Post
Conversation
![David Watson 🥑](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="96" height="96"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
QBERT is both a rating system and a projection system. So the article also contains our projected ratings for every QB on a roster in 2025. The top 3:
Lamar Jackson 104.5
Josh Allen 100.9
Patrick Mahomes 94.4
#4/5/6 are a bit spicier. Any guesses?
Our companion NFL *team* rating/projection system, ELWAY, will launch in a few weeks. We’re very excited to bring you these brand new sports models at Silver Bulletin and there are more to come soon. LOTS more at the link:
You’ve seen agents write code.
Now meet agents that run your app, click buttons, and file bugs.
TestDriver brings autonomous QA to your IDE.
Like hiring a tester who works 24/7.
0:31
Book a Demo
I was going to ask if Eli Manning was above or below average. Turns out he's literally right on the line average.
The irony of this system ranking Steve Young as the top QB is that Steve Young himself is probably the only player who can understand the methodology of this metric.
This is an interesting way to display the data, but isn’t it common sense (Lindy) that the QB longevity will track their performance: i.e., those QBs that are best will (generally) have the longest careers?
I’m curious about the stories behind those QBs above 80 QBERT and fewer
I always thought Steve Young was even better than appreciated. And I'm not especially a 49ers fan.
Where do you suppose Roger Staubauch would have ended up if he had gone straight into the NFL instead of completing his term of service for the Navy?
The longer you play, the better you get or the better you get the longer you play?
Up To 100k With Breakout's Best in Class Prop Trading Platform and Keep up to 90%
Still pretty wild that the 9ers had two of the greatest back to back.
Improve energy, mood, muscle mass, and libido—with this simple weekly treatment.
This tracking is not fair to Kurt Warner.
He got a late start but did amazing with the time he had. 
Not very literate in the stats world but it would be interesting to have a graph of standard deviations above the mean across seasons played for each player, if that makes sense.
Can’t even imagine being a niners fan in the 80s/90s, according to the chart you get 10 years from the 2nd best QB of all time then immediately transition to the best QB of all time and both guys are throwing to the undisputed GOAT WR in his prime.
Long time listener, first time caller. So, I love this. Tried to comment on substack; alas, don’t subscribe. Curious: why no adjusted variable weighting for offensive teammate value/ production? Warren Moon was throwing to DHill, EGivins, HJeffries. Steve Young was throwing to
This is one of those analyses that true statisticians get incredibly annoyed with because no shit better QBs play longer. Bad QBs will get benched much earlier in their career. Good QBs will play much long provided that they don’t get injured. Outliers will exist.
So you're telling me Tony Romo and Dak Prescott are the same player. I'd have never guessed
GIF
Good stuff. About the only improvement that springs right to mind are 5 or 10 year intervals, to try and control for getting thrown in at 22 vs sitting and learning for 3 years
This is just selection bias in the greatest form. If we measure PLAYS INVOLVED IN, clearly teams will select the more successful QB to continue to call plays!
Super, super cool! Very detailed model, and ProductionScore actually produces a lot of similar conclusions. Namely, how much a QB contributes to their team's success. Can't wait to see more!
Does this model allow to see where QB’s were at at specific play counts? Where was Brady at on play count 8,000 for example. I’d assume everyone starts to drop after a certain volume
Your model has Dak number six overall in QBERT above Rodgers, Brady, and Brees…therefore it’s trash.
I'm glad to see Fran the Man labelled, but in the words of Pat Healy, "What the hell is Brett Favre doing here?"
I guess Spygate is what we call a “confounder”. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning didn’t cheat.
Imagine if Joe Montana played under the rules today and was protected like QBs today are
Now imagine if Brady played when Montana played
Where is George Blanda in this chart? Is it for AFL, and NFL QB’s before, after the merger?
So, what does QBERT actually stand for? None of the footnotes are readable for me, because they're stuck in the premium section.
We've still got the stash 
drop code '87' at checkout for some extra $$ off
drop code '87' at checkout for some extra $$ off
Wow amazing, the longer they play is somehow an indicator of good performance, incredible insight
The two are certainly correlated. However, I think there may be a strong argument that performance predicts longevity rather than longevity predicting performance.
Seriously , No credibility without Patrick Mahomes having a green dot with his name on it!
Might be worth it to double check which QBs you have listed as active vs retired. I noticed Jake Browning and Zach Wilson (current QB2s for the Bengals and Dolphins) listed as retired and Derek Carr as active.
The fact you have Roger Staubach near the top proves your methodology is solid.
So Steve Young was the best ever, just didn’t do it for very long like Brady or Manning…
Nate, can we break out by quarter or scenario? We know Eli is a top-tier QB in high pressure situations
That you have Steve Young as "better" than Joe Montana shows that's your X axis is crap
Where's John Elway on there?
Meet the AI-powered wearable over 1.2 million users rely on Hume Band continuously scans your biomarkers, catches health issues early, and guides you to smarter choices for a longer life.
Click now to get 40% OFF + free shipping for a limited time only!
I hate that Brady gets so many accolades just because he played for so long (on good teams). His career stats are going to be padded because of longevity. But he was a cry-baby who consistently got penalties called on opposing defenses, meaning they didn't go after him as hard.
The josh Rosen call-out made me LOL
Brady so good
Thanks for sharing, Nate!
It will be criminal if Eli Manning gets in the hall of fame first ballot, let alone at all
