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Since 2014, employers have sought more H-1Bs than the 85,000 available.
But because of the H-1B lottery, companies offering higher pay routinely lose out to others undercutting Americans
From 2018-2023, half of new H-1Bs went to workers making less than $88k and 35% of H-1Bs were gobbled up by lower-paying companies with a significant part of their workforce on H-1Bs
The talent pool is much better than that but we’re selecting from it at random
Three major alternatives have been offered:
1. The 2020 selection rule proposed by USCIS would have ranked workers by seniority
2. Section 104 from the bipartisan H-1B Reform Act
3. Compensation-based ranking
Here’s how they’d stack up according to the new data:
The seniority-based ranking USCIS proposed in 2020 would have ranked workers by how much they’d be paid relative to others in their occupation
Would boost H1B's contribution to GDP by 48%
Raises average wages to over $128K
Disadvantages early-career workers
Would boost H1B's contribution to GDP by 48%
Raises average wages to over $128K
Disadvantages early-career workers
Compensation-based ranking:
-Largest GDP value boost to the program (88%)
-Biggest boost to average wages (to >$137k)
-Most effective at reducing outsourcing
But it needs to be adjusted by regional cost differences and age to capture their contribution over their whole career
Sec. 104 of the H-1B Reform Act would have the smallest economic effect, but the biggest increase in retention for international students with advanced STEM degrees.
This proposal would effectively transform the H-1B program into a visa exclusively for graduates of U.S.
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Ending the lottery and adopting an alternative to random selection would significantly redistribute visas away from the lower-paying outsourcing companies
A common concern about replacing the lottery is that it might set back efforts to retain US-educated graduates
The data don’t support this view.
Under a senority or compensation system, the share of visas going to people already in the US as students or on another visa would
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Please read the full report here:
oops, typo in the table: that should be $143 billion for the economic boost from Section 104
Bingo, this is why you want to adjust for age—some people simply are earning more because they're later in their career
Quote
roon
@tszzl
Replying to @cremieuxrecueil
add a modifier for youth. getting a 99th% 21 year old is more important than getting a 95th percentile 40 year old even if the latter is better in absolute comp terms
One way to improve the compensation based ranking is to give a new college grad a few years to make a high enough ranking. If they turn out to be exceptional this will become clear and the employer is likely to give them a raise large enough to enable them to stay.
Glad that someone did this analysis! You mentioned adjusting compensation for age + geographic region, would you also consider adjusting for occupation as well to avoid pricing out certain occupations from the program (e.g. accountants)?
That’s essentially what the seniority-based ranking is! It’d leave us with relatively more outsourcing, lower economic benefits, and less educated H-1Bs. Better than the status quo but I wouldn’t want to turn better-paid engineers away for accountants tbh
The Section 104 plan gives too much deference to degrees when the market cares less than ever. I'm uncertain whether comp or credentials are even the right metric to aim for; but I appreciate your thorough analysis of the options here.
Totally agree. Worse, once you select on the credential, you empower visa mills and encourage people to get useless degrees
You release this just *after* my giant H-1B post? Guess this will be the living part of the living lit review
"No one likes the H-1B lottery."
The immigration lawyers on this website absolutely love the lottery.
I’m so happy that I don’t have to deal with the H1B BS anymore. I was to go through the 2014 batch and since then the whole lottery system is in chaos. I really don’t understand why USCIS allow companies like Tata to game the system to bring undereducated, low-skilled workers.
How about none? I only want Von Neumann O1s and that's a solid stock from Europe.
Now do employement based Green Card and if you are feeling to lucky, add diversity visa to the pool.
Ambient PM2.5 #pollution from residential combustion, industrial emissions, and power generation caused over a million deaths in South Asia, according to a study published by .
What about something that worked even better? like a 2 for 1 deal, mentorship program, hb1 Visa, holder and a US native tech holder can work together, and it can be an added benefit to the company tax perk for the company? It might result in boosting a lot of mediocre American
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Proposal: Model immigration system to be similar to tradable carbon credits. Companies will be given a number of credits that can add up to a work visa.
Companies that need more foreign talent will purchase credits from companies that don't need foreign workers.
Compensation ranking for the win but eliminate eligibility for H1B dependent employers and body shops. They’re parasites that exist solely to facilitate job loss.