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David Watson 🥑
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Climate: A Hot Topic
@timelyman
The only way to fix something like this is through mandates -- cars/passenger trucks can only go up to a certain weight. And that has about as much chance to pass in the U.S. as single payer healthcare.
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George Singer
@georgewsinger
This isn't just a Prisoner's Dilemma under voluntary choice constraints:
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George Singer
@georgewsinger
Replying to @ATabarrok
Regulations and tariffs keep American cars big: vox.com/future-perfect
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Douglas Ritz
@douglasritz
“But that choice makes it much much more likely that you'll kill the other guy” Now you know why your car insurance has gone up 50%.
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Tristan Cunha
@cunha_tristan
It's important to note that the grey isn't crashes, it's two car crashes. Single car crashes are much more common. And the most common kind of heavy car, SUVs, struggle to do well in single car crash tests. They're particularly bad with rollovers, which are very dangerous.
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Chris Pate
@patefortworth
This doesnt consider the possibility of dying/getting hurt in a single car accident. Which I think is significantly higher if you’re in a huge vehicle (trucks/suv’s) because they just don’t handle as well.
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Paul Klee
@pgklee
People likely choose a larger vehicle for safety which include a myriad of outcomes beyond fatalities. Everything from permanently incapacitating injuries to broken bones. Maybe in a 4000 lb car you don’t die but sustain permanent paralysis but 6000lb vehicle you walk away.
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Thomas J Weiss
@thomasjweiss
Dumb question: if two 7000lb vehicles are involved in a crash, how do you distinguish between "Own" and "Other"? Or is this just a bad chart?
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Klemorali
@klemorali
I choose heavier vehicles because they're the only ones capable of doing the work I need my vehicles to do. I'm reasonably confident that the vast majority of the people driving large trucks consider the safety factor a bonus as opposed to a motivation.
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Wonkapotamus Pug
@Wonkpug
The difference at the extreme is 3 in 1000. Considering the 1000 is “two car crashes” the difference is infinitesimally small. Another hyped study meaning nothing.
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Claz
@ccllaazz
Also has created an arms race of "safety" through pushing larger and larger chunks of metal at increasingly high speeds, requiring a larger chunk... Meanwhile, Toyota makes a $14,000 pickup truck they can sell in the U.S. because of "safety"
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Why Choose 🇺🇸🥥🌴
@whycoose
The high probability of the other person killing you was what started the soccer Mom SUV craze in the first place Ir anything; this will cause more people to buy SUVs.
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rwsanders
@rwsanders
Alternatively: Some people choose heavier cars because they require space for more passengers, or more hauling capacity. While others seek larger vehicle for greater visibility, or perceived safety.
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George Davison
@George_Davison1
I don’t think people buy big cars for safety. The data show beyond 4000lbs the effect is small. They buy big cars because it’s fun and makes them feel powerful.
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Alex Alarga ⏹️
@AlexAlarga
The conclusion from that article should be: why the fk does the automobile industry get away with succesfully lobbying for their gas-guzzling SUVs/trucks to get a free pass on environmental/efficiency standards!?
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🌹The Turbanator🌹
@TRBN8D
To my understanding this correlation is even stronger with vehicle height. Vehicles with taller grilles (that tend to also be heavier) are exponentially more dangerous while also gradually becoming more popular due to the growth of SUVs and the popularity of "rugged" styling.
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Matt Staugler
@mstaugler
It is so infuriating to watch empty pickup trucks drive up and down the road knowing that for almost all of those drivers, a sedan would be plenty large for what they need. The death of the car market in the US has been sad to watch.
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Alex MacMillan
@ANMacMillan
Interesting eye balling own car survival not much apparent advantage between 4000lb and 7000lb; but huge negatives for other car survival across those same weights
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richard willey
@Wombative
I've long wanted some kind of reverse cowcatcher that will lift my nice light car above the enemy's engine block. I get all the benefits of good gas milage and I'm well positioned if I have a head on with a large car.
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Jonathan Mugan
@jmugan
It would help just about everything if we raised gas taxes. We could reduce taxes in other places to balance it out.
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Centrist Sisyphus 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
@Byedon2
Unfortunately, the weight of most electric vehicles available in the US moves the driver up that red line. An electric SUV can weigh 3 tons or more.
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Jedson Pinto
@JedsonPinto
Do people really take the "weight x safety" consideration as a first order or the "weight x substantial tax benefits for vehicles above 6000"? I would bet on the second one. Maybe a RDD could answer this question.
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Dominic Meagher
@dom_ma
For this one, I think 3rd party property insurance premiums would help, but less through the price mechanism and more by forcing people to be aware that their choice puts other people’s lives at risk.
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Zach C
@imadabouzu
But this is still a closed form example. Are not each externalities themselves external in unintended ways? Perhaps a rich description is more valuable than a cheap prescription, because we can choose different paths.
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Roger Bohn
@RogerBohn
True, but research on this is at least 20 years old, and perhaps 40. What is new? (One answer: heavy weight of EV batteries. So plug-in hybrids better for traffic deaths). Also continued growing pref for v large vehicles - a 30+ yr trend.
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Steve Spencer
@stevespencer
My undergrad major was Public Administration, half business half political science. We had a course in Public Economics. Which covered "externalities" in great detail. I went on to get an MBA and work on Wall Street and nobody at either place knew what an "externality" was.
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future Rob
@rob_future
Isant the issue speed tho? For every 1,000 pounds there's an exponential amount of energy being created. So an average car traveling 60mph has the energy of a cubertruck going 20mph... It's annoying, speed can and should be more effectively controlled by modern tools and policy.
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Ziemniak Premium @EkstraKartofel@masto.ai
@EkstraKartofel
So many comments ignore the systemic effect and assume the "other guy" won't buy a heavier car too. The equilibrium is everybody driving unnecessarily huge cars without any benefit to anyone's safety and with all the costs like increased fuel use & wear on the infrastructure.
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Orin Johnson
@freshsqueezed
Having gone from a Suburban that weighed 3 tonnes to a Hyundai Accent I understand how vulnerable it is and I figure my best defence is not being near big vehicles.
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Phil
@RockyRunPhil
People don’t look for heavier cars bc they are safer. They MIGHT look for safer cars that happen to be heavier. Watch car ads — ever seen one that says “now heavier with a 6000 lb curb weight!”?
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M White
@PJMatt
missing from this, though, is 'weight of the other car.' you can imply it, by simply saying "the other car is the 'own car' for THAT driver"... but there's a missing variable (or maybe just missing label) for difference-in-cars. seems 'obvious' but its not there.
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Siddharth Chatterjee
@123sidch
One quick (and, oversimplified) question: if each person buys the heaviest car they can afford (all persons can afford the same set of cars), given the cars owned by all others, then do they all buy the same car?
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YIMBY 🇺🇸🇹🇼🇺🇦
@foodinmouth
But this is America. I don't think Americans care about the red line even if you showed them before buying.
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Emily Ledbetter
@WinsomeWonder
I got the heavier car because I have to drive around with 5 car seats and there are no station wagons allowed due to regulations.
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Dylan Malone
@dylanmalone
I drive a Lexus ES300h (just a fancy Toyota Camry), it's a mid sized sedan. I love this vehicle so much. 44mpg, comfortable. Every feature you could ever want. But always in the back of my mind is the fact that I'm surrounded by small people in giant vehicles who might kill me.
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Dez
@desdemyer
Unfortunately, it quickly turns from 'protect myself and my kids' to 'insulate myself from the consequences of driving like a jerk.'
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Ernesto Gavassa Pérez
@GavassaPerez
Not sure if it’s a pure externality setup. Isn’t the greater safety of a heavier car a feature that influences the price? I interpret the problem as a social dilemma: NE is the selfish optimum (all with heavier car), but everyone would prefer lighter cars (as they’re cheaper).
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J McLane
@alsoJMc
Presumably these risks are balanced in insurance premiums as a driver is liable for the death of another. Not clear it’s an externality if it’s internalized in the cost of ownership.
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the hill ensemble 🇵🇸
@steviewelles55
Right and in this moral quandary, most people will choose themselves/their families over "the other guy". Regulators have failed us all and instead of browbeating SUV drivers, it's them that should be the focus of our ire.
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KidoftheBlackHole 👿👽👾🔥🧨🧧💀💣
@MaratLives
After I was in a major auto accident my orthopedic surgeon told me to get a bigger vehicle so I'd be the guy who took someone out rather than the guy who gets taken out. So I think this is an explicit thing more than people are implying
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bleydon
@b_leydon
If it weren't for the fuel costs and hassle of parking I think most of us would be driving the War Rig from Furiosa.
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Captain Person
@captainperson
this is also where the (inevitable, I think) driverless car AI will end up, I believe - prioritizing the passengers over whoever will be hit
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SantiG
@santitheos
Democracy is a mucho better example, much more intuitive. 51% impose externalities on the other 49%.
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Alegria do Povo
@alegria_do
I wonder how one-car accidents affect the overall picture of lives saved and lives lost. How many one-car accidents are there compared to 2 of more car accidents?
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Pablo Mansfield
@mansfield_pablo
Graph of basic physics. The real issue is what data was excluded so as to derive these curves. For example, this needs to be controlled for # of passengers/vehicle, & other factors. In order to do independent analysis, we need the actual data. The conclusion may be more nuanced.
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maryann
@maryannmom
Ironic. Just tweeted about the 8,000 pound Denali Truck. The thing could take out a town. I wish the US invested in mass transit
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JusDayDa
@JusDayDa
Two drivers of this heavier vehicle trend 1- Americans drive SUV’s more than any other country 2- Hybrids/EV’s are heavier and accelerate faster than equivalent pure gasoline/internal combustion vehicles vehicles shifted heavier since 2014 so to did deaths
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GBlue5
@GBlue5a
I've never been a fan of huge non-commercial vehicles. But how do electrics and hybrid batteries play into this?
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Daniel Lee
@realdanlee
Is this controlled for type of accident, location, time of day, speed, age of driver, road surface, any of the many variables that could also be involved?
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Kite
@KiteX3
For context, a Ford F-150 weighs about 4000lbs, with some of the EcoBoost versions weighing up to 5500lbs. It's interesting to me that the biggest socially acceptable vehicle also happens to be near the intersection of the two curves.
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Josh Mangum
@joshmangum
People buy bigger cars for more capacity. Either passenger seats, cargo, or towing. But you can’t buy a small powerful truck as is common in Japan or Australia because CAFE standards require the longer wider wheelbase. …
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A-hole Ghost
@hole_ghost
We incentivize cost-shifting onto those who can least afford it in all kinds of deadly ways—the tragedy of the common sense.
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Charles
@CCC_Aggregate
This is flawed, larger trucks IE diesels are significantly more likely to be traveling on the highway thus accidents with them have higher fatality rates 🙄
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Brad
@bradzaguate
Extremely curious: do those new heavier (hence, more expensive) cars have better anti-crash? And are those crashes the fault of the heavier car? I'm wondering if the deaths are caused by the other car slamming into the big car and not the other way around.
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Scott Turley
@scottjayturley
I’m confused by the graph. If you’re in a heavy car and get hit by a heavy car, which line do you end up on, the red or the black?
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Dan
@CLE_Sports88
Also highlights the importance of regulations. People are selfish and they will do selfish things when given the choice
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Niccolo
@niccmach993
This is just classic prisoner's dilemma, with an extra push towards the Nash equilibrium coming from suburban mom's in SUVs
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Tom Jedrzejewicz
@tomjedrz
Interesting ethical question ... should you choose a big car that cuts your risk by 30% and increases the risk for the other guy by 500%?
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Dave
@rehsif02
So what percentage of cars being big cars indicates owners of large cars should increase restrictions on them?
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Gordon Herriman
@GordonHerriman
Who chooses a heavier vehicle? I’ll take the one that weighs the most please! Vehicles are chosen based on utility, capacity for passengers, hauling, towing, price, style … not weight. By this reasoning no one should buy an EV with its extra 100’s of kg’s in battery weight.
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David Tennant 🐟
@DavidTennantUK
This doesn’t make sense. Because from the ‘other car’s’ perspective he’s driving his own car and should therefore be on gray line.
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