This was a good article (with a cheeky headline) about inflation dynamics that I wish more people had read and learned from.
I'll discuss, starting with a confession of error.
Conversation
I was aware of the calculations which held that ARP was much larger than the output gap, especially in light of the extra savings people had stocked away during the pandemic.
But I was skeptical this would be particularly inflationary.
My thought was that if excess demand led goods prices to shoot up, then an American public that was used to a generation-long trend of *falling* goods prices would simply stop buying things and check the inflationary spiral.
In the end, you'd get higher household savings.
Per 's article, this is not what happened.
People got *mad* about rising prices, but they kept buying stuff anyway. This consumer behavior, willingness to spend down pandemic savings on buying pricier stuff, was a key inflation driver.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/
Complaining is costless. Next is substitution, then refusal (not reaching s market clearing price). Few have patience enough to let the market work it out.
People don’t realize that inflation is the market begging you to spend less
$SPY $SPX The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is 21.68x to start 2025. Historically, higher valuations have led to lower long-term returns.
Are we heading for muted gains?
Here’s the historical context:
#SP500 #Investing #Markets
Prob I’m just lazy but I would never group dishwashers with cruises, jewelry, & new cars.
To me it’s a modern convenience (like AC in hot climates) that there’s no going back from.
Offer me the world’s finest china - if it ain’t dishwasher safe, no thanks!
seems like you guys, like most economists, just don’t understand people at all.
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