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Richard Ngo
@RichardMCNgo
Scott’s case doesn’t persuade me. He’s missing that: 1. The biggest story of the election is the massive realignment of US political coalitions. 2. Experience shows Trump’s claims should be taken seriously but not literally. 3. Most elite institutions remain leftist monocultures.
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Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼
@Noahpinion
Scott Alexander's case against Donald Trump: astralcodexten.com/p/acx-endorses
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Richard Ngo
@RichardMCNgo
One way of telling the story of the last few decades is that the Democrats had the support of intellectual elites, Republicans didn’t, and that’s why Republicans lost so much ground. But with Silicon Valley’s pivot right Republicans now have an intellectual elite faction onside.
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AF Post
@AFpost
Silicon Valley executive donations shift to GOP for first time in 2 decades. Follow: @AFpost
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Richard Ngo
@RichardMCNgo
You can see the pivot in data (as per above) but it’s most visible in more qualitative on-the-ground indicators. Obviously there’s Musk, Thiel, Luckey, etc but they’re just the tip of the iceberg. A lot of respected people in Silicon Valley are now quietly behind them.
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Richard Ngo
@RichardMCNgo
This matters because elite buy-in shapes politics. It’s less that it swings any given election and more that it decides what grounds the election is fought on: what’s within the Overton window, who can effectively get things done, etc. Elites can shift that very quickly!
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Richard Ngo
@RichardMCNgo
This effect is so strong that IMO it’s less that Republicans now have Silicon Valley on side, and more that over the next 5-10 years Silicon Valley will *become* the core of the Republicans. This will bring much-needed invigoration to DC, which everyone knows is a stagnant mess.
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Richard Ngo
@RichardMCNgo
Okay, but need it happen under Trump? Obviously he’s a deeply imperfect flagbearer for this realignment. But only a very chaotic + provocative candidate would ever be willing to take on both left- AND right-wing establishments, as he did.
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Richard Ngo
@RichardMCNgo
And I think Trump is better summarized as chaotic + provocative than actively authoritarian. He said wild stuff in 2016 but almost all of his subsequent term was uneventful. And I expect his new coalition will rein in serious misbehavior, similar to how his last coalition did.
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David Shor
@davidshor
The part of his term that was pretty eventful was when he tried to pressure elected officials to overturn the election. It came pretty close to succeeding! It was held back by a small number of anti-Trump Republicans that he has spent the last four years purging from the party.
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David Shor
@davidshor
Nearly every person who was a moderating influence on him four years ago has retired, died, or have lost primaries organized by Trump. A decent chunk of them have endorsed his opponent and said he can’t be trusted with power!
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David Shor
@davidshor
I have never seen a clearer case of near-enemy/far-enemy than tech people deciding to allign with religious fundamentalists and Slavic nationalists because they’re annoyed with wokeness. It’s the exact analog of leftist Ivy League activists getting annoyed by their consultant
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David Shor
@davidshor
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @davidshor and @lionel_trolling
It really captured one of my big frustrations with the NRX-adjacent rationalists - this facile idea that engineering the collapse of the liberal order will lead to strongman Thiel turning America into Singapore
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David Shor
@davidshor
To be a bit less sensational I wanted to highlight something upthread The fascist electoral coalition in the interwar period was a hodgepodge of reactionaries, futurists, anti-communists, and many others. It did not end well for the futurists.
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @lionel_trolling
I thought this part was really clarifying
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David Watson 🥑
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Avery James
@averyfjames
It depends why the interwar rightist elites went with fascists in Italy/Germany. Daniel Ziblatt wrote an interesting book in 2017 before he pivoted to general audiences. I recommend the other book on post-WW2 US politics b/c I suspect Joseph McCarthy is the best Trump analogue.
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