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Is this not fully explained by voter lag on reacting to economic conditions, which ~always happens?
From social issues to the economy, tap into which candidate stands for what—and why.
THE CRIME STAT IS LITERALLY A LIE!!!!!! They revised the numbers showing crime up.
I am very hopeful that dem party will put Stancil in charge of future elections
"lowest level in the last few years" is a hilarious hedge.
"Its lower now than the insanely high rates we caused before we started to pretend about the border for votes"
Because none of it was true - the economy for our family is worse than the Great Recession despite slight increases in wages and FBI revised their crime statistics up.
I think this is a big deal, though I also wonder to what extent people are just signalling their partisan affiliation by giving positive or negative answers to these questions based on their party being in power or not.
Voters don’t feel inflation the way it’s measured.
They know they can’t buy a house. They don’t care if it’s because of CPI or interest rates.
They know the rent downtown in their urbanizing environment is up. They don’t care if it’s balanced by cheap rural homes.
Or maybe voters understood those things, but these are just the wrong measures? (Stock market, wages, and police reports are different from people’s experiences with financial or personal security.)
This is true but misleading. The rate of inflation has declined, meaning prices are still going up just not as much as they did in 2021-2022. We need to stop saying "inflation is coming down." It gives the impression prices are not rising.
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We need to have a measure of inequality that’s communicable in one number just like inflation. It needs to be something you can ask voters about and candidates about and it just makes sense.
“Inequality is up 17% this year, what do you propose to do about this sir?”
But how do you fix that? What is the secret to combating misinformation/disinformation? Especially when it is repeated by the preferred information outlets for many of these voters?
I haven’t heard any answers better than “Go on Theo Von” so maybe that’s the right answer
Yes. But also Stancil instance about people imagining strains, wasn’t great.
"It appears as though we were unsuccessful in convincing people in severe personal debt, precarious jobs and with unaffordable housing that they're doing great and should thank us"
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David Doney
@David_Charts
11 of 12 key economic measures are better than when Biden started, even adjusted for inflation ("real").
9 of 12 better than pre-pandemic.
I prefer comparing 2019 and 2023 full-year data, but this point-in-time comparison is helpful too. All data from FRED.
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People might want to stop using the term "low information voters." It's not someone else's fault they don't share your politics hobby. They're average information: you (and I) are high information.
What happens if Trump and Kamala TIE 269-269?
It cold come down to a coin toss... literally
In IOWA.
drawstraws.film
2:08
Win Lose or Draw Straws for America
Violent crime down, but property crime up and in the news.
Inflation rate is down recently, but paychecks have not universally kept pace.
Immigration being down in the last quarter isn't the win you assume it is.
How do progressives not see this?
Even if we have communicated it, they would have dismissed it, Hunter. They never believe us on anything.
Dems don’t seem to ever successfully communicate their policies and achievements. It’s like they don’t like to brag. It also doesn’t seem to get media attention. Never bombastic enough.
Economy is not about stock market (that is also inflationary) but standard living for each family.
Info..
...or Propaganda?
Mainstream Corporate News "Information" was Soundly Rejected by these results.
People know these outlets aren't truthful, nor objective.
What happens if Trump and Kamala TIE 269-269?
It cold come down to a coin toss... literally
In IOWA.
drawstraws.film
Someone really needs to send this to Nate Silver. He doesn't believe that people's perceptions are formed by the media...
Also, #2 and #4 are intentionally deceptive on this chart. Both inflation and illegal border crossings went to extremely high levels over the past 4 years. Returning to prior normal increases doesn't "fix" the extreme hardship caused by the accumulated 4 years.
because people want to just complain. they don't want to be happy. there is no point in improving things
Stancil is so obviously right about this and it's baffling how hard people shit on him for saying it.
Could have went on the #1 Podcast in America and communicated to a HUGE audience.
But nah, ain't nobody got time for that.
Abso-fucking-lutely!! They're the WORST at controlling the narrative and bragging about their victories
Stancil's Theory of Media Ecosystems sounds like something I'd hear about in a college class.
I would argue they didn’t even try communicating .Case in point, the tariffs. Instead of calling a spade a spade they called it “Trump tax”
1st question is a propagandist lie. crime is up but if you dont enforce the law and make arrests it cant be documented.
2nd question is such an obvious propagandist lie it makes me sick. imagine believing the headline inflation statistics are real.
No, the problem is what Democrats called wins were mostly corporate handouts or half-measures.
Educated people are hard to manage. Autocrats, dictators and tyrants control investment in education. Critical thinking is hard to confine to productivity that serves the State. China has its social credit system to manage the free thinkers.
The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad
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And claiming inflation has declined is disingenuous at best. Inflation is cumulative. It may be lower one year compared to the last, but the overall figure still requires combining both years.
Inflation was RAMPANT from ‘21 to the beginning of ‘24–just because it’s settled down
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How can you be a data scientist and not know how to appropriately normalize your data or understand the difference between rate and AUC?
People don’t give a fuck about your made up charts or your out-of-context stats probably with newly redefined words to fit your narrative. The chart does not negate PEOPLES REALITY. Their reality is they cannot afford life, period. Women and girls are being raped and murdered by
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And illegal crossings have unequivocally been at historic levels, I’m not even sure how anyone could think different.
Even CNN thought Biden was bad for the stock market. It’s recovered somewhat, but for most of the four years he’s been president, it was terrible.
Democrats need to start playing dirty. The concept of goodwill rivalry has been over since 2016, they need to spam pictures of rising prices under Trump's tariffs.
x.com/darioperkins/s Will keep sharing this shit until people understand
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Dario Perkins
@darioperkins
hope this helps
Dem wins? How about “Dem stimmies that Summers warned against played a big part in inflation, which is now going down.” or “crime has been retreating from a spike induced by BLM and Dem policies”?
Lol. The framing of these questions is absolutely hilarious. Inflation and illegal immigration are both cumulative. The destruction your dementia patient wrought on working class people is an absolute catastrophe and your party paid the price for it this week.
The only way to unglue people from their "media ecosystems" would be to jarringly improve their lives, which democrats have not done in any meaningful way since the ACA. There is enough wealth in this country to do this but Dems are too scared to have that conversation
How do you communicate with "low info" voters when there is not factual media any more? FoxNews and other outlets are pure propaganda
Question one gives inadequate time frame.
Question 3 is irrelavant as inflation effects stock prices too. Of course the market is at all time highs. It couldn't not be.
Question 4 is patently absurd, as we don't DOCUMENT the crossings of UNDOCUMENTED immigrants.
You could easily rewrite the questions in such a way that more R voters would agree with the correct answers because most voters are just responding based on affect.
Part of this was the failure of Dems to provide any means of countering right wing rage bait about crime and immigration, unhelpful by some far leftists idealism.
These are semantics:
Crime is higher
Inflation and illegal immigration are higher and asking people to the compounding effect is not wise
Not all Americans are invested in stocks
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