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The big question about Waymo in 2026 is going to be "how do they get enough cars to service all this new territory?" Three options: • Keep retrofitting expensive and no-longer-produced I-PACES • Pay 105% tariffs to import Zeekrs • Speed-run introduction of Hyundai vehicles
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Waymo
@Waymo
We're officially authorized to drive fully autonomously across more of the Golden State. Next stop: welcoming riders in San Diego in mid-2026! ☀️
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David Watson 🥑
The Hyundai option would obviously be the best for them but I doubt they'll achieve large-scale production before 2027. They only announced the partnership a year ago and just started testing them publicly a couple of weeks ago.
What’s stopping jaguar from restarting i-pace production specially for google given the demand? If I’m google I’m sending jaguar billions to restart production. How can they say no
Yeah. And even if they have to pay $50k each for 10,000 vehicles, that's $500M — not a huge price to pay to keep their growth on track.
They do not pay 105% tariffs. I swear nobody does any research. They can build 10-20k vehicles a year now, and that's without a full plant.
Waymo is using Zeekr for their next generation robotaxi, since those are Chinese how are they able to do that without massive extra costs
Answer by Grok
How Waymo Uses Zeekr Vehicles Despite US Restrictions on Chinese Imports Waymo's partnership with Zeekr (a Geely-owned Chinese EV brand) for its next-generation robotaxi—the Zeekr RT (based on the Zeekr Mix minivan)—dates back to 2021 and remains active as of November 2025. While Zeekr vehicles are Chinese-origin, Waymo has navigated US tariffs (100% on Chinese EVs, potentially up to 145% under recent Trump escalations) and connected vehicle bans through a combination of design attribution, import strategies, exemptions, and US-based assembly. This keeps added costs manageable, estimated at 20–50% of base vehicle price rather than prohibitive. Below, I'll break it down. Key Structural Factors Enabling the Partnership Swedish Design and Engineering: The Zeekr RT is designed and developed at Zeekr's China Europe Vehicle Technology Centre (CEVT) in Gothenburg, Sweden—not China. This leverages Geely's ownership of Volvo (Swedish) and positions the vehicle as a "European-designed" platform under US trade rules, potentially qualifying for lower duties or exemptions from full Chinese EV tariffs. Swedish engineering helps differentiate it from pure Chinese imports like BYD models. No Chinese Autonomy Tech: Waymo integrates its own US-developed hardware and software (the 6th-gen Waymo Driver, including LiDAR, cameras, radars, and compute) after import. The base Zeekr chassis arrives without connected vehicle software, sensors, or telematics from China, sidestepping the January 2025 Commerce Department ban on Chinese/Russian-origin autonomy tech. Waymo has publicly assured regulators that "China has nothing to do with the vital tech." Import and Assembly Strategies to Minimize Tariffs Kit or Chassis-Only Imports: Rather than importing fully assembled vehicles (which trigger 100%+ EV tariffs), Waymo imports Zeekr vehicles as incomplete "kits" or base chassis (e.g., body, powertrain, battery). Final assembly—including adding Waymo's autonomy suite—happens at Waymo's Mesa, Arizona facility in partnership with Magna International. This "kit assembly" workaround classifies imports as parts (tariffs 25–50% on auto components) rather than finished automobiles, slashing costs by 50–75%. Forbes reported this as Waymo's explicit plan in May 2025, allowing $40,000 base Zeekr chassis to avoid the full $40,000+ tariff hit. US Final Integration: The Arizona plant handles outfitting for "tens of thousands" of vehicles annually, ensuring the end product is "US-assembled." This boosts local jobs (aligning with Trump-era incentives) and may qualify for tariff reductions or credits under Section 301 exemptions for substantial US value-add. Tariffs, Exemptions, and Cost Impact Current Tariff Exposure: Base imports face ~25% on steel/aluminum and up to 50% on EV batteries/components, but exemptions apply. Waymo received a Commerce Department "hardship ruling" in early 2025 for Chinese electronics (pre-ban imports) and likely secured similar relief for Zeekr kits due to its scale (original 100,000-unit order) and national security assurances (no data back to China). Pre-tariff prototypes (spotted in SF/Phoenix since 2024) incurred no duties. No Full Exemption, But Not "Massive" Costs: Analysts estimate incremental costs at $10,000–$20,000 per vehicle (vs. $40,000+ for full tariffs), or ~25–50% of the $40,000 base price. Waymo absorbs some via Alphabet's $5B+ annual AV investment, but it's offset by: Zeekr's low production costs (~$30,000–$35,000 pre-outfit). Economies from the purpose-built design (roomier, no steering wheel/pedals, lower floor for accessibility). Revenue from rides (~$1–$2/mile in ops), where tariffs add just 2–5 cents/mile over 1M-mile lifetime. Political Buffer: As a US company (Alphabet), Waymo lobbies effectively; no outright ban has hit despite threats. Trump pauses (e.g., 90-day tariff delays in May 2025) allowed ramp-up. Broader Context and Future Outlook Hybrid Fleet Approach: Zeekr RTs (for 5-passenger groups) complement US-built options like Hyundai Ioniq 5s (assembled in Georgia, tariff-free, starting late 2025) and upcoming Toyota platforms. Zeekr is ideal for non-US expansion (e.g., Singapore, Tokyo—no Chinese tariffs there). Risks: Escalating US-China tensions could raise kit tariffs to 100% or force full US production (Geely/Zkekr eyeing a US factory). However, Waymo's January 2025 statement—"plans are on-track"—and November sightings in San Diego signal confidence. Deliveries started Q4 2025 for testing, with commercial deployment in 2026. In essence, Waymo's setup turns a Chinese "shell" into a US-centric robotaxi, keeping costs competitive (~$60k–$70k total, as previously estimated) without "massive" extras. This reflects AV industry's globalization amid trade wars—innovative, but precarious.
Interesting, I did not know about this. I've asked Waymo about it several times and they are 🤐. I guess they don't want to draw attention to it.
Waymo needs a lot less vehicles than you are calculating. 350 Waymo per 1 million residents is 30-40% market share for Livery It takes a lot less cars when they can operate 22 hours per day, 7 days per week 50,000 cars = 30% share in the top 50 US markets for Livery
So are you admitting that their solution works? I keep getting mixed signals about Waymo - it either works but they can’t get enough cars OR their tech stack is not scalable. Which is it?
Option 4: Walk into White House, put a gold bar on his table. Get an exemption to the 105% tariff. Import Zeekrs
Waymo needs to come out of the shadows a bit. The tech is awesome but the finances remain a complete mystery. Is this just Uber, round 2? Have you seen anything on what it takes to keep these vehicles clean / repair / etc? The whole thing trends towards looking like a mass
Waymo will have to either take a capex hit in the tens of billions or a significant margin hit on leases to achieve significant scale.
San Diego market is using Chinese made EVs. Funny how there are all sorts of regs that make me importing a Toyota not sold in the US impossible but Chinese EVs? No problem.
To be honest both #1 and #2 are perfectly fine. At this stage, profitability really doesn't matter at all as Long as there's a path to profitability one day.
All of the above. I think Waymo will finish retrofitting any remaining I-Paces. Then they will retrofit/deploy the Zeekrs. The Zeekr numbers are limited due to tariffs but the remaining I-Paces+Zeekrs should hold them off for a year or so until the Ioniq 5 arrives.