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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Consider: The +600GW of solar the world will add this year, has the TWh generation of 150 nuclear plants. The world has 60 new nuclear plants in construction, that may start in 5-10 years. Solar is building the generation output of all of them combined, Every Four Months.
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David Watson 🥑
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Now, I am being a little optimistic with the assumptions here, doesn't change much. Used global CF of 80% for nuke, new plants will likely be better. For solar, 25% CF which US av, not the world. Let's try: Nuke, 60 x 90% CF = 54 Solar 600GW x 17% CF = 102 Now = per 6 months
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
California, 5th largest GDP -This yr CA batts took over gas, supplying 6hrs of evening power, providing output of 7 large nukes -Built in 3yrs - 2019, CA had 770MW of storage, now, 14X more, will add +3.8GW this yr. CA hit above 100% RE for +100 days this yr. Solar @ night.
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Spikels 🏴‍☠️
@Spikels
That's 600GW of solar RATED CAPACITY. Even under ideal conditions it will produce less than 25% of this, less than 150GW of ACTUAL POWER on average. This is because the sun is either low in the sky or not shining at all most of the day.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
150GW of "actual power" is charitably 150 nukes running at 100% CF (which they don't do). That's solar matching the net output generation of 60 nukes every 4.8 months. US solar CF is 25%. 600 x .25 = 150.
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Hemu
@HiddeMulder2
You do have to remember that a lot of the solar is thrown away. In Germany 20% is thrown away and this will probably go to 40% or more. Also it doesn’t cover a lot in most needed periods (winter). Btw 600 GW of solar is probably more like 80 nuclear reactors.
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Jake Dieterich
@jakedieterich
I love solar, especially when utilized on land where agriculture cannot be utilized or on rooftops. But there are some things to consider here other than True Power. Reactive Power and Frequency Regulation are still primarily taken care of by thermals due to inertia.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Multiple strategies. We've never used one basket. Wind + solar + hydro + biomass + pumped hydro + battery + demand response control + distributed energy resources + efficiency + productivity + grid interconnection.
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Nate Klingenstein
@GlenwoodNate
Among other blunders, you're going by nameplate capacity, and you're not going to get the ~100% capacity factory with solar. Second, I still haven't heard anyone explain to me how we're going to recycle the panels.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Wrong. I specifically refer to generation. Capacity is nameplate capacity. That's what it is. Try asking questions rather than revealing you didn't read or don't understand the material. Every 4-6 months, the world adds the generation output of all 60 nukes in construction.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
My 12kw array has made 108MWh in 7yrs. 100% of that was used, exactly none of it involved batteries. After paying for itself in year 9, it will go on to make me $40k profit over the years. Free electricity. How much does something cost when it makes you $40k?
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
PJM uses ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capacity) to measure the reliability value of generation sources. Hybrid solar projects are solar plus battery plants and have the same reliability value as gas.
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John Raymond Hanger 
@johnrhanger
Replying to @johnrhanger
PJM uses ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capacity) to measure the reliability value of generation sources. Hybrid solar projects are solar plus battery plants and have reliability value similar to gas. pjm.com/-/media/planni
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Neil Wilson
@swampfoxpro
I think that you have not considered that in 20 years all the solar and wind power that is standing now, will be gone. There will come a time when w/s will not keep up with the end of life of these. Trying to fill the bathtub with plug out.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
100% of a PV panel is recyclable. 100% of a turbine is recyclable, except for the foundation. 90% of solar has been built in the 12yrs, great wave of retirement, decades away. Vast profitable industry will be there to make $ recycling the components. (IRENA) estimates by 2050,
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Duke Energy
@DukeEnergy
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Ulf W
@uwb1964
Only that solar only produces when the sun is above the horizon, and uneven over the day. Nuclear produces 24/7.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Does water still flow down hill at night? Geothermal still work? Battery storage work? Wind still blow? Bio Mass still burn? Yes. All the different forms of RE complement each other and work in concert. As the dirty carbon stuff dies & gets pushed out. Globally, nuke works 80%.
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ciquta
@ciquta
you're being too nice comparing solar built this year with all the nukes in the process (some since 2007) if you account only for yearly installations solar alone is adding the output of all of the nukes combined every week or so 💀
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Yep. What did nuke net last year? -1.7GW. Change in production contribution in last 19yrs? -2.3%.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
I monitor each panel down to the watt any time of the year I like. The goal is to generate 100% of net usage. Every kWh my solar makes is a kWh avoided by the inferior stuff. US grid eats 10TWh per day. More & more this will be provided by the RE, pushing the old dirty stuff out.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
US has ~600 GW of dispatchable solar/wind plus battery projects in interconnection queues. That's 35X new data center load (17 GW) forecasted by 2030.
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John Raymond Hanger 
@johnrhanger
Good morning with good news: US has ~600 GW of dispatchable solar/wind plus battery projects in interconnection queues! That's 35X new data center load (17 GW) forecasted by 2030. PJM says reliability value of solar/wind plus battery is similar to gas! emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/
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Obscurity4Life
@Obscurity4Life
What's the lifetime of nuclear versus solar panels. Isn't 4here an issue with solar whereby it's life shortens if you so jot use the juice it produces as its produces
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
US utility solar, 33yrs. US nuke, 42 yrs. Global nuke, 28yrs. Due to age, IAEA expects 139GW of lost nuclear capacity from 2018-2030 plus 186GW gone from 2030-2050." reneweconomy.com.au/in-2022-nuclea That's 70% of existing nuke capacity, gone in 25yrs.
reneweconomy.com.au
In 2022, nuclear power’s future looks grimmer than ever
As new renewable energy capacity continues to boom, nuclear power generation declined in 2021 and the industry’s future is grimmer than it has ever been.
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💹⚛️🛢️⚒️🧬⚡🏗️✈️🚀🤖🍕🥩⚽
@gschifini
Intermittent, unreliable, in 20 years dumped in a land fill and needs to be replaced.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Every part of a panel is recyclable, if we care to bother. Each 50lb panel can avoid burning about 15 tons of coal. In 20sq feet of space. Pays back energy & carbon in 6 months. Standard warranties are 25 yrs, utility solar lasts 33yrs on average. Beats nuke.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Last year per 9 months, then 6 months, now 4 months. Solar's exponential growth means it will be replacing existing nuke faster & faster. World now adds 1.6GW of solar per day. Time to add 1GW 2000: 1 yr 2010: 2 weeks 2015: 1 week Now: less than a day 2030: every 8 hrs
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
That's why I gave both. GW is how we measure installed capacity, so we would be remiss to not refer to that. The specific point is how often solar is building the operational output of all 60 nukes in construction. That's per 4-6 months. Pretty amazing really.
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ChudDwyer
@chud_dwyer
Nuclear is the most cost efficient and environmentally friendly means of energy and its not even close
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
You're right that it's not even close. If you think nuke is better at things (it isn't), you're holding the chart upside down.
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
Did you tap that out on your Chinese phone or your Chinese computer? The planet doesn't care who makes clean energy products neither do I. While the US was dragging its feet and playing with MAGA, China was wisely planning to build for the future. So, 80% of panels are made in
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
If only there were ways to store some, trade with neighbors and diversify sources. Good news. There are lots of ways. Wind +hydro +biomass +pumped hydro +battery +demand response control +distributed energy resources +efficiency Etc.
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I Kaya
@kaya85kaya
Once you get near to saturating your grid the value of additional solar panels plummet and the deployment rate crashes Germany has been doing mass solar deployment for 20 years now and solar is not even 15% of their generation Without v cheap 🔋 solar has hard ceiling
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Dardedar
@Dardedar
(L) Actually, Germany slowed their new solar roll sharply in 2012. (R) In 2023 Solar is 79TWh of 240TWh. That's 33%, not 15%. RE all together was 60% last year. Likely 80% by 2030. 30yrs ago German utilities said RE could never do more than 4%.
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