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It’s so jarring when macro folks tell you “politically entrenched elites” prevented China from pushing through structural reform and then you see numbers like this:

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RedRambutan

@RambutanRed

Jul 22

Replying to @RambutanRed

I don't think most people are aware of the precipitous drop in manufacturing employment numbers in China

The service sector is indeed where the new jobs are. But I don't think the decline in manufacturing was that severe, at least if you believe official data. The latest industrial survey has manufacturing employment at 123 million. In 2009, the entire secondary sector (mining, manufacturing, construction, utilities) was 211 million. If you use shares within the non-private sector for the secondary sector, that's about 133 million in manufacturing, which is close to the APO estimate of 135 million in manufacturing in 2009. stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202412

5:45 PM · Jul 22, 2025

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David Watson 🥑

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The peak number in the piece seems high, but if you compare 2009 to the present you will miss the peak entirely

Yeah those numbers seem right