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discussion of why we're unlikely to have a moment where we automate AI research and get an "intelligence explosion."

Image displays multiple paragraphs of text discussing AI improvements in code editing, syntax highlighting, type checking, and data validation. It explains the continuum from AI-assisted tools like Google engines to more advanced autonomous agents. The text highlights challenges in distinguishing AI from human progress, noting reductions in low-level coding like C assembly due to abstractions. It questions why current AI systems are not seen as part of recursive self-improvement and addresses the hard line between tools and thinking entities. The content emphasizes gradual shifts in developer autonomy over time.

10:52 AM · Oct 17, 2025

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David Watson 🥑

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Good example of "AI as normal technology" thinking.

Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away

The Andrej Karpathy episode.During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will j...

"Won't there be a sudden speed-up when sluggish humans are finally eliminated from the loop? Probably not. By that point, machine "code wizards" will be writing most of the code anyway - so progress will already be pretty rapid."

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Both (1) people who expect 20 percent growth in 2028 and (2) people who think "95% of organizations are getting zero return" means AI is fake... are making the same basic mistake of dramatically underestimating how long it takes big organizations to adapt to new technology.