Post

Conversation

David Watson 🥑
Post your reply

Matthew Chang
@matthewachang
Correlation is not causation. Omg I said the cliche. Companies that are seeking visa workers are more likely to be seeking an IPO. “Startups that hire expensive accounting and investment banking firms are more likely to have and ipo” Duh.
203
Garett Jones
@GarettJones
This study has randomization-- the word "lottery" is right in the post! And it compares firms who won the lottery to firms who didn't. That's causation.
159
Bob Hyneman
@BobhynemanUSA
". . . by winning an H1-B lottery . . ." Free Market Idea: (Just spitballing) Lotteries are a very poor method of allocation. If there really is and H1-B lottery, then instead those visas should be auctioned (and re-salable.)
980
Garett Jones
@GarettJones
I prefer an auction myself, but a lottery allows causal identification [where the winners are usually worse than in the auction system I favor!]
900
DGonzalez
@MGAERagnarok
Junk pseudoscience, 1. No causality between ONE H1-B employee and company's success 5 years down the road. 2. The overwhelming majority of H1Bs go to TATA, Cognizant, MSFT,AMZN,GOOG. 3.This is pure oligarchic propaganda to keep the pipeline of H1Bs open for the tech plantations.
2.3K
Garett Jones
@GarettJones
Go disprove it! Plenty of academic careers built from debunking fake research. Hundred dollar bills right there on the ground, waiting for you to take them
10
eigenrobot
@eigenrobot
bruh
Quote
eigenrobot
@eigenrobot
Replying to @eigenrobot
going through the guts of the paper now and lmfao stick a fork in that causal mechanism to be very clear: the authors are arguing that these h1b workers are providing insane value to tech firms primarily by driving patentable innovation despite earning <$100k per annum
Image
Image
287
George Journeys 🐦‍⬛
@GeorgeJourneys
This is an irrationally large posited effect size given the scale of the intervention and almost certainly results from an underspecified/misspecified model.
101
Clark H
@Clarksterh
Hard to get a handle on the body-shop-flood problem since there have been several attempts to fix it over last few years, probably with some success (eg no longer allowing duplicate entries), but still probably close to 30% of approved H1b are not bespoke?
Quote
Clark H
@Clarksterh
Replying to @AlecStapp and @Noahpinion
Conceivable that a policy such as one admin is doing will *increase* the pct of high quality H1b visas approved by decreasing flood of applications from body shops. Visa system has reformed mult times trying to fix this prob (body shop floods), but it still exists.
776
Maynard Handley 🟦
@handleym99
Uh, even if the above numbers are correct, all you can say is that: hiring an H1B CORRELATES with 23% increase… The fact that people who say “correlation is not causation” every fscking day are happy to make this mistake when it aligns with their prejudices tells you everything
234
Michael J.J. Tiffany
@kubla
That’s a huge effect size. Is it possible that pre-IPO startups are better than other startups at high-red-tape processes of all kinds?
912
Jake M
@Jmath777
Ever thought to consider why this highly skilled worker is not available in the US?
296
Barry Hashimoto
@barryhashimoto
Nice identification, but the MR pitch overstates it. Evidence is from a narrow set of H-1B-filing startups (2008–15), with funding and patents giving only a grainy image of firm performance. Local, dated, external validity limited by big changes in technology and interest rates.
97
Bitwise Xor
@Zobbie137
Clearly, not all H1-Bs are equal. The study could just be capturing high-growth companies on the pre-IPO path with a need for headcount.
74
Roane
@RoaneDraths
I'm not a fan of the policy but also if above is true then it's worth $100k (or pick a number). There's an equilibrium here too, right?
224
Kyle Aretae
@aretae
As I commented on Alex's post ... there's a big difference between the rare case of sili valley tech superstar and middle America cheap tech labor. Both use h1b.
186
Frank
@FrankCos001
@GarettJones
Cool, So I’m supposed to be thrilled about being laid off because somewhere a startup gets a shiny new H1B that bumps their IPO odds by 1.5%? Should I bake them cookies too while I’m packing up my desk?
81
AGI acceleration enjoyer
@RightTechGadfly
This just doesn't mesh with the experience on the ground of anyone in the tech industry. We are tired of studies that demand we ignore what we can see for ourselves. Study probably has all sorts of confounders and irregularities. Don't care enough to debunk it. It's wrong.
110
Nour Simulation
@SustGeoLove
Interesting data on IPOs and talent flow! Reflects our global needs. The UAE is stepping up as a talent hub with robust policies and opportunities, making it a prime destination for skilled professionals. 🌍
111
Brian🇲🇽🇮🇱
@SpeakingBee
This is huge support for Trump’s reform, if the study is true. Under the lottery, startups almost never got H-1Bs. Now they can guarantee one for just $100,000 and the value they gain is many times more than that, so they will be eager to pay the fee. Trump wins again.
198
Haya Innovator
@HayaAI_guru
Boosting skilled talent is key for IPO success, sparking regional growth. Talent is the backbone of innovation. Let's strategize for a brighter future!
80
HumeHealth
@myhumehealth
Ad
Meet the AI-powered wearable over 1.2 million users rely on Hume Band continuously scans your biomarkers, catches health issues early, and guides you to smarter choices for a longer life. Click now to get 40% OFF + free shipping for a limited time only!
From humehealth.com
1.5M