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here's the actual mind-blowing thing: china has really struggled to produce 7nm and smaller chips like what TSMC can make. but TSMC stood up a fab in Arizona to make <5nm chips in under 4 years from plan to commercial production!

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Rafael R. Guthmann

@GuthmannR

Oct 29

This is just crazy, 10 years ago the most valuable public companies were worth ca. 10% as much and the USD was weaker (which means companies stocks denominated in USD should go up). How sustainable is this? Why wouldn't some Chinese semiconductor company figure out near perfect x.com/Schuldensuehne…

6:57 AM · Oct 29, 2025

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Lyman Stone 石來民

@lymanstoneky

Oct 29

there's nothing magical about Taiwan for chip production. a mostly-American staff working with American labor laws operating in Arizona can produce cutting edge chips at competitive prices even though China for all its efforts can't seem to pull it off.

Lyman Stone 石來民

@lymanstoneky

Oct 29

i don't know how much of this is sanctions, knowledge transfer by TSMC, or hiccups with corruption/corporate culture in China. but on the question of "can other companies compete with the current giants" the answer is clearly "yes"

(yes I know what TSMC does is different from what Nvidia does but on that front I think the massive surge in AMD prices tells us a lot about the extent to which the market thinks Nvidia's work is actually unique)

Entropium

@type1ayy

Oct 29

Please be a little more informed the reason is well known and nothing to do with labor, its export controls specifically against China on EUV lithography machines and other semiconductor manufacturing equipment

"failed to read second tweet in thread"

I guess it is ultimately irrelevant if Chinese companies manage to produce perfect substitutes to Nvidia's. Chinese companies already produce perfect substitutes to Apple and Tesla. Xiaomi does both at the same time. Yet, Apple and Tesla have ludicrous market capitalizations.

I mean, I agree that it's amazing though it is that America can manage not to fumble set up and effectively run machines that its empire builds on home turf. But watching China spin up similar capabilities, even if a few years behind, is like seeing Russia challenge Boeing.

Aren’t Chinese fabs unable to buy the latest semiconductor equipment from OEMs like ASML’s EUV lithography toolsets that are critical for super small nodes?

There is still time to catch up

Potatoman, oneday celebrator

@batatalal

Oct 29

It’s not mind blowing if you knew anything. China is trying to develop the tech. Tsmc set up a fab to produce something with known tech. Both are challenging, but what China is doing is much harder.

It's 100% because China is trying to do all the processes in house and photolithography and insanily hard one man's game with ASML, who's now unable to sell to China the same equipment the US has bought.