Chris Elmendorf on X: "- 3) That people who live in already-dense places are more tolerant of adding density than people who don't. - 4) That people, especially homeowners, are much less supportive of densifying SFH neighborhoods than adding density on major streets & in commercial areas. /4 https://t.co/2exGic4Aze" / X

The last theme of my New Year's

: finessing NIMBYism. How does the 2024 California housing legislation stack up? 1/13

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Chris Elmendorf

@CSElmendorf

12h

Replying to @CSElmendorf

I said Leg should: - focus on reducing the cost of building - end local gov't monopoly on permitting - "finesse" NIMBYism rather than flaunting it or trying to squash it. This thread focuses on issue #1. I'll address #2 and #3 in other threads. /2

This question is the hard to answer b/c no one really knows the point at which Leg "overreach" would create serious risk of a Prop. 13-style backlash. /2

What we do know is: - 1) That a bad ballot measure could entirely vitiate CA's efforts to expand the supply of housing. - 2) That it only takes one ticked-off bajillionaire to put an awful measure on the ballot (see: M. Weinstein) /3

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Emily Hoeven

@emily_hoeven

Sep 7

ENDORSEMENT: Prop 33 promises a solution to the housing crisis. It would almost certainly make things worse sfchronicle.com/opinion/editor

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Chris Elmendorf

@CSElmendorf

- 3) That people who live in already-dense places are more tolerant of adding density than people who don't. - 4) That people, especially homeowners, are much less supportive of densifying SFH neighborhoods than adding density on major streets & in commercial areas. /4

12:28 PM · Sep 8, 2024

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Chris Elmendorf

@CSElmendorf

10h

- 5) That most of the developable land in existing cities and suburbs has been zoned exclusively for SFHs -- so the opportunity cost of treating those areas as off limits would be really high. /5 belonging.berkeley.edu/single-family-

Weighing what we know, my current thinking is: - Don't touch the really rich SFH areas (hello, Atherton). - Promote racial & economic integration by allowing inflows of affluent people & new market rate housing into poorer neighborhoods /6

The Billionaire’s Dilemma

- Use vouchers + allowances for inconspicuous, small-unit, market-rate projects (rather than scary "Low-Income Housing Projects") to **slowly** diversify affluent suburban redoubts. - Go hard on upzoning corridors, downtowns, commercial areas, and places nearby. /7

- Pass laws that would enable HOAs to "sell the whole farm" to a developer, facilitating land assembly & dense developments w/ a scale gradient that transition harmoniously to adjoining SFH neighborhoods. /8

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Chris Elmendorf

@CSElmendorf

Aug 21

Lesson for states considering small-lot subdivision bills: The 2021 amdmts to Uniform Common Interest Ownership Act (UCIOA) extend the default, 80%-consent rule governing forced sale of entire project from "vertical" to "horizontal" associations. 1/8 uniformlaws.org/committees/com

So how'd the Leg do in 2024? Ok on balance, but there's a lot more to do: - The Leg limited the scale of builder's remedy projects while reducing regulatory uncertainty & speeding their permitting. (AB 1893) /9

- The Leg enabled small, fairly dense market rate projects in existing SFH neighborhoods, while honoring local height limits and "demolition-aversion." (SB 1123, AB 1893, SB 450) /10

(I'd like to see more liberal allowances for "missing-middle" projects in SFH neighborhoods, but I see the logic of going slowly.) /11

On the other hand, the Leg's "policy" of allowing densification on corridors and in existing urban cores remains hamstrung by onerous labor rules & exclusions of any site occupied by a lower-income tenant or a rent-controlled unit in living memory. /12

And Leg has done nothing to facilitate land assembly. (Or to supplement federal housing voucher programs, though that can't be expected during a fiscal downtown.) The potential for an AFFH trainwreck also remains. /end

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Joss Sheldon

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