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It makes a MUCH bigger diff to go from being outspent 2-1 to parity, than to go from parity to 1.1-1 (the case in well-funded races). And the more $$$ spent, the less each $ matters.
Rs won 3/4 of these in 2022, due in part to lack of Dem $$$. Dems can't let that happen again.
To be frank, if you're a small-dollar donor who wants your $$$ to REALLY matter, I'd advise donating to a local/state leg race for similar reasons.
But if you want to help decide control of Congress, the four races listed above are far and away where $$$ would do the most good.
Obligatory ActBlue links. Not really my thing, but it'd be wrong to answer "where should Dems donate?", and NOT provide links to do exactly that.
Marlinga: secure.actblue.com/donate/marling
Tran: secure.actblue.com/donate/derek-t
Bynum: secure.actblue.com/donate/janelle
Shah:
100%. It's pretty late in the cycle tho - Labor Day (aka spending time) starts next week.
Ensuring a Democratic majority depends on winning in Ohio, Montana, Nevada, and Arizona—critical battlegrounds. If Republicans take these, they could control the Senate.
Chip in $4 to our Defend the Senate Fund and help keep these battleground seats BLUE.
Michelle Steel isn’t losing imo, she is well respected as a cooler head within the GOP
THANK YOU!!
MI-10 is so incredibly competativw but gets written off because of it being so macomb based. Rochester and rochester hills are huge and bolting left!! Not to mention, macomb county has voted for Marlinga before. It was hung out to dry last year and was so close
Is that larger spreadsheet publicly accessible? Would love to see the rest of the matchups.
This is absolutely correct, if you go to 24cast.org it’s crazy how much a few hundred thousand would bring up dems chances. in MI-10 $650k would take predictions from R+3.6 to a tie
Can also donate to Brian Derrick’s platform, Oath, which targets races based on impact/your priorities AND they don’t sell your data! No annoying texts/emails!
Bynum and Tran are the only formidable ones out of those 4
Nominating Shah was a HUGE mistake on the AZ-01 democrats
The one outlier here is Amish Shah, who is running a very nimble campaign on less money - he was outspent in the primary and won anyway
When is that cash on hand reporting from for AZ01/Shah? The filing just before the primary, before Shah won?
Why aren’t they giving Marlinga money?! Sometimes it’s just really tough to be a democrat when they’re just being dumb.
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Jon Tester was already prepared
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Reed Galen
@reedgalen
.@SheehyforMT lacks any sort of Montana values.
Montana GOP Candidate Tim Sheehy Caught on Audio Talking About “Drunk Indians at 8 a.m.” yahoo.com/news/montana-g
LETS GOOOO
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Red Lion Politics
@lion_politics
Jon Tester is officially DOA.
Donald Trump did zero campaign events today. Is he healthy enough to serve as President? Many people are asking this.