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The broad unpopularity of all incumbents everywhere is one reason I used to be skeptical of the "he's too old" theory of the 2024 election.
I was wrong and swapping in someone younger did help a lot.
But Rishi Sunak wasn't old, Trudeau isn't old, Macron & Scholz aren't old. Incumbents in Australia and New Zealand didn't lose because they are old.
Voters everywhere are (somewhat unfairly imo) grumpy about the post-covid economic recovery.
Of course one reason pre-debate Biden was doing relatively well compared to most incumbents is that the US economy, whatever its struggles, is doing way better than anyone else's!
I think "Harris is running in difficult circumstances" is important to internalize.
To win she needs to do two things:
1. Reach out to people outside her base
2. Receive grace from her base as she attempts to do (1)
This happens only if people know it's hard!
Yep. The only reason she's is still in the running at all with 50:50 chance, is that US economy is doing much much better than any of those other comparable countries. BBB Build Back Better Bidenomics whatever - IDK what it is, luck or skill, but yeah, if not for the US economy
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Michigan: Vice President Harris Predicted to Win
Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to secure victory in Michigan, thereby gaining 15 electoral votes.
Key Insights from the Forecast:
• This race is not expected to be competitive, with Vice President Harris likely securing a
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I think the post pandemic US government was Trump. His loss already came
She's nonetheless running against Donald Trump. A good Dem candidate (and a less progressive first 3 years of the current administration) would have had a much easier time beating him.
I think folks have really forgotten how much harder this election was supposed to be for the Dems than 2020
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Philipp Tsipman
@ptsi
Just a quick note on U.S. election polls. 
The notion that it would be easy for a Senator from California or New York to win. Or that you could oversee an inflation spike like this and easily win… is just delusional.
This was going to be a very hard election. If it was
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The notion that it would be easy for a Senator from California or New York to win. Or that you could oversee an inflation spike like this and easily win… is just delusional.
This was going to be a very hard election. If it was
Stick a fork in this campaign, it's done if Matt's making excuses 22 days early.
I thought I was done with politics for good. But I've seen what the Democrats have done to our country. I'm running for US Senate in the most hotly contested race in the country. Will you chip in now?
The internal polling must be awful if the Harris campaign is already having allies get these talking points out.
pandemic incumbents were massively censorious, school closing, illegal alien importers so they should be deeply unpopular
She's blundering away something she is incapable of ever winning. Being able to talk is a basic requirement to be president. She can't meet it.
She’s stupid.
Paint it whatever color you want, no one wants a dunce for Prez.
There is nothing “hard” about it.
Ya pretty wild the globalist tyrants who locked everyone down and destroyed the economy are unpopular
Trump was also a pandemic incumbent (and arguably the worst).
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Sure, but other Democrats seem to have an easier time with interviews and media appearances. I don't know if that would be decisive, but it's one of things that might have emerged if a competitive primary had occurred.
Technically wasn't Trump the post-pandemic government? He and Boris Johnson were in charge of their respective nations when it started.
Wait so the boost (from governing through the pandemic) wasn't sustainable?
But it's the rare case where the guy who handled the pandemic response is the challenger
Plus she's essentially an 'unknown' candidate for many people in this country which makes it even harder
I tend to think the most insane thing for a lot of the GOP apparatus who don't like Trump but fell in line is that if Harris wins, Dems are just going to be pretty cooked in 2028, and GOP would sweep in with control of House, Senate and Presidency
Yep. Electorates are in a bad mood about Covid-19 & its effects, especially inflation. And nowhere does the public seem to notice or care that pandemic-driven economic shocks hit pretty much everywhere regardless of party, ideology or geography. They just blame the incumbents.
We weren’t quite able to reach our most recent re-election campaign fundraising goal.
I’m going to need to spend a little more time making up the difference. Will you help us get back on track by rushing a contribution today?
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Thank you for the explainer O Illustrious One
I'm sure the Cheney endorsements will help a lot
How many of those governments are going back to the one that blundered the pandemic?
Too bad for the Republicans that they decided to nominate such a terrible candidate. They could have had this in the bag.
But that's where the press has failed utterly. It should be easy, even with all that, when the other party is this other party.
So in other words, the default assumption is that Trump SHOULD win unless Harris runs an extraordinary campaign?
Also worth noting here is that *Trump* tends to underperform what we’d expect from a generic Republican. If anyone is blundering away something easy, it’s him.
Exactly this, yes, and many voters are unfortunately naive enough to think they can just “try and see if Trump can do better” and “just vote him out again in 4 years if he screws up.” They are in for an unpleasant surprise if they think he will go willingly this time.
Pretty wild to think that the general vibe from COVID is "more people should have died so that I didn't have to wear a mask".
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David J. DeVore
@devoretext
The converse: Trump’s the one blundering away something that should be easy. x.com/mattyglesias/s…
Nobody is mentioning the existential danger that we face if the Republicans gain power.
They want deconstruction of the administrative state with a dismantling of our constitution.
This election is going to be about either keeping our democracy or losing it to autocracy.
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Yes, but US fared much better than the other countries. We are well ahead economically. US citizens should be glad Biden & Harris were in charge. Harris deserves to be reelected based on the Biden/Harris record of achievements.
Germany's last national election was in September 2021. Isn't that post-pandemic?
Imagine if the GOP put up an actual human and not a fucken demented muppet.
Well if people understood that we have the best global economy by far, and wages have outpaced inflation, maybe it wouldn’t be close! But the media, influencers/social media, and politicians haven’t told anyone about that!
The opinionated dotcom billionaire offers his candid thoughts on the closing scenes of the presidential race: Kamala in “founder mode,” fears of another January 6, and Musk’s unholy union with Trump.
Well, she also was completely invisible, as many VP's are. The reasons for that in her case are varied, and I suspect everyone is right in their critiques and support.
Strongly disagree. Beating Trump is not hard and if there was a Dem running that was actually a capable politician who's articulate, likeable and consistently moderate, they'd be running away with it. The problem is Harris is none of those things.
Perhaps all these clowns lost because they were/are all feckless leaders that all made “safe” decisions during the pandemic that harmed mostly the middle class, constantly pander to identity politics and have damaging immigration policies.
Nehammer in Austria may stay in office but his party is no longer the biggest.
𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘾𝙖𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙪𝙨 𝘾𝙖𝙨𝙚 𝙁𝙤𝙧 𝙃𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙨
𝘈 𝘒𝘢𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘢 𝘏𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘰-𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 𝘲𝘶𝘰, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘸𝘦 𝘨𝘦𝘵?
Pretty sure Trump losing in 2020 was the effect you’re talking about?
Have you considered that she is blundering away something hard
Dominican Republic an exception. Mexico also maybe as well, depending on how you count “post-pandemic” and “bid at re-election”.
You can probably sum that up to their economies just coming back too slowly. That isn't a problem Harris has.
Main issue for her is the lingering aftertaste of one bout of solid inflation that has fundamentally impacted home affordability beyond what wage increases can rectify.
It’s also important for you to understand that all those other countries don’t have Donald Trump running as the challenger.
I don’t really buy your argument .
To be fair Trump IS the post pandemic candidate. In any of those other races was the person challenging the person who was in charge during the pandemic?
You're ignoring things to plow through with your putrid diatribe. You're doing what your colleagues have been doing all along, propping up the convicted felon with a Doomsday Dems message. People are sick and tired of Trump who was in office when the pandemic began. Wayward you!
Amid the historic destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene, high-profile MAGA influencers have flooded social media with wild claims about the federal response, hindering relief efforts. Zeb Smathers, the Democratic mayor of Canton, offers the view from the ground.
Not necessarily true. Wouldn’t Trump have been the first pandemic lead government to lose?
For those that say she should be "hitting it", she is the first bi-racial female presidential candidate in history. She has two strikes against her already and people talking about "her vague policies" and "I don't know her" are pretty much showing their unconscious bias.
Thank you for preparing the lib crazies for their upcoming loss. So they don't lose their shit in ED. Probably won't work.. but the attempt is appreciated
All of this was a compelling case to nominate someone else.
Still, Rishi Sunak was not running against an insurrectionist. He might have won if he were.
Oh, please. She is running against the man everyone on the left says is Hitler, a man who literally will end the nation as we know it. If that were even remotely true, how could she not be winning by 40 points?
I imagine the blundering is even more destructive to getting elected in a “hard” campaign
The excuse train is currently leaving the station.
I thought she was an unstoppable juggernaut.
I thought she was an unstoppable juggernaut.
It would be easier if she had actual policies and ideas. Since that isn't the case, yea it's an uphill battle since the public knows she's full of shit and will be 4 more years of the current Biden administration.
Which is why she was doing so well when she was a break from Biden and she should stop doing what she's doing and go back to that. The "it's hard" context reinforces what laftists are asking for rather than undercutting it.
This election is the UniParty represented by Harris (but it could be anyone) vs Make America Great Again, a movement that puts America and her people first.
People are waking up to how dangerous and damaging to America the UniParty is. It's a true David vs Goliath moment.