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David Watson 🥑
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I'm sorry but their govt spending variable makes no sense. Seems completely orthogonal to whether public spending during and after the pandemic contributed to inflation
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Theory aside, in that graph if you remove the two outliers (Czechia and Costa Rica), the R^2 is probably like 0.3 at best. Yes, outliers are still real data points, but those are 2 small countries doing a ton of the work in the correlation argument here…
“Another difference between Milton [Friedman] and myself is that everything reminds Milton of the money supply. Well, everything reminds me of sex, but I keep it out of my papers.”

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Stephanie's timely warning in June 2020 in the NYT. "As a proponent of what’s called MMT .. I am intimately familiar with how public finance actually works, I am not worried about the recent multitrillion-dollar surge in spending."
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Stephanie Kelton
@StephanieKelton
Replying to @alexmd2 and @elonmusk
30 years of MMT: The government can't run out of money, but it can run out of things to buy. Inflation is the relevant constraint on spending. COVID lockdowns/shortages: You ran out of things to buy. MMT: Told you so.
Pisses me off when I see grad students posting on here on a Sunday. That right there tells me you’re not working hard enough.
Excited to share a new paper w/ Matthias Mertens: From Labor to Intermediates: Firm Growth, Input Substitution, and Monopsony We document, dissect, understand, draw consequences of a new stylized fact about firm growth: the shift from labor to intermediate inputs. Summary:
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NBER
@nberpubs
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A new stylized fact about firm growth: The shift from labor to intermediate inputs reflects high substitution elasticity and monopsony and pushes down the labor share, from Matthias Mertens and @Schoefer_B nber.org/papers/w33172