot of the problems Ds face now are downstream of Defund/Abolish/akshully-you-love-socialism stuff
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Daniel J
@danstevejon1
The question is what kind of “moderate”. Candidates seem as being part of the establishment or a corporate centrist aren’t going to do well, moderate or not. Moderates with an edge, like McCain or Manchin, are going to do well. People forget Obama ran to the right of HRC
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Goose Economics
@gooseonomics
Moderation is not a silver bullet. One of the biggest illusions in modern democracy - especially in the U.S. - is that there’s a silent centrist majority. A rational, calm, compromise-seeking bloc just waiting for someone "reasonable" to vote for. Data says otherwise. The
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Tony Cruz
@N0tAnthonyDavis
Kamala Harris IS more moderate than trump, but was PERCEIVED as extreme. Being moderate doesn’t matter, you just have to convince voters that you are.
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JGLouisville
@JGossman78
This thinking is why so many liberals get "red pilled". You don't suddenly become conservative when you become a Republican. You just find people who don't hate you because you fail a purity test. In the eyes of a leftist, you can never be far enough left. Conformist suck.
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Sunspot
@Dark_Matt3r_
What you are ignoring is that there is also a cost to moderation and if the effect is small it’s unclear whether the benefits are worth it.
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