Neat new paper from Priyam Raghuraman et al. that argues a strong El Nino following a persistent La Nina can explain the jump in global temperatures in 2023.
Conversation
![David Watson 🥑](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="96" height="96"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
Post your reply
They found that when these conditions are true a comparable spike occurs ~10% of the time in climate model control runs, though the record set in September 2023 (0.5C warmer than any prior Septembers) remains exceedingly unlikely (~0.01% chance).
This study leads support to the "El Nino behaving weirdly" explanation for 2023 warmth. However, as El Nino has faded their hypothesis may end up being empirically tested by whether or not the abnormal warmth persists or fades away in coming months.
Another year of good deeds. 
Starting our Annual Good Deed 2024, we are focusing this year on the plastic pollution of the oceans and are donating to .
Learn more:
hyrien.com/newsroom
Starting our Annual Good Deed 2024, we are focusing this year on the plastic pollution of the oceans and are donating to .
Learn more:
hyrien.com/newsroom
"NEW Raghuraman et al. (2024) argue that the jump in 2023 is not inconsistent with El Niño (from looking at pre-industrial control runs). (But they don’t demonstrate that the 2023 is actually predictable from this relationship)."
NSS
Quote
aaronshem
@aaronshem
Replying to @ncdave4life
None of the Schmidts of the world want to admit the weather can drive forcing and temperature anomalies to the extent it does.
Synoptician Paul Roundy has been pointing this out since spring 2023.
The most likely cause is simple weather.
The unusual timing of the el nino
Show more
Thought the warming began to rise before the El Nino became apparent ...
And the North Pacific and the North Atlantic also warmed ...
All not necessarily classic ENSO consistent
Yes, I've noticed this signal for years, but never got around to publishing it.
La Ninas are caused by persistent winds blowing the upper layer of water against continents. The warm water become concentrated with a relatively small surface area so energy is stored.
When the winds die down the warm water spreads out across the surface releasing stored heat.
Clean air regulations on international shipping actually caused warming due to less albedo. Apparently all that sulfur-dioxide, they were trying to reduce, creates clouds that reflect irradiance...
Discover more
Sourced from across X
The 2024 State of the Climate report, written by top climate scientists, begins:
"We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled."
Clear enough?
This may come as a surprise, but from 2013-2022 the majority (57%) of deaths from US tropical systems came from rain flooding, far more than what used to be the leader, storm surge. #Milton
Quote
Jeff Berardelli
@WeatherProf
0:10
#Milton’s relentless rain has flooded multiple parts of the Tampa Bay Area. Rivers are near or above record levels, neighborhoods are submerged. Most rivers crest this weekend and begin to gradually fall early this week.
Just had a major media reporter ask what bullying or aggression I have experienced with these 2 hurricanes. 1. Had a guy flip me off, 2. Had a dude apparently saving my tweets, because I removed a Tweet that had misinformation about storm Kirk, but it was reshared, "is this you?"
Show more
I spoke w/ Alex Marquardt () today on about the dual battle we face today w/ climate change-amplified weather extremes like #Helene & #Milton and rampant disinformation (a topic & I explore in our forthcoming book #ScienceUnderSiege). Please watch!
