Very telling detail in this story: the Trump administration's hopeful scenario for Iran is to find a bunch of corrupt IRGC guys who might be willing to shut down the nuclear program in exchange for keeping their kleptocracy
"The CIA had produced a series of scenarios that might play out if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader, were killed in an offensive."
"One envisioned a hard-line cleric replacing Ayatollah Khamenei — perhaps even a leader more bent on acquiring a nuclear weapon. Another scenario predicted an uprising against the government, a possibility many intelligence officials thought was remote, given the weakness of Iran's opposition."
"A number of senior Trump administration officials seized on a third scenario: that a faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more pragmatic than the hard-line clerics might take power... the CIA analysis suggested that as long as the United States did not interfere with the economic activities of this faction, such as its influence in the oil industry, a group of officers might be conciliatory toward the United States."
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So, Trumps foreign policy strategy can be characterized as naive and stupid Kissinger.
So, on the basis of a series of CIA 'scenarios' (aka thought experiments not connected with reality), and the observation that Iran hadn't folded despite an 'awesome display of military hardware', Trump decided to commit the US?
It was wrongly conceived, flawed from inception
Keep this in mind while Zionist shill Gregg accuses Iran of being a kleptocracy.
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It's what Trump and his cronies would do if they were in the IRGC's position... so, kinda predictable this would be Trump's end game.
Trump has no interest in supporting “democracy” in other countries; it’s all about the deal/the transaction. MIGA…clear the deck so we can do business. Tone down the rhetoric/shut down the nuke program and we’ll look the other way on some issues. So much money to be made.
The US is basically a mob state with the Don running a global protection racket.
It is call Realpolitik. Trade offs. Cant go from terrible to suddenly great that fast
Why would they want Iran to shut down the nuclear program? The US tore up the nuclear agreement in the first place, and Israel needs the appearance of an ongoing imminent threat.
After new doctrine, IRGC divisions now made independent and under the command and control of their commander who is part of a coalition but not answerable to an authority. Any 2 IRGC traitors, if found, wont help US, rather be the source of yet another embarrassment
This is reckless geopolitical gambling, "hopeful scenario".
[My hopeful scenario is to enjoy a weekend with Tyra Banks in a Yacht off the Bahamas... Freaken idiots.]
More "pragmatic" IGRC leaders means people greedy enough to sell their country's soul for a few pieces of silver
Very telling that you assume anything you read in the NY Times about the Trump administration is true.
Considering what is happening, any government that isn't directly controlled by the US or Israel will want to get as many nukes as possible as soon as possible, zero negotiation.
Scenario three happened and they appointed the very hardline son of Ayatollah Khamenei.
I bet academic and think tank shit research on the IRGC had nothing to do with it.
Iran's opposition is NOT weak! Over 1,000,000 Iranian diaspora rallied on Feb 14 for Reza Pahlavi. People inside Iran shout his name! He has popular support, a written plan for the transition period, and a team to execute it!
Support Pahlavi!
#IranRevolution2026
#RezaPahlavi
This isn’t a limited strike — it’s a broad campaign with no exit plan, rising casualties, and regional spillover. Chaos thrives on ambiguity. If American lives and global stability are at risk, the public deserves strategy, not improvisation.
In other words, replace the theocracy with a corrupt military dictatorship. Because that worked out so well, last time.
I mean, the IRGC was created kinda to prevent this exact scenario from happening...
Was there a scenario that was actually plausible based on human nature or were they all so high on their hallucinations & dreams that they forgot about reality? When humans get attacked it's rarely the weak link that takes over, it's the DANGEROUS 1 that get's unshackled.1/
I can’t see Trump finding his corrupt IRGC folks, they saw what happened to Ukraine since it gave up its nukes.
There’s no way they will give up having them now Israel and the U.S. have attacked them twice in a year.
Has anyone asked grok how it would have handled the Iran situation?