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Having interviewed a bunch of oncologists about how they communicate with patients, this is true.
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Is there a second part of this that shows the underestimation of the majority groups?
yea!
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Basil
@LinkofSunshine
Replying to @LinkofSunshine
Note theyre very good at 50% prob. things and bad at everything else!
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30% of Americans live in NYC
30% of Americans live in Texas
30% of Americans live in California
so incredibly true
I think people just tend to struggle with the idea that your own experiences are not necessarily representative of the whole, or of anything other than your own experience.
- Only 6% of Americans are Asian? Really?
- That canโt be! Three Asian families live on my street!
30% LIVE IN NYC???
somebody save the US education system. are they not taught how to estimate reasonably?
many are the same way with probability. if something has a 51% chance of happening, then it must be bound to happen; if something has a 49% chance of happening, thereโs no way it happens
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There cannot be people that think California is more than 33% of the population of the US?!
Not going to lie it is deeply weird every time I see the low percentage of Jewish people in the US population and think about how many people I know personally who are Jewish
Of course the same is true of trans people
People understand all-none-some and yes-no-maybe.
It's obvious on the "some" categories they have a vague idea but bias heavily toward the middle.
I wonder how this corresponds to representation and percent focus in the media people consume
I noticed something during the elections. Many look to politicians as if theyโre our saviors, letting hope rise or fall based on whoโs in the White House.
Yes, policies and ideologies matter, and our country is truly remarkable. But even so, it pales next to our eternal home. If
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This strikes me as over sampling of elites but maybe elite influence is being pushed on to society (elites make up more influential positions on average) explains this.
This is not elitist, itโs probably just true and supported by data.
they also donโt understand 0%, 50%, and 100%, but they donโt understand the rest as well
People literally think 60% of the country lives in CA and TX....I mean this is avg of combined polls but still....sheesh.
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While youโre 100% right, the question is what did this poll look like? If it was just some online clicker, we can safely dismiss this whole thing as clickbait nonsense
I believe much of that is due to two reasons. First, minority voices are often elevated because they are different(Dog bites Man vs Man bites Dog) while majority voices are drowned out unless they act in unison. Second, people tend to live in echo chambers only associated with
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The AVERAGE estimate for pop living in nyc is 30?? wtf were people guessing
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From the comments people are bad at reading graphs.
Red = actual numbers
Blue = what people believe
Itโs like that with average too. They think itโs the same as 99% and they think the range surrounding it is much smaller than it actually is.
Exemplified in the โThE aVeWaGe CoThT oF a HoUtH iN aMeWiCa ItH fOuW hUnDwEd ThOuThAnD DaWlErThโ
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Marchese Methods
@MarcheseMethods
Housing is Not THAT Expensive
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Cue whiney milennial seethe.
It may be more expensive than it once was, & strugglesome to afford for the absolutely destitute, but it's certainly in arms reach for many people. The...
I think it's a well-known phenomenon, I remember reading about this human psychological bias years ago, maybe in some Daniel Kahneman works?
No way people believe 87% of the country is Jewish, Muslim or atheist lol
How the hell do people think 41% of the population is black? No wonder they think they're so underrepresented in media haha.
Like how liberals think unarmed black men getting shot by police is in the 10s of thousands per year when the actual number is like 2
Except this completely overlaps with progressive values and DEI and how it manifests across workplace initiatives and media ranging from news, to movies, to commercials during a hockey game.
They're not dumb about numbers, they're just buying the propaganda.
"Are transgender"
> estimated proportion 21%
My estimated proportion for Americans that are giving stupid is >50%
as it is worth bearing in mind, the type of people who will gladly answer these polls most likely aren't high-IQ CEOs and senior chemical engineers.
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part of me wonders if you'd get similar answers if you reframed the questions as "in a room of 100 random americans"
Stuff like this is so suspect to me. Like I actually refuse to believe that any representative sample believes that *20%* of people are trans. Literally that is insane.
i feel it appropriate to once again bring up that we are, after all, the country that caused/allowed the 1/3 pounder to fail because enough people thought the 1/4 pounder was bigger.
i like how this implies 90% of the population lives in california, texas, and nyc
Very funny that this implies that 59% of the population is gay or bisexual
I believe people understand 33% and maybe even 20%. He problem is that they definitely donโt understand the difference between 1/1,000 and 1/100,000. And whether they round 1/100,000 down to zero or up to 20% forms their politics.
Maybe people are operating with a heavy bayesian prior of 'If I don't know what % something is, guess 50%'.
If you truly have no idea and are using squared errors to evaluate your estimate, it's a good bet.
Some of these numbers are crazy. What is YouGov's sampling methodology?
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A lot of people freak out when it comes to *anything* math.
People are (somewhat understandably) making fun of how according to this 90% of the population lives in California, NYC, or Texas, but the moment they get a hint that something's wrong, most will add it up and revise
Hot take: this shows less inability to use percentages beyond 0/50/100 and more "I have no idea, so I'll hedge my bets so I'm closer to the truth than not" / relying on Regression To The Mean
Some of it is the effect of the influencers, social media algos, and establishment media promoting certain groups.
Onlookers start to think that those minority groups are more numerous or important than the people promoted really are
I want "error bars" and a median response on there. It's crazy for the average response to be that 30% of the population (100MM people!) lives in NYC, but what % are answering <5%, and what % >50%? I don't expect a normal distributionโI expect a bump in the <10% range.
This isnโt an Americans issue, itโs a humans issue. Weโre awful at understanding probabilities, because hunter-gatherers only need to know three odds; will happen, canโt happen, might happen.
Ur doing the graph rn lol
โBasil overestimates the proportion of Americans that are sincerely unable to comprehend percentages that are not 0%, 50%, or 100%โ
I think it's more that if people have no idea they feel safer going within the middle 50% bracket (25%-75%) Something about going more toward the extremes requires confidence.
Also, depending on how people are asked they may think they're being asked because it's unusually high.
92% of Americans live in California, Texas, or New York. 98% of Americans are Muslim, Jewish, or Catholic.101% are Republicans or Democrats.
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โThey say sixty-five percent of all statistics are made up right there on the spot | Eighty-two-point-four percent of people believe 'em whether theyโre accurate statistics or notโ 
Though honestly some of these are very skewed depending on where the person lives, and I guess they're taking the averages of perceptions of people with different perceptions. The % of gun owners you see around you change if you live in NY or Texas for example.
Not to miss the point of the exercise, but I'm personally shocked by the atheist and homeownership figure. Most of these I would have been closer to accurate, but on those two I'm right with the rest of the country's (apparently inaccurate??) estimates.
While I think this is also true, I think the bigger problem is that people base these kinds of statistics based on their own personal knowledge. How many people do they personally know who live in NYC? a few maybe.
I think there has to be a genuine study on either the accuracy of the assumed estimates by the public or on how they can possibly think some of these are the case. 30% of the US population living in New York, 40% having done military service, 20% > $1 million but only 26% > $500K
I don't remember which fast food chain it was that tried to one-up the quarter pounder craze by making a 1/3 pound burger
They had to retire it because the average customer thought 1/3 lb was less than 1/4 lb