Took me a bit to realize this, but it turns out the actual election map we got on Tuesday was the model's modal map — the one that occurred by far the most often in our simulations!
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It's the big spike you see here. (I'm assuming AZ and NV get called for Trump.)
Trump's overperformances relative to this map area also interesting though. And also low-key good news for Democrats in reducing/inverting the Electoral College bias against them.
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Today, I want to talk about an under-the-radar movement: pension funds adding millions in crypto. As voters decide on their leaders, institutions are deciding onShow more
Silver: "Took me a bit to realize this, but my shilling for the Dems was way too obvious this time. Will re-work my model for 2026 midterms so I can perpetuate this grift."
It turns out the actual election map is the one that occurs if you just factor in your polling error from the last two elections.
Trump is unique. For his second term we have two data points instead of the typical 1. This was an easy call but you didn't have the guts to make
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I enjoyed following your model throughout the election Nathan Silver
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pretty hard to explain a 50/50 forecast when it was pretty much a blowout and other smaller forecasters had it right here on X with repeated explanations.
This is the most pathetic post I’ve seen all day. “After the fact, even though I never said it during the election season, I was correct”
Glad I saw this post on my feed, since it reminded me to unfollow you.
Your services are no longer needed, will be using from now on.
Factores no contemplados en las encuestas podrían favorecer a Trump en la recta final
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Oh, come on...you said Harris would win something like 40,200 times out of 80,000.
Based on what happened Tuesday, that number is probably less than 500.
And probably closer to 0
I’ve defended you in the past but you had a shocker this time around. And the worst thing is all the data was right there you just refused to see it.
How does a coin toss turn into the largest Republican EV win since the 80s and first popular vote win since 2004?
That’s not a 50/50. Trump was given a mandate. And you missed it?
What about the one in 2015 where you confidentially said that "HRC had a 93% of winning" The grift is real
“Oh wait, it turns out the exact opposite of what I said is what I really meant!”
You’re a fucking clown.
Now drift into irrelevancy.
Why couldn't you just make a prediction, hopefully an accurate one? You were beat by a freedom fries Polymarket trader who seemed to use simple arithmetic.
What was with the 80,000 model runs leaning toward Harris? It doesn't make sense that you couldn't generate a serious,
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Many understand that the Electoral College is important but can’t explain why—even Americans who love this country. After watching this twelve-minute video taught by Hillsdale politics professor Kevin Portteus, one viewer commented, “This makes so much more sense now. Thanks!”
Day of election: “Hey, it’s 50/50!”. You are bad at your job and bald.
Funny I realized it right away, even posted about it )(on FB). But I can’t imagine the analysis paralysis the Nate’s of the world must experience. Easy to miss something like this.
Can someone explain to me why I f this was the outcome that the model predicts most often — and by a lot it seems — then why was the forecast 50/50?
Did you forget you retweeted this yesterday?
Quote
Liam Donovan
@LPDonovan
People somehow blocked this out of their memory by huffing vibes over the final week x.com/NateSilver538/…
A movement is growing to change the way we elect our president. That’s why Hillsdale College is conducting a National Survey on Presidential Selection.
Complete this survey to help us more clearly understand the views of mainstream Americans concerning this issue.
I think polling in the post-Trump era will change and "maybe" it gets back to being more predictable *if* that field has not been irrevocably captured by special interest.
Never listening to you again. You sold the message that needed to be sold. Congrats
This is like when I asked ChatGPT for a world series prediction (put in the x-stats) and it said sweep lol. I asked it to markov chain it; but it wouldn't budge. Ooof (NY lost 1-4).
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A sprawling manor you build as you explore, room by room.
No two days play out the same.
Play the demo now!
s.team/a/1569580
Blue Prince is unlike anything you have played before. 
Indeed! We explain it in our last analysis *before the election*, based on your model: the single most likely result was the red-seven-states-wave, with ~23% prob 
Quote
Kiko Llaneras
@kikollan
Replying to @kikollan
¿Cómo? Hemos tomado 40.000 simulaciones de @NateSilver538 para poner probabilidades. Hay cientos de permutaciones, en función de qué Estados ganen Harris y Trump, pero nos hemos fijado en los siete territorios clave. El resumen:
Many understand that the Electoral College is important but can’t explain why—even Americans who love this country. After watching this twelve-minute video taught by Hillsdale politics professor Kevin Portteus, one viewer commented, “This makes so much more sense now. Thanks!”
Nate has no interest in getting it right & even if he did it wouldn't matter because he wouldn't be able to see his own blind spot (his love for the Democrat Party). In the end, he will always run his model enough times until the Democrat Presidential candidate is the favorite.
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Blue Prince - Play the Demo on Steam!
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If you said all this before the election results it would be meaningful.
x.com/snoble/status/ exactly!
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Steven Klaiber-Noble
@snoble
Replying to @pescami
It's not just the ec count he'd get right. This is exactly his modal map.
Can we get your thoughts on the Electoral College?
Yet Harris was the favorite.
Might want to go back to the drawing board.
