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Arin Dube
@arindube
This is quite an event study. According to the betting market, the dramatic increase in Platner's chance of dropping off in light of today's news (and possibly more) has similarly led to a sharp increase in the chance of Democrats winning the Maine Senate election.
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Arin Dube
@arindube
Platner is now 96% to drop out (was 9% earlier today). Democrats' odds of winning the seat rose from 54% → 63%. Betting market thinks swapping him out for another Dem is worth (9/.87) ≈ 10 points of win probability. That's the Platner penalty.
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Arlo Gilbert
@arlogilbert
The betting markets have some nuances that aren't immediately obvious. I'm not sure about this specific one. If you bet on "Republicans beat Platner" on Kalshi for example, you'll lose if he drops out because the terms are conditioned on him getting to the general election.
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Fleetwood Mac Stan Account
@x1234521
It's interesting what this suggests about primaries probably not doing a great job at picking electable candidates. There has to he a paper on how primaries are about the median voter within the primary not the general electorate which is bad for winning the general.
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ResidentEvil
@R3sid3nt3vil4
"According to the betting market" holy shit you're pathetic. You're cool with being deliberately dishonest to help Republicans win again and again if it means you can keep cashing checks?
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