Excellent column on the "tall skinny" variations coming to SF. I think we'll get lots of 6-10 unit bldgs on small lots, not NYC-style pencils in the sky. 
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Why?
1. Not mentioned in the piece, but AB 1893 + SB 423 + SF's housing element jointly make buildings of up to 10 units developable by right, w/o labor or BMR mandates, on a vast swathe of residential lots across the city. No rezoning required!
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Chris Elmendorf
@CSElmendorf
On Jan. 1, 2025, most lots in San Francisco's residential neighborhoods will be opened up for 4-9 unit, 100% market-rate projects.
Applicants may design their project *however they want,* provided it conforms to *some* zoning district anywhere in city.
An explainer . 1/19.
. 1/19.Show more
2. There seems to be a broad consensus to establish local criteria for waiving dual-stair requirement for small buildings. Peskin is a leading voice! A big win for econ feasibility.
3. The budget crisis + cratering enrollment in SFUSD create a local political logic for welcoming these buildings.
We need more taxpaying families!
Let's cheer on developers as they build family-sized condos in residential neighborhoods w/ underenrolled schools!
4. Few projects "pencil" in S.F. today, ternercenter.berkeley.edu/research-and-p.
Those w/ best chance are small wood-frame blgs built w/o union labor, that don't trigger money-losing BMR rules, that don't waste space on circulation, & that can be financed by local investors.
"Financed by local investors" is a funny one. I've heard that nat'l investors (like pension funds) that pony up for big multifamily projects demand rates of return >10 points higher in S.F. than in Texas, b/c of S.F.'s history of clown-show permitting.
Most permitting in S.F. *should* be quick & predictable now, thanks to the above-mentioned state laws, but big nat'l investors are probably reluctant to believe it until they see the evidence.
Small local investors who master the new rules will pave the way.
/end
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Guy who owns a $1.5 million dollar home is mad he has to pay $1,250/month in property tax for schools, roads, sanitation, police etc.
the only reason your home is valuable is because the government enforces your property rights and provides valuable infrastructure!
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Governor Dill
@TheGreenOldDill
Paying my property taxes this morning and I’m bitter. Again.
I’m practically “renting” my paid-off home from the county and if I don’t pay my taxes, they evict me and take everything.
F.
#Tyranny x.com/thegreenolddil…
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This thread sounds compelling until you realise the system carries only 1355 people an hour.
One Elizabeth Line train can carry 1500 people. There are 24 trains per hour during peak hours in the central section of the line.
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box.sol
@sol_boxy
Everyone laughed when Elon said he'd dig tunnels to fix LA traffic..
Now his underground Vegas loop is making $75M a year.
But how this business grew is actually wild.
Here's what's actually happening beneath the strip:
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I am unaware of a single country with excellent, high frequency transit where it’s free. Affordable? Yes. Subsidized for special populations? Sure. Free to all? No. Not Japan, Singapore, Australia or Europe. Fare jumpers defund transit and erode public trust.
Pay your fare.
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Hear in LA
@hearinladotcom
If LA moved 2% of the budget from the LA Sheriff's dept. and 2% from the LAPD into Metro, it could be free.
#MMF x.com/kathrynbarger/…
The reason the average American voter is apathetic to public transit is that they’ve never seen it work well.
We see transit as a welfare program and not something that can actually move a lot of people quickly and conveniently.
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