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Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
Joking aside re: the
@JeffreyGoldberg
piece. If you read some of the exchanges, you get the sense that various aides believe reopening shipping lanes in the Red Sea will be speedy and straightforward. That's unrealistic, and it touches on an ideological schism in Trumpworld. 🧵
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Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
If you're a shipper or insurer, you are averse to uncertainty. Days or weeks of air strikes probably won't convince you it's safe to return to the Red Sea. You'll want to see either an extended period of calm or political change that dislodges the Houthis from power.
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Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
The former seems unlikely: the Houthis are far too ideological. The latter likely requires a lot more than a weeks-long campaign. The Saudi experience is not totally instructive here (for any number of reasons) but it bears repeating that they failed at this for 7+ years.
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Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
If the Trump administration wants to argue that toppling the Houthis is in America's national interest, it can make a compelling case. But that isn't what they're arguing, perhaps because no one wants to be in the position of telling the boss this will be harder than expected.
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Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
The hawks are correct that freedom of navigation is a core interest and that Biden's strikes were largely performative (as we wrote at the time). But the policy options that flow from this assessment are either unpalatable to the isolationist wing or insufficient to do the job.
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Gregg Carlstrom
@glcarlstrom
As an aside, this from
@JDVance
is disingenuous. Yes, Europe relies on Suez for trade more than America. But diverting ships around southern Africa raises the cost of trade for everyone. The price of sending a container from Shanghai to LA almost quadrupled last year, to ~$8,000.
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The Liberation Project
@TheLibProj
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Bob Bowker
@BobBowker
Absolutely agree. Trump’s people would be wise to seek advice from the Saudis and Egyptians about the limits to the possible where the Houthis are concerned.
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Christine
@majesticsiddhi
#Houthis have repeatedly publicly stated their off ramp. Ceasefire, Israel out of Gaza & humanitarian aid flowing to Palestinians. This leads to continued release of hostages. Also, former hostages & more than 100,000 🇮🇱 protesting for return to ceasefire. 🙏🏻☮️🕊️🇵🇸
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Fergus Meiklejohn 🇺🇦
@airuyi
It’s also true that Israeli wars are the cause of the Houthis actions so if reopening shipping lanes is the policy of the USA there is a much more effective action they can take than bombing Yemen
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LF Pros
@LfPros
You’re missing the gorilla in the room. Any serious attempt to dislodge the Houthis would result in Saudi Oil fields immolating.
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Sindbad
@sindbad605
Yes, but these people have no qualifications for their jobs. They are just morons, talk show hosts, etc.
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