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Joel Wertheimer
@Wertwhile
Many areas of suburban Atlanta swung by nearly 20 points. People stop identifying as republicans when they start voting for dems. People need to stop being ridiculous about voters swinging.
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Matthew Dowd
@matthewjdowd
i have said this since 2020. The amount of money, time, and research resources aimed at converting GOP voters to vote Dem. is such a complete waste of money. Right now Harris is getting 5% of GOP voters. Biden in 2020 got 6% of GOP voters. in 2016 Hillary got 8% of GOP.
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David Watson 🥑
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Joel Wertheimer
@Wertwhile
From 2012 to 2020 there were massive shifts in Democratic vote share as white voters polarized by education. Tens of millions of Americans have changed their partisan identity. Of course people are persuadable.
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Sam Learner
@sam_learner
Not saying you're necessarily wrong, but there are plenty of other ways to explain those swings besides just GOP voters flipping (turnout differential, swings among independents, migration in/out of those areas)
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Joel Wertheimer
@Wertwhile
It’s really not that mostly. Opposite thing happened in upper Midwest. Counties don’t swing 40 points like some did on migration and turnout.
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SMH
@SMH3770
I grew up in Cobb County and back then it was definitely Conservative. Now the area is a mix of poverty and McMansions. Remember my area started having new families from CA and CO seeking out my school system. No wonder it's Dem now
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SmythRadio
@SmythRadio
Matthew Dowd is right. Why spend all that money convincing Republicans to switch to voting Democrat when you can use extended mail-in voting periods to harvest all the non-voter ballots and then cast them yourself for the Democrat at 3AM after a water main leak?
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The Keystone Take
@KeystoneTake
It's absolutely real. In the 1990s Clinton won PA twice easily, while Ridge won governor races twice easily. There are a lot of voters who split their state/federal office voters for whatever reasons. Dems need to try to win them over.
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Pras
@PrasFrancis
Agree, but I think parties don’t do enough to attempt persuasion outside of election season, which leads to a weird set of election promises and policy obligations.
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erik balsbaugh
@etbalsbaugh
Pretty sure almost every midterm election ever has killed the whole "turnout is destiny" argument. Turnout matters, but wielding power effectively, in off years, requires persuasion and conversion in presidential years.
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Nathaniel Renteria
@rencito_4040
Exactly. Not to mention, it was just 10 years ago that Democrats had senators in the states of Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Dakota to name just a few. Also, switching someone from one side to the other is actually a net gain of two votes, so even a higher ROI on those voters.
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Nash
@nash10639
Buckhead/marietta is solid blue and south of downtown is light red?!?!?!?? Is this map real
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Sandra Duffy
@SandraDuffy123
I've noticed young people from conservative families in particular change political affiliation as they gain experience and contact with a world outside the milieu they grew up in.
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Chris
@murphtoned
Is this change due more to demographic changes in these areas or people switching parties?
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It’sAllGood 🌻#YesWeKam 🥥🌴
@SallgoodIt
Harris has so much money she can fire on all cylinders. There is nothing wrong with trying to grab that 5% of sane voters in rural Wisconsin and PA while registering women and young people.
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🥥🍉🐝🌻ישראל קאַפקע📎
@IsraelKafka
Same with unskewing the polls because more Dems answered when compared to June polling, when at the time, a dead person was at the helm of the party and running for reelection.
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BucMagic4420
@BucMagic4420
10-15% of registered Republicans I knows are voting Harris, another 5-10% are just going to abstain from voting for President this year. They'll likely remain Republicans just to see what is next for the Party.
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Joe More
@PowerfulJoeMore
As a Republican I genuinely know more former Trumpers voting Democrat than any other election. Theyre just probably not admitting in to pollsters
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@meantweets
@meantwe14422691
Also a decent number of Obama Dems swung toward Trump and became MAGA. And every one of your opponent's voters you persuade to instead vote for you is worth two voters you persuade to come in off the 3rd party or non-voting sidelines.
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