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Colombia has had one of the fastest fertility drops in the world, from 2.57 births/woman in 2000 all the way down to 1.2 in 2024. How can it be that Colombia, with a GDP of 7K per year, has a fertility so much lower than the US? And why is this happening across Latin America? 🧵
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Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
@JesusFerna7026
📉 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the Americas: A Quiet Revolution Here are the most recent TFR figures (2023 or 2024) for the 10 most populous countries in the Americas, based on national statistical agencies: 🇺🇸 United States: 1.63 🇧🇷 Brazil: 1.47 🇲🇽 Mexico: 1.60 🇨🇴 Colombia:
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David Watson 🥑
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Colombia recorded only 445,000 births in 2024, way below UN projections of 701,000 births, for an official fertility rate of just 1.06 births per woman, and just 0.84 in Bogotá. (The true rate may be a little higher with unregistered births.) Why such a dramatic collapse? 2/10
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The biggest cause is the disappearance of marriage. The rate of marriage in Colombia plunged to just 1.4 per 1000 people in 2022 according to OECD statistics, lowest in the world. (The US which has also seen a big drop still has a marriage rate 4 times as high at 6.0.) 3/10
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Marriage turns out to be central to healthy fertility and no country with a marriage rate under 5.0 reaches replacement. Colombia's marriage rate is so low, it wouldn't even fit on this chart. 4/10
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A 2023 paper underscores the disappearance of marriage across Latin America. Already by the 1970s birth cohort, just 1/4 Colombian women were married by 35. Among younger women, the rates are lower still. 5/10
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But can't women just have children without marriage? In theory yes, and for a while 'births of passion' to younger women up the difference. But now, thanks to better birth control, births to young women have plummeted, a 2024 paper showed. Later births barely budged. 6/10
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Why aren't later births making up the difference in Latin America? A 2019 paper sheds light. Women rely on permanent sterilization at very high rates in these countries. The reason seems to be that single motherhood is so hard that women are stopping after 1 or 2 children. 7/10
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As for why marriage rates have dropped so low (now the lowest in the world) in Latin America, that is a more difficult question. The fierce independence of Latin American women is one answer. The perceived unreliability of men is another. 8/10
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Also, the declining influence of the Catholic church in Colombia and other Latin countries has played a role in declining marriage and thus falling fertility. In an article, I explored why fertility has fallen hard in (formerly) Catholic countries. 9/10
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Article cover image
Why Have Birthrates Crashed in Majority Catholic Countries?
Could allowing priests or nuns to marry spark a turnaround? And other ideas! By Daniel Hess With 2024 nearly complete, we have fertility numbers for the first three quarters of the year, and for...
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@MoreBirths
The Latin American Family Model Hit Hardest Central and South America have long had some of the lowest marriage rates in the world. Even as US marriage rates fell, marriage rates south of the border were always much lower. For a while, birthrates held up, because out-of-wedlock
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Mateo
@mat_tye
The concept of marriage is very different in Colombia. Couples living together are generally considered married and have similar legal rights as traditionally married couples. I don’t have an explanation for the decrease in births, tho 🤷🏻‍♂️
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J. Rolf Haltza
@RolfHaltza
Colombia is the newly designated whorehouse of the imperial metropole. Whoring around + widely available contraception means lots of sex but no children.
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Casey Hills
@caseyhills
The increase in family planning programs that include female sterilization, IUDs, and birth control implants. More and more Colombian women are choosing not to get pregnant.
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Ryan Cassidy
@rcssdy
not surprised at all most of them are far too busy revealing themselves on Instagram to be concerned with a genuine relationship
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SSlop
@SustainableSlop
I don’t think that the disappearance of marriage is the cause of Colombia’s fertility drop. It’s more likely that these two things have one common underlying cause.
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Jager
@JagerCurran
Women. I don’t mean this in a negative way but it is the women. As they spend more time, being educated and are forced to work in order to live. This is the result.
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R0dra
@CmovementD
All by design - AI and Robotics will do everything for the rich and elite. They don't need people anymore.
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Renki
@HikaruiTen
The opportunity cost for women wanting to get married and having kids sits at the bottom rung there.
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Joshua
@tangojoshua
East Asia and Lat Am both experience falls starting in 2014 - basically when they have 100% smartphone penetration and Instagram
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Marcos Bento
@bentir
beautiful pic of Bogotá. I remember travelling in Leticia by the Amazon river in 2015. The amount of children filling the streets after school was a sight to behold.
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J.fernando
@jfer113
Too much explanations for something very simple, if my generation can’t even afford to buy a house they can’t even think of having a child. That’s all
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LaimisŽebelys
@ZebelysL
I see the drop in marriage as itself a symptom, not the root cause. The cause is these cultures developing enough to enter a world, a type of living that they are not adapted to at all. Their religions were made for a very different way of living, so we are witnessing the crash
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Jackys Schas Mebarak
@jjschas
1. In Colombia, approximately 84% of children are born to single mothers, placing the country among those with the highest rates globally. Many women are not eager to have children solely as a means of survival.
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Vanyali
@VanyaWright
PFAS causes infertility, bioaccumulates in people, and is in the food and water all over the world.
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zach
@Goodbytes
What can be done about this that doesn’t require rolling back freedoms and human rights as so many commenters are alluding to but aren’t saying the quiet part out loud
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Shawn Gallagher
@ChildbirthJoy
I don't know about Colombia, but I have a client who flew from Canada for fertility treatment. Colombia has excellent fertility clinics. Low marriage rates are prob a factor, but poisoning (vaccines, environmental, food) would affect everyone. How many want babies but can't?
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Adam Slagle
@SlagleAdam73652
Wide access to birth control which is not a bad thing and helps women not have early pregnancies which makes it harder to be financially stable
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LZ
@luisz_1
Many men here blame women, yet forget a point that this post highlights: The unreliability of men.
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Hutontiber
@hutontiber
Because it was never about income, it was always about ideology. There is a gross disconnect between the partner people believe they can get, and the partner for whom they actually qualify. The longer the delayed, the less likely family formation.
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Mario Soto
@mario_sotom
Respuesta: cultura traqueta. Los jóvenes de Colombia prefieren plata, lujos y viajes antes que formar familia.
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Black And Lady
@blackandlady
A little‑talked factor in Colombia’s falling birth rate: Since Law 1412 of 2010, anyone 18+ can get a FREE vasectomy or tubal ligation—no children required, no partner’s consent, no age limits. More reproductive autonomy, fewer births.
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e10
@diez_esteban
Nuevo piropo romántico para estos tiempos: ven, vamos mi amor a combatir esta estadística y revertir la tendencia! 😄
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Sebastián
@Ohtar_Luin
In those years the government support and sponsored many policies against teenager pregnancy (that were the main group of people that were getting pregnant) due that policy the birth rate dropped. Also, we can see that life got expensive so there’s no much eagerness to get a baby
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Ark
@Ark1660346
Because everyone packed up and hit the road for the US southern border.
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Guillermo Mena 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦
@GuilloMena
You pulled the “cause” out of your ass to fit your priors and it would be best for everyone if you shoved it back in there.
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