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Update: Treasury rates continue rising up, up, and away. These rates alone could add $500 billion more to annual interest costs within a decade (relative to the CBO baseline of 3.6% govt interest rates). Caution: Depressing charts to follow: 🧵
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Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦
@JessicaBRiedl
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The biggest story few are talking about: CBO projects that the government's interest rate never exceeds 3.6% over 30 years. If rates remain at 4.5%, that adds $40 trillion more to interest costs over 30 years - as much as adding a second Defense Department.
Below are the interest costs based on CBO's low-interest rate (current policy) baseline. If rates settle at 4.6% instead of 3.6%, then annual interest costs jump to $2.5 trillion within a decade - consuming one-third of all federal taxes. Or all your federal taxes until May 1.
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Interest costs have recently surpassed Medicaid, Defense, and Medicare, and are set to surpass Social Security within two decades - or closer to 12 years if interest rates remain elevated.
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Lest anyone think a debt-and-interest spiral would be no big deal, the sober-minded economists at Penn-Wharton cannot even model out a functioning economy over the long-term. Can someone please wake up Congress before they pile on a $5 trillion tax cut?
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