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This is similar to what Lisa Dettling and I are finding from the mid-20th century baby boom period in the US. Paper forthcoming soon!
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Those seem like extremely small gains for "obtaining housing", which could covary with tons of latent variables.
The effect is very low. 3.8%?
That us more like "give people housing and 1 in 30 will have kids".
Breakdown of the paper:
The study examines how access to housing and mortgages affects fertility rates. The researchers use a natural experiment in Brazil where housing credit is allocated through a lottery system in "consórcios" (group lending mechanisms). This allows them to
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The observed effects align with what one might expect from the income effect. What’s interesting is that the elasticity of labor supply seems to differ between wealth from homeownership and income.
Homeownership appears to shift preferences more toward family time because this
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I agree with this takeaway but prefer this nuisance. Let's not just "give them housing" but reduce the barriers to homeownership.
Then what, give them money for diapers and formula? And then give them money for day care? And then give them money for a car to drive them around? You must be a socialist.
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Given the excess real estate in China, maybe demographic issues are solvable?
Would it make too much sense if the US feds divested the NPS land in downtown E. St. Louis, formed a PPP with DOGE guidance, and built housing for a mixed population of local St. Louisans and hard-working legal immigrants, helping turn a vacant area into a thriving community?
Then taxpayers pay for living expenses, food, healthcare, schooling, etc? What exactly does the recipient of said house do?
This is what I do on a daily basis:
Investor joins The Offer Haus.
They answer a few questions telling us about the property they are looking to invest in.
The calculator will show them how much they’ll save.
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1. Creates an entire offer in 10 minutes
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I like the sentiment, but are we sure there is not a selection bias issue in these numbers?
Are we certain that correlation equals causation here?
This would confirm my biases, but I'm also pretty sure that this doesn't come close to explaining a global precipitous drop in
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Brazil is a very different culture with vastly different value systems. The culture of younger generations right now as a whole is a bit sick, housing alone won’t change that. Even the idea of “give me housing or I won’t have children” is just pretty twisted. I like the child
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2-do-list for governments to increase birth rates:
1. Increase child benefit.
2. Free childcare.
3. Better parental leave.
4. Tax relief for families.
5. More flexible working hours.
6. Affordable housing.
7. Free healthcare.
8. Positive support for families.
9.
6. Affordable housing.
7. Free healthcare.
8. Positive support for families.
9.Show more
There are plenty of areas in this country with very affordable housing.
Is the fertility rate much higher in said places?
The history of the world is one of people struggling to survive and living in poverty, somehow they propagated the human race without subsidized house.
yes, but we've imported millions of low skill immigrants from cultures antithetical to western values over the last 15 years. in short, we've been fcked over by incompetent and malicious state actors that have no accountability.
Very interesting and promising. One question is if housing is scarce in Brazil and offers high risk-adjusted returns, wouldn’t winning a lottery earlier confer a positive wealth effect on the household, which may (also) boost fertility?
This study was done in Brazil. I agree there is a testable hypothesis here. But it needs to be redone in the US or Canada to actually be meaningful.
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GIF
Surely the causal effect of attaining housing doesn’t have to equal the causal effect of giving people housing right?
Explains the strong correlation between cities and lower fertility: houses are much pricier and only old, no longer fertile people can afford them.
Give the young easier access to housing, and they'll want to do a nest in it.
Interesting that it's not just giving out houses - they're giving them a mortgage credit to help with financing. The study used a "housing credit through a lottery system used. . . to randomly allocate lump-sums to participants to finance house purchases."
Wonder if we can extrapolate to US - would love us to try here and test this theory
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Give people under 25yo houses! What would happen if govt substantially subsidized ivf and other fertility treatments for people with housing
Perhaps housing, healthcare, income, and security all drive birthrates up from zero. 
The only thing preventing me from having more than 2 children is the cost burden of housing in Canada.
Great investments are all about spotting potential others overlook.
For example, an energy-efficient home doesn’t just save money; it also attracts high-value tenants.
What hidden features do you look for before sealing the deal?
Right, they didn’t have place to engage in coitus hence they didn’t have kids, now they do. 
Well the main question is, right now, are there too many ppl on our planet, or too little?
You mean “buying a house leads to families”
Because “giving people housing” isn’t a great idea.
