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M. Nolan Gray 🥑
@mnolangray.bsky.social
It's weird how we all just politely ignore the state with the worst housing crisis in the country: Hawaii.
This Cullum Clark report is a useful addition to the housing supply & policy debate.
Best part is its outcome-based performance metric: metro areas and, in some regions, local govs, are scored on housing growth relative to predicted growth if regs were the same everywhere.
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May 3, 2025 at 7:06 PM
11 reposts
130 likes
Much of Maui looked like Skid Row when I visited, and that was before the fires. And of course, virtually every single person I met my age in Honolulu still lived with their parents.
My sense is that people write off the Hawaiian housing crisis off because of a alleged lack of water/land—arguments that make no more sense than in California—or the high cost of importing materials—which certainly sets a higher floor on prices, but hardly explains the scale of the crisis.
Vast tracts of the island of O'ahu are tract homes, strip malls, and golf courses where it's illegal to build anything much more than a detached single-family home.
The sad part is that their housing financing and construction defect laws are so good that if they just changed the zoning - so much would get done instantly.
Not quite everyone! The good senator from Hawaii is a super hardcore YIMBY
I think about all the retirees on Nextdoor Silicon Valley who post about how they are being forced to move to Hawaii because of the overcrowding here caused by uninvited newcomers
I’m 💯 sure they will continue to fight for our values* in their new homeland!
(*Easy, free, direct surface parking)
That is insane . Our housing crisis is at a critical stage . If there is an Apartment available the cost is ridiculous . Home prices on Oahu are at an average 800K and up , and most at that starting price are far from luxurious . Locals are fleeing to the mainland just to have a better life .
Glad this report includes Hawaii. Many studies leave us out. (Probably so we didn't throw off their model, we're such an outlier.)
2025 Hawaii Housing Factbook coming soon from UHERO!
uhero.hawaii.edu
Demand to live in Hawaii is infinite of course, right 😵💫
Ventura County/SB/SLO are rarely mentioned for how bad they are too
Not that those are the places in CA I would prioritize though
The Central Coast in general deserves more scrutiny, but SLO actually seems to be making an effort.
Wow, that's more than I would have thought. Is that for the county or the city? When I was at Cal Poly from 2019-20 it seemed like such a disaster. I will say that it had better walkability, bike infrastructure and transit (at least for students) than the other places on the central coast
Hawaii does have some unique circumstances. Some people are still mad about colonization.
Environmental political allergies are especially high because island ecosystems are more easily threatened than mainland ones (unique species that evolved there and only there, etc.)
Have we checked in with the folks at ?
They did an episode on the Infill podcast last year podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i...
