A couple of folks have crunched the numbers (Evercore ISI - their chart, below; ) and concluded that the U.S. weighted average tariff, with all Trump's new orders in effect, will be higher than under Smoot-Hawley.
Conversation
![David Watson 🥑](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="96" height="96"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
Post your reply
Quote
Danielle Fong 
@DanielleFong
maybe trump was sleeping through this part.
many such cases x.com/greg_ip/status…
0:03 / 1:15
$SPY $SPX The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is 21.68x to start 2025. Historically, higher valuations have led to lower long-term returns.
Are we heading for muted gains? 
Here’s the historical context: 
#SP500 #Investing #Markets
Here’s the historical context:
#SP500 #Investing #Markets
Agreed. People talked about DeepSeek as a Sputnik moment, but the Smoot-Hawley moment may be more to the point. It took several years for that folly to be recognized.
today's global economy is way more integrated and than the 1930s. question is if they'll actually achieve the intended reshoring of manufacturing or just accelerate the shift to automation and alternative supply chains. consumers will feel it first either way
For all the tariff debate, this seems simple: it's a tax increase, and it doesn't seem progressive.
Greg - You realize the Smoot Hawley tariffs were ad valorem (dollar amounts) that were initially fairly small when our net export channel was 5% of GDP, it was the ‘31 banking crisis and resultant 25-30% CPI/PPI deflation that increased their size in percent terms. Doug Irwin’s
slamming on the brakes on growth. trumpers are degrowthers. and, while at it, let's misallocate capital and create dead weight. forget comparative advantage. every country can each reshore everything. we'll make our own fenders and washers, thank you.
Absolutely insane. This is gonna trigger a global recession, mark my words.
The BITX ETF seeks 2x leveraged exposure to bitcoin futures. BITX seeks to benefit from increases in the price of bitcoin. Learn how to invest today at Volatility Shares and Click here for fund disclosures: bit.ly/3CEfUZz
![](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="1200" height="675"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
I see a chart that says that number prior to 4/2 was where we should be. Announcement today is intended to created leverage to get there.
Also, Trump saying we have been ripped off for decades makes sense with this chart
The BITX ETF seeks 2x leveraged exposure to bitcoin futures. BITX seeks to benefit from increases in the price of bitcoin. Learn how to invest today at Volatility Shares and Click here for fund disclosures: bit.ly/3CEfUZz
For perspective, US tariffs ranged from 15% to 50% in the 19th century. The US economy became #1 in 1890. The date range chosen & Smoot-Hawley reference are intended to mislead rather than illuminate. The erroneous point is that 20% tariffs are synonymous with economic depression
The BITX ETF seeks 2x leveraged exposure to bitcoin futures. BITX seeks to benefit from increases in the price of bitcoin. Learn how to invest today at Volatility Shares and Click here for fund disclosures: bit.ly/3CCsh8v
think their estimate includes 25% tariffs on Canada + Mexico... if you bring that down to 7.5% and 5% respectively based on the exemptions, effective tariff rate is closer to 20% i believe
I think the problem is that we don’t realize how much everything we use is or in part connected to trade on the things we use. It’s like when there is a power outage we get shocked on how much we can’t do without electricity. Everything is connected.
Fordney-McCumber Tariff Act of 1922 Is more relevant. That had more impact o the great depression not smoot hawley
Tariffs are terrible. They transfer wealth from consumers to producers and hinder growth. Smoot-Hawley was a nightmarish disaster. However, to correctly interpret your chart we must be aware, among other things, the highest income tax rate started the 1920s at 77%. 1/2
I assume it will go down as other countries lower tariffs and we have increased global trade?
would that work?
The Great Depression in 12 Minutes (Casual Economics)
explain the implications for having tarriffs that are higher than smoot hawley
If I were a U.S. trading partner I'd be thinking seriously about making a deal ... not counting on crashing the world economy to get the U.S. to cave.
Analysis of the specific Trump Administration Executive Orders and other actions:
It dropped to 25% in the mid-1920s, was raised to 63% in 1932, peaked at 94% in 1944, and stayed above 70% for a few decades.
Great Depression 2.0! Thank you president Trump! Because we'll have to climb out of this the same way we climbed out of it last time, unionize the nation! The wealthy lorded over us around 1900. By 1950, 45% of workers were unionized and the middle class was born! #UnionStrong
Going to piss myself laughing when Trump call's in people's gold like it's the 1930's. 
President Trump issued an executive order indicating that he will focus on using the Alien Enemies Act to combat international cartels that have become entwined with “mafia states”.
You are correct and I don't understand why he thinks that this will increase investment for your country?
$NVDA is down over 16%
Yesterday evening, we tweeted about the $25M in Puts being purchased on $NVDA. DeepSeek AI news came out and NVDA dropped $24 today.
Want to see trades like this? Try our 7 day free trial at: quantdata.us
He is gambling on retaliation from other countries to make this work.
He can then sell it to his voters
By a whopping 2% which will all be negotiated downward from here. Fake news diving head first into the empty pool once again. Activists like are in hog heaven.
These tariffs aren't the same because the tariffs our trading partners levy on us aren't the same.
Really? Did they factor in negotiations? I bet they have another table they aren’t sharing
When the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were imposed we had a trade surplus. Now we have the biggest trade deficit in the history of the world.
$SPX is down ~2% again 
Our analyst purchased puts on $SPX live yesterday. SPX rapidly dropped to the area of the largest negative gamma exposure (-50M) at the $5,300 strike.
Want to see data like this? Try our 7-day free trial at: quantdata.us
Have to think any right minded CEO is not going to rush out and invest billions on expanded manufacturing operations knowing that these tariffs are likely to be shortlived as in Trump’s term in office
