The big question about Waymo in 2026 is going to be "how do they get enough cars to service all this new territory?" Three options:
• Keep retrofitting expensive and no-longer-produced I-PACES
• Pay 105% tariffs to import Zeekrs
• Speed-run introduction of Hyundai vehicles
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The Hyundai option would obviously be the best for them but I doubt they'll achieve large-scale production before 2027. They only announced the partnership a year ago and just started testing them publicly a couple of weeks ago.
What’s stopping jaguar from restarting i-pace production specially for google given the demand? If I’m google I’m sending jaguar billions to restart production. How can they say no
I don't know the details but I assume that if this were attractive to JLR they would have not shut down the line last year.
Yeah. And even if they have to pay $50k each for 10,000 vehicles, that's $500M — not a huge price to pay to keep their growth on track.
Thoughts on pony and weride being able to scale internationally quicker due to better cost structure / OEM partnerships?
I agree that they manufacture vehicles. Not sure about the FSD-capable part.
What do you think about a major legacy OEMs going All-In on building Waymo shells with AV design from the ground up?
I could see that happening but it's a 5-10 years from now thing, not a 2027 thing.
4th option : license the GM Cruise Origin robotaxi that was well thought of…
They do not pay 105% tariffs. I swear nobody does any research. They can build 10-20k vehicles a year now, and that's without a full plant.
Interesting, I did not know about this. I've asked Waymo about it several times and they are
. I guess they don't want to draw attention to it.
Biggest cost and bottleneck is gonna be GPUs/TPUs and then sensor suite. Underlying car is probably third on the list
So are you admitting that their solution works? I keep getting mixed signals about Waymo - it either works but they can’t get enough cars OR their tech stack is not scalable. Which is it?
Option 4: Walk into White House, put a gold bar on his table. Get an exemption to the 105% tariff. Import Zeekrs
Waymo needs to come out of the shadows a bit. The tech is awesome but the finances remain a complete mystery. Is this just Uber, round 2?
Have you seen anything on what it takes to keep these vehicles clean / repair / etc? The whole thing trends towards looking like a mass
Gen 6 Waymo’s will have to be a big part of the expansion (Hyundai + Zeekr)
Zeekr RT is planned to be mass produced eventually in Mesa Arizona by Magna/Zeekr/Waymo plant.
Waymo will have to either take a capex hit in the tens of billions or a significant margin hit on leases to achieve significant scale.
San Diego market is using Chinese made EVs.
Funny how there are all sorts of regs that make me importing a Toyota not sold in the US impossible but Chinese EVs? No problem.
Autonomous tech throttles without fleet scalability. If the sourcing plan relies on retrofits and tariffs, San Diego 2026 looks oversold.
To be honest both #1 and #2 are perfectly fine. At this stage, profitability really doesn't matter at all as Long as there's a path to profitability one day.
All of the above. I think Waymo will finish retrofitting any remaining I-Paces. Then they will retrofit/deploy the Zeekrs. The Zeekr numbers are limited due to tariffs but the remaining I-Paces+Zeekrs should hold them off for a year or so until the Ioniq 5 arrives.