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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods--but that's simply not true. This was undoubtedly an extreme event, but messaging rapidly escalated beginning ~12 hrs prior. Flood Watch mid PM, "heads up" outlook late PM, flash flood warnings ~1am.
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Peter Mullinax
@wxmvpete
WPC issued as many as six MPDs for the deadly flash flooding in the TX Hill Country starting yesterday evening and lasting through much of today. The first MPD generally set the stage for what was to come, while the next three shown were as the event unfolded.
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David Watson 🥑
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
As always, this is not to blame the victims! Quite the opposite; this truly was a sudden & massive event and occurred at worst possible time (middle of the night). But problem, once again, was not a bad weather prediction: it was one of "last mile" forecast/warning dissemination.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
I am not aware of the details surrounding staffing levels at the local NWS offices involved, nor how that might have played into timing/sequence of warnings involved. But I do know that locations that flooded catastrophically had at least 1-2+ hours of direct warning from NWS.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
One thing I do know is that this part of TX Hill Country is (in)famous for sudden and violent flood risk; that's an intrinsic product of being a hilly region with "flashy" watersheds subject to occasional but very extreme precipitation events arising from bathtub-warm Gulf.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
I'm not really clear on why a region so well known for its severe flash flood susceptibly apparently did not have a better warning system in place. That's something I'm sure others with better local knowledge can dissect in greater details.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
But this does illustrate a few tragic and uncomfortable truths. The first is that even quite good weather forecasts do not automatically translate into life-saving predictions--there's a lot of other work that has to take place to contextualize the forecast and ensure it gets to
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
The second is that the NWS historically has done a very good job at that forecast contextualization (outreach to local governments, emergency managers, outdoor recreation facilities, etc.). But that's one of the first things to go away when offices are critically understaffed.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
The third is that this kind of record-shattering rain (caused by slow-moving torrential thunderstorms) event is *precisely* that which is increasing the fastest in warming climate. So it's not a question of whether climate change played a role--it's only a question of how much.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
The fourth is that *exact* location and intensity localized to regional-scale convective storms (i.e., clusters of intense thunderstorms) are something that, in almost all cases, cannot be pinpointed days in advance with extant predictive tools--even in theory.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
That means that while predictions can correctly highlight specific regions at high risk of extreme rainfall/flash floods from such events (as was the case here), it's not possible to predict the exact amount of rain at specific points from t-storm downpours so far in advance.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
Predicting such storms is at the cutting edge of science right now, and the stakes are rising in a warming world in which they are intensifying. Yet this is precisely the kind of research that NOAA/NSF have funded in the U.S. over decades that is at imminent risk of disappearing.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
Additionally, some of NOAA's very high resolution convective-resolving models (designed specifically for this purpose) were the ones that best predicted this incipient disaster. Yet these very same models are on the chopping block this year with the proposed NOAA budget.
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
All of this is to say: I think it's simply untrue to say this is a story about how the NWS somehow made a bad prediction or did not issue timely warnings in this case--that's just demonstrably untrue. The more proximal causes of the tragedy are otherwise. But...
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Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
But there are clear intersections between flood disaster in TX & ongoing conversations surrounding federal budget & massive cuts to NWS operations & NOAA/NASA/NSF weather/climate research--precisely at a moment in which we are seeing more events like this due to climate change.
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Jana
@TechieTex
You are spot on. We did get adequate warning that, within a specific region, we would see a water bomb. We definitely need to work on flood evacuation protocol. Maybe we install sirens along the river and block further development. Messaging was there though.
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Marlo Van Marck 🌎🍄🐝🇨🇦
@MarloVanMarck
And people got alerts on their phones:
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AccuWeather
@accuweather
A Kerrville resident recounts her escape from the deadly flash flooding that claimed 24 lives and left more than two dozen missing in central Texas. bit.ly/40F4JMC
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dcnh
@dcnh42
Democrats have to blame this on the President because it is all they have.
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Sam Romshek
@samromshek
Exactly. The pieces were there for an extreme event, although very few if any could have predicted an event THIS devastating when it’s very difficult to wrap your mind around the sheer magnitude of what’s possible. The NWS did a really good job all things considered.
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All Ornamental
@PeppermintScone
Again, local guy (an a-s BTW) on ground blamed NWS. We need detailed analysis of staffing changes, shift scheduling, impact from less balloon launches. Also of morale and stress on staff from being stretched and DOGED. (Old admins did this.)
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THE_SmokeDoctor
@THEPhil12
Where were the advisories and warnings on Wednesday and Thursday to prepare them and allow organized evacuations as updated, higher confidence forecasts and advisories/warnings were issued? Just like Helene and North Carolina last fall. Enough with the excuses.
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PEACE & LOVE 🪺🐦‍⬛
@WorkHardBeNice1
Texas has flash floods all the time, which is typically no reason to evacuate these areas where people died. This time a 40+ft wall of water is a different story, and there should have been a warning to "evacuate".
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Kev
@FeckerLy
The officer just said 7 foot was predicted by NWS . The actual was 29 foot . How wrong could they be ? In May every previous director of NOAA/NWS signed a letter saying DOGE cuts would seriously affect prediction and lead to loss of life . Here we are .
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Penelope
@PenelopeDbldee
There was a meso discussion released ahead of the floods. EMA also had swift water rescue/response in place before this hit. This was MORE than forecast.
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randiego2
@randiego2
Given the history of the area, it’s outrageous that they didn’t evacuate as soon as the flash flood warning was issued. Human memory is flawed and this is why we have safety regulations everywhere.
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Lake County Naturalist 🐿️🐾
@LCnaturalist
I can’t. I can’t anymore. The NWS, NOAA, storm chasers are some of the nicest people you will ever meet. They risk their lives to keep people safe. No, they are not always correct. But their intentions are pure. Go pray to your God to save you. I’m done.
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MaryLouWestin
@LouWestin
I’ve been caught in a Texas flash flood and they are something that I think people have a hard time understanding. People on here blaming this on the current administration and injecting politics into it while families wait to hear if they find their babies is disgusting. Thank u
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Thomas Treibel
@TomTreibel
With it being a holiday many were just enjoying a nice day off and not paying attention to warnings no doubt. The same thing happened with the LA fires they had a good 12hr warning of severe Santana's and yet leadership was busy with a Presidential visit,
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Karlee🇺🇸🍊
@lowkeykarlee
Can you wait until all the bodies are recovered before you blaming some of the very same people missing right now. Read the fucking room. This is not the time or the place to point blame. Show some fucking respect.
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Mark
@Redfishslayer61
😂🤣😂🤣 you are the CNN that told everyone Hunter’s laptop was Russian disinformation, Joe didn’t have dementia, Kamala was winning to name a few of your 🐂 shit 💩 lies!!
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John Preston
@ArlanKels
Reality never changes
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John Preston
@ArlanKels
Replying to @AdamLucioWX
What's real bad is people just ignore all of it. Oh flood potential? Naw it won't happen to me. Too hot? Pfft, I got AC. Tornadoes? They don't happen here.
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Kev
@FeckerLy
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JoeinNJfightsfordemocracy
@progavalanche
In May every past director of the National Weather Service signed a letter warning DOGE cuts to NOAA & NWS would cause needless loss of life. We didn’t have to wait until after the midterms to see the impact of this Republican policy. #DemVoice1 #wtpBLUE
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