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The tension i’m trying to work out right now is: 1. Hearing in The Town pod say Disney can’t make an animated feature for less than $200 million 2. Realizing that image gen tech could make full animated films a $200 proposition in, like, a year or two
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Bennett Waisbren
@BennettWaisbren
ChatGPT 4o's new image gen is insane. Here's what Severance would look like in 8 famous animation styles 🧵 1/8: Rankin/Bass – That nostalgic stop-motion look like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer. Cozy and janky.
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David Watson 🥑
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The point ofc isn’t that these personal films will be anything like Pixar quality but rather that by reducing the cost of animation rendering — and by expanding the supply of animated films on the internet — there’s a potential two-front disruption, both to the cost of production
If stuff like this gets into movies or competes with human-made art it will be bad for everyone. People may get used to it and it may well disrupt in tons of ways, but I don't see how any of them are good.
Suppose the difficulty or expense of making a film...was never the problem? Have you ever gone to see a movie because it was really hard to make? 😂
It could also turn movie making into more of a theatre experience again. Hire actors and give them props. Then use AI to turn the movie into a fully rendered movie.
and really, it may help them make better movies too. The closer they can bring the thing to life before they start production, the less duds and rewrite hells maybe. Or maybe the execs will just use AI to try and control the creative process even more, not sure
Remarkable juxtaposition. Now this is democratising an industry. They have to buy an Anthropic or a Mistral. It's a do or die. Disney is losing millions with this black white flop No more Barbies, please never again.
Let's see the video models keep coherence longer than 8 seconds. And the models will have to run local on gettable and air-gapped hardware (even if it's 100k in processors, that's still a massive savings).
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How is the AI company making money charging 200 dollars? If it's in-house: How much is Disney paying to build, maintain, and occasionally replace the server infrastructure?
I don't think you realize the massive jump required to go from interpreting a few existing frames to making something up whole cloth from beginning to end. Im a techno-optimist and I think AI will be a part of artistic workflows but we're not getting this on $200 within a decade.
The secret is Disney can make a great movie for a fraction of the price, but they’d have to take some risks to get there.
Lmfao. I can see why ppl are hesitant about your book. You don't know what you are talking about. A year or two. Lol, do you read anything other then press releases? Or even look into how these were made.
This year's Oscar winner for animation, Flow, was made using Blender, an open source package, for 3-4mm. My guess is we will see more of that as these tools improve.
Attention, marketing and quality have always been the bottleneck. Not cost, and definitely not skill.
It won’t, the companies that own the genAI programs will raise the prices to be nearly on par and (ironically) copywrite the shit out of their code to try and ruin that shit too
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