Ok, I'll bite...
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Sam Bowman
@s8mb
Replying to @s8mb
Wind power is, unfortunately, nothing like solar in terms of cost reductions. Turbine prices haven't been falling for a decade.
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First, is this real or cash terms? The cost of everything has increased in recent years. In fact, the paragraph under the chart's source article helpfully points out:
Second, and more importantly, this is just the cost of wind in MW. As the chart shows, there has been some modest decline in costs, but $1m/MW, and has broadly been the ballpark figure. However...
Turbines are getting bigger & more efficient. More energy (MWh) is produced per unit of power (MW). So, a 15MW turbine made today does not produce 15x what a 1MW turbine built 20 years ago. It's more like 30-40x.
Confusing MW and MWh is a common error.
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Barnaby Wharton
@BarnabyCBW
Replying to @BarnabyCBW
Take the rough CAPEX of new generation at £1.3m/MW (which is probably not far off?), but used MW*h* instead.
That is right. The basis of the entire calculation confuses MW and MWh. Quite a fundamental error, but let's run with it anyway. Because it's fun.
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Also, the costs of wind energy also depends on things like the up-front development costs and operational costs. Industry has got much better at doing wind over the years. This means further cost reductions, as there are fewer costs to be recovered.
So, in the timeline of the chart, CfDs for offshore wind awarded in 2012 were £150/MWh. CfDs awarded last month were £58/MWh (in constant 2012 prices). That's nearly a third of the price. Not quite what the chart is presenting, but what matters to consumers.
You have confused capacity MW rating and actual MW output (utilisation). Actual 1MW output for 1 hour is always 1MWh. What you meant is that a 15MW rated turbine has a higher utilisation than a 1MW turbine so generates more energy per unit time per 1MW rating (not actual).
Love the clarification on MW vs MWh. It's crucial to understand the efficiency gains in wind power. Thanks for breaking it down!