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And the funny thing is everyone freaks out about Jay saying they are only cutting twice next year, never mind they are always wrong, but if one of the largest economy in the world is about to go through a deflationary recession how in the hell is the USA going to get inflation
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I had a panic attack in 2019,
I was $1M in debt,
only $500k in inventory,
with a $20k/ mo rent,
and $50k/ mo payroll,
Here's what happened,
![Image](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="720" height="960"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
It is really bad.
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Spencer Hakimian
@SpencerHakimian
*CHINA'S ONE-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 1% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2009
Meltdown in China.
Meltdown.
They are going to drive rate to near zero and refinance their real estate nightmare asset base.
I don’t think it stops the demographic terror coming as fewer buyer exist over time but it might push off the reckoning.
Spot on.
Everyone obsesses over the wrong type of debt. It's high private sector debt that leads to recessions and public debt cushions the blow.
Quote
Daniel Baeza
@dbaeza13
Everyone obsesses over public debt when it’s private debt that poses a greater risk to economic stability.
Countries with sovereign control over their currency can manage debt far differently than households/companies.
Government debt cushions private sector deleveraging.
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"China's economic slowdown is making waves globally. 
With 1-year government bond yields dipping below 1% for the first time since 2008, concerns about a looming recession are intensifying.
While falling yields point to a weaker outlook, the Chinese government is countering
With 1-year government bond yields dipping below 1% for the first time since 2008, concerns about a looming recession are intensifying.
While falling yields point to a weaker outlook, the Chinese government is counteringShow more
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china moving into fiscal dominance? hence do we expect the bazooka?
I have been saying for about 2 years ! #China is in real trouble ! there economy is not growing any where the pace that they would need to pass the US in GDP ! I think they will never catch up now since we have a real capitalist government coming on Jan ! 2025 may not be a the
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You can Grok to check, PBOC is not really doing any meaning full QE (buying back gov bond). They lower rate b/c the investors willing to pay more for gov bond. The real risk is a bond bubble, which can pop when rate go up.
Nothing big, The Chinese government push company to invest and people spend but the economy is in recession, business is shrinking and people are losing jobs. Governmen bond is the only choice because Chinese real estate is going through downturn.
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China is building a 6G. Has one if the worlds largest consumer base and manufacturing hun, is on it way to becoming a self sustaining country. Car manufacturers has seized more than 50% of the world’s Automarket Sector.
I acknowledge your analysis but china is no way near
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I had a panic attack in 2019,
I was $1M in debt,
only $500k in inventory,
with a $20k/ mo rent,
and $50k/ mo payroll,
Here's what happened,
The effect is spreading very fast, even defensive companies are trying hard to survive in HK recently 
Yup so, there's a couple revolts going on in China
1) the elderly aren't being taken care of financially or otherwise. So they've revolted
2) 35 year old men are fired from their jobs and replaced by younger men, and forced to restart as a cleaner or something .
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China is in almost as bad shape as Russia right now - our enemies are in shambles
De Chinese economie is al twee jaar in vrije val. Onroerend goed bubbel is nog steeds aan het leeg lopen. Massale jeugdwerkloosheid en armoede. Chinezen willen en kunnen de alsmaar slechter wordende Huawei telefoons niet meer kopen. Het lijkt Duitsland wel.
China is dying, much worse than Japan in the 1990s. Unemployment rate is much worse than CCP announced. China’s real estate makes the middle class lose their next 30 years. China's birth rate has fallen the fastest in recent years.
Go short CNH and long YANG, you can thank me
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Prob has to do with a stagnant population. They will be entering the population decrease stage.
As an investor. Shrinking population is one of my biggest fears.
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To what extent will the Chinese government push exports via a cheaper Yuan? If they do it will lead to significant pushbacks from Europe and US. This then supports the de-globalization trend we are already seeing. De-globalization is inherently inflationary. Oops!
prob they can’t afford devaluation, they are afraid of it, so they are trying everything else till they finally come to devaluation anyway…
Very insightful, do you think if their economy continues to deteriorate and experiences severe recession could it spill to other economies/markets ?
China is in trouble that's the most important. The more china in trouble the better.
If yields are low, doesn't that mean bond prices are high? And, if that's so, why would bond prices be rising if there is future economic uncertainty?
They are timing it well and trying to solve the problem unlike The US which is turning the blind eye.
I had a panic attack in 2019,
I was $1M in debt,
only $500k in inventory,
with a $20k/ mo rent,
and $50k/ mo payroll,
Here's what happened,
Yields are low because they have good credit, saudis bought their bonds in USD for lower than FFR.
Given the inverse relationship between yield and price, why are investors bidding up the price on these bonds?
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Where have you been? Their biggest real estate company failed a year ago and they have been knocking down houses to artificially inflate prices. Their unemployment rate is high and the consumer base has not been spending. This has been happening for 2 years now
I wonder how far the tax base has shrunk ?
Because the CCP routinely lie who knows what the real births , deaths and marriages are ?
Disposable income ?
"...the only agent left to pick up the slack is the Chinese government
Fiscal deficits are key here."
The Great Wall of Debt
Comparing China to Japan like they both got free flowing traded currency lol
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China’s economy is collapsing, and the CCP’s approach to dealing with it is to ban criticism of the economy.
The government there has its head in the sand. They drip stimulus and work around the edges of the problem instead of facing it head on. It will be more painful to correct the longer they delay. One of the disadvantages of an authoritarian government.
Interesting insight. Except there is really no “private sector” in China - everything is just an extension of the party apparatus. what say you?
Lol...you guys have killed China so many times ...yet its thriving...just quit or come and spend a good 6 months in China to really understand how things work!
