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![David Watson 🥑](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="96" height="96"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
Overall African imports surged 60% in the last 12 months to 15GW.
And it's not driven by South Africa - over the last two years, the imports of solar panels outside of SA have nearly tripled from 4GW to 11GW...
These solar panels will provide a lot of electricity.
The solar panels imported into Sierra Leone in the last 12 months, if installed, would generate electricity equivalent to 61% of the total reported 2023 electricity generation, significantly adding to electricity supply
Solar panel imports will reduce OVERALL imports - because the value of diesel imports eclipses the value of solar panel impors.
A solar panel in Nigeria now costs just $60, and can repay the cost of diesel for a generator within 6 months - and even less in other countries.
This research is based on Chinese customs data, which we convert from $ into MW in our China Solar Export Explorer.
It's good data, but we need MUCH MORE research and analysis to track the rise of solar in Africa.
Africa is not the new Pakistan - yet.
However, the first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa is now here.
And in the world of solar, change can happen very quickly
Global energy use in 2024 was 172,222 terawatt-hours. African solar produced 15. That’s 0.009% of global energy consumption. Completely noise-level and negligible.
This is significant for geopolitics of trade. China is exporting its green Industrial Revolution to Africa. Potentially enabling them to industrialise and overcome conditions of underdevelopment without reliance on fossil fuels.
Africa's skipping the 20th-century grid the same way it skipped landlines - straight to distributed, ultra-low-cost solar.
When a <$60 Chinese panel + $15 battery = lights + phone charging + small business, the ROI beats waiting decades for poles & wires.
Everyone used to say Africa’s solar boom was all promise and little progress. Not anymore. Imports climbed 60% year over year, reaching 15 GW. Algeria stunned the market with 6,300% growth. Nigeria has taken the lead over Egypt. And even smaller players like Chad and Liberia are
A great discussion happening live right now around RE and smart grids.
It's clear that we need to lean in on solar and battery for a more decentralized energy system.
More distributed = more resilient
What a lovely read , when you compare solar with diesel generators the numbers are amazing (6 months pay back)
What about battery imports? Seems like you'd want the lights on when the sun's not up.
Lifepo4 batteries are a very reasonable now
Can someone explain the very recent and dramatic surge, seen in many of these graphs around the present day? It feels like one specific event changed something.
Would love to South Africa’s solar imports over the last 3 years.
Our estimates were around ~3GW until last year. These solar imports have solved a lot of power supply shortfalls on our grid. Loadshedding is mostly a thing of the past now.
Morocco utilizes extensive solar power due to its abundant sunshine, aiming for 52% of its electricity to come from renewables by 2030.
with electric motor bikes becoming a thing in Africa thats probably one big consumer for that electricity.
The other maybe AC?
How are those countries going to convert all of the intermittent and variable dollops of energy those solar panels provide, into what they actually need, namely nonstop, controllable power?