Harris won the midterm electorate narrowly despite losing the actual election.
People who stayed home in 2024 leaned heavily toward Trump.
vox.com/politics/40336
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The Dems used to have an identity as a coalition of "kind" and stupid voters. Now that Trump has successfully poached the latter, the identity path forward is trickier, and they might finally have to choose between moderates and progressives.
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Trump has always been more popular than his polls would indicate. It also appears that he's even more popular than his elections.
So the country is leaning more conservative than ever. Cool! Thanks for that great news
With that Bernie’s argument that when more people vote democrats win falls flat (for now, until low propensity folks start reverting to Dems )
So you’re saying that Trump is actually more popular than shows in the voting? Good news.
This chart is wild, with Republicans basically saying they voted Republican for things Democrats are much better at. The Biden economy was better on nearly every key measure 2022-2024 than 2019 (Trump's best year) even adjusted for inflation. Immigrants make us much richer.
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CBO reported we had a LOWER cost of living in 2023 than 2019, across the income spectrum, because incomes cumulatively outgrew inflation. People were better off, but got angry at Democrats because they perceived they weren't?
cbo.gov/publication/60
People who stayed home were too (sniff) “progressive” to vote for Harris.
Who’d YOU vote for, Matty?
Here's a mish mash of data that I can pretend matches my priors if I squint and turn the paper sideways, guys! It turns out the Democrats are great and not at fault for their loss, it's just nobody likes them
Exactly. Midterm voters are generally more educated, while those who only show up for presidential cycles are quite uninformed. So that makes sense.
I am not a political strategist but it seems straight forward to me. We are living in one of those times where the pendulum is swinging backwards. The Dems that are popular are authentic and say what they believe regardless of the base. That is different for each of them.
So far which Trump Presidential Term do you like best?
- First Term20%
- Second Term80%
22,756 votesFinal results
Yglesias sharing David Shor numbers, is anyone convinced by this circlejerk?
It is so hard to draw any conclusions because Harris was a weak candidate.
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NEW - Trump job approval - didn't vote in 2024
Disapprove - 83% (+70)
Approve - 13%
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Disapprove - 83% (+70)
Approve - 13%
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Ishan Parasher
@ishan_para43481
Replying to @jonfavs
That dosent actually prove the point wrong. What little polling has been done of the 19 million Biden 2020 voters who stayed home in 2024 suggests the two biggest reasons why we’re (Gaza as #1 nationally and #2 in the swing states & the economy as #2 nationally and #1 in the
If everyone was literate, scientifically literate, numerate, can spell Mississippi, is fit, are attractive, can bench press 2x their body mass...
America is a land of fatties, dunces, and mediocrity.
This is the end. No rebound.
Whoa okay this is actually really confusing then. What about all the 2020 Biden voters that didn’t show up? Did they all mass defect over to trump and then just stay home anyway?
I read the article and they don’t explain how they come up with the “if everyone voted number”. Is it based on stated preference or just modeling out the end result assuming the same partisan split?
So more proof 2020 was the anomaly of all anomalies if you can’t even explain the 81 to 75 million vote drop off with “Biden voters stayed home”
Explain the drop off without admitting you stole it in 2020
Harris didn't run in 2022. What kind of nonsense analysis is this?
The numbers are actually much more lopsided when you account for all the fake votes in blue states without voter ID.
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The realignment toward the suburbs has given Dems a much higher floor, with a base of higher propensity voters. There will never be another 2010-like wipeout anytime soon even under the worst circumstances.
That said, she still likely would’ve lost the EC at a +0.6 pop vote win
comparing midterm electorates to presidential electorates, very smart
Not surprising that uninvolved “low information voters” (morons) would have voted for trump
People are tired of status quo do nothing dems. Trump understood what Frank Underwood was saying.
Kamala is a POS who backs genocide. Quit trying to make her sorry ass more presentable.
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