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Derek Thompson
@DKThomp
This has been a fun debate to follow. One week ago, I think I was 70-30 on the side of smartphones being over-blamed for the decline of birthrates in the US and around the world. The timing just didn't seem to match up for me, given the long-term decline in fertility rates. But Lyman,
@jburnmurdoch
, and
@JesusFerna7026
have changed my mind. I think several phenomena related to phones—declining socialization; declining coupling; smartphone-mediated distribution of western values, including feminism—have probably had a global effect on birthrates
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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
@lymanstoneky
Contra @AlexNowrasteh / @joefrancis505 / @tylercowen , I think it's obvious that digital technologies are creating a sui generis fertility decline. I explain why in this post: lymanstone.substack.com/p/the-fake-lon
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Reuben Rodriguez
@ReubenR80027912
Here’s an analogy: The Spanish Conquistador was sitting in Iberia w/ a ton of diseases as well as cannons, steel & horses. The galleon & navigation made their hemispheric conquest possible; without it, the natives would not have encountered them …smart phones are the ships
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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
@lymanstoneky
I mean on some level the fertility take here is just "Derek is right about emerging asocial lives in general-- and this applies in the specific niche case of fertility too", so I'm glad you agree! 🤣
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Open Signal
@OpenSignalio
Recently had my 1st child & have wacky theory. Child rearing used to be a sort of entertainment, but now many options raised replacement cost. Kids give more long-term happiness but now people have short attention spans & crave immediate feedback loops.
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matt duffy
@iammattduff
> related to phones it's a category error to make the phone central. it conflates a broad set of attention sucks with the device. lyman's own mortality-adjusted chart shows a smooth decline, with the boomers as a blip, on the long arc of attention-sucking technology diffusion
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David Aaronovitch
@DAaronovitch
Of all the huge social changes of he last century I think the advent of smartphones is the least likely explanation for women choosing to have fewer babies
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Mike Peterson
@mpvprb
The decline in birthrates is a good thing. Endless growth is impossible. We need steady-state sustainability. As automation increases, there is a chance that a good balance will be achieved.
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Mrng
@skdjbekdnd
Why are birthrates collapsing in North Korea and Arabia where women are essentially property? Phones and competing sources of dopamine and serotonin are much more compelling explanation than ideology.
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Noah Campbell
@NoahProoval
How can anybody look at that chart and NOT see a long term trend (albeit you need to know a little history as usual)? Number of children started shooting up in the 1920s because more survived then the Baby Boom then it reverted to the long term downward trend.
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Stwarth Piedra 🌐🇨🇷🇺🇦
@S2artPB
I really liked
@JesusFerna7026
post. If his thesis is correct, and modern societies are just not replacement inducing, then we really need to start focusing more on designing new systems that support declining populations or technologies that can artificially create humans
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Kai Samuelsen 🧦🗽🚅
@KaiDaigoji
Why are you listening to this guy:
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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
@lymanstoneky
Replying to @ehaspel
The Somali community is a scourge on the republic. I have been saying this for years. The rampant fraud is just icing on the cake. We should indeed be reviewing if Somalis e.g. lied on naturalization forms, and deport any with deportable offenses.
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Tom Marshall
@TomPMarshall
Did total fertility rates (TFR) only start to decline across the world when smartphones appeared? Data in the graphs are countries in three continents. Biggest fall in TFR in every country was long before smartphones. Check for yourself (link) gapminder.org/tools/#$model$
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JusDayDa
@JusDayDa
While I don’t disagree…. It’s also an evolutionary decision that will balance the planet. We lost 99% of our farmers 1890-2026 but produce many times more grain (Of which 90% is not consumable as food for human beings) So as we evolve, the population right sizes against need.
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ElaineGolding
@Elainebks
Really? There are many reasons why pregnancies are going down….you sort of forgot contraceptives..and not being able to afford a home …
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Mike
@Tigersfanmike
Bro. It’s not a phone. It’s too fucking expensive. Full stop. Also society is a dumpster fire but mostly the money thing.
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JedoBako
@JedoBak
lol no mention of the ubiquitousness of birth prevention medications. It's not birth control (great marketing btw) its birth prevention. Nobody wants to address this bcuz nobody wants to have the conversation due to the implications
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UnintendedConsequences
@Griffit15999943
All of those things you listed are confounds The real reason is the pills we use to eliminates accidental pregnancy Human reproduce through accidental pregnancy.....you can't eliminate that and expect to survive
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StreetClashKings
@StreetClashKing
Agreed. Smartphones didn't just change communication. they rewired socialization, dating, and aspirations at global scale. The timing with the post-2010 fertility plunge is too clean to ignore.
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Ágnes Nagy PhD
@NagyAgnes671894
Let's not blame the smartphone, but use it to promote having children a natural thing. In addition, to help change attitudes, family life education should be made mandatory in secondary education based on the theory of traditional family development.
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