Post

Conversation

Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
Solid advice if you are Patrick Collison (or just a top-2% “superforecaster”). But a bad bet for the rest of us. Most of the time, the average judgment of the crowd beats the judgment of individual members of that same crowd. Not inspirational but demonstrably true.
Quote
Z Fellows
@zfellows
"A large fraction of what people around you believe is mistaken. Internalize this and practice coming up with your own worldview." — Patrick Collison
Image
15K
Views
David Watson 🥑
Post your reply

Ecgberht
@Ecgberht4
And cultural learning also allows us to rely on the wisdom of the ancient crowds. So for both individual and cultural learning, following others makes sense. Presumably that is why we do tend to conformity and it's evil twin, herd behavior - which, in my view, has led to some
215
Old Whig. 🇺🇲🇸🇪🇫🇮🇪🇪🇦🇹
@aClassicLiberal
I asan innovative contrarian unfortunately have to agree. I wouldn't have been able to come up with the things I did if I hadn't been a contrarian but in the other hand my social life in private as when employed would've been so much easier if I'd had acted like a "normie"
195
Optimal Word Combination
@optimalstring
Most humans have either no models, verbal models/oral traditions, or rigid models that solidified decades ago and now lacks the modularity required for iterative refining. So it's not surprising that the cultural default is to shrug and give up.
89
jaydotchan
@jaydotchan
With more interconnectedness from social media, perhaps these days madness of crowds is more common than wisdom of crowds
96

Discover more

Sourced from across X
Nicholas Decker 🏳️‍🌈🌐🇺🇦
@captgouda24
It’s frankly absurd that we require doctors to get a totally unrelated bachelor’s degree before they can start medical school. Why are we wasting four years and tens of thousands of dollars in this?
113K
TracingWoodgrains
@tracewoodgrains
The replies to this are such an indictment of a ton of people's attitudes towards trans people Jessica is an economist. She writes about cutting spending. She's not a culture warrior, just a writer who happens to be trans. And that's enough to draw immense and ugly vitriol.
Quote
The Dispatch
@thedispatch
Welcome @JessicaBRiedl to The Dispatch!
Image
332K
🚀 Rocket Venerates the Humble Pigeon
@rocketalignment
Things are getting weird
Image
Quote
The Information
@theinformation
AI Agenda: Will Reasoning Models Think Clearly for Much Longer? 'Chains of thought,' a sneak peek into the minds of AI models, are slowly becoming gibberish. Read more from @rocketalignment 👇 theinformation.com/articles/will-
277K