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New newsletter for you today on the Catalist report, considered the gold standard for election modeling. This took some work, but as I crunch the numbers, it suggests that persuasion rather than turnout was Democrats' big problem in 2024.
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David Watson 🥑
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I also think this point is often overlooked. If people don't vote, it often reflects indifference rather than laziness because they aren't persuaded by either party's message.
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Dem’s persuasion was “moralizing” the election
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David Procino
@APBIOonly
NYT: Six Months Later, Democrats Are Still Searching for the Path Forward ▶️ “Above all, we must shift from a moralizing tone”
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"she would have won the popular vote by around 400,000 voters without those dropoffs; the Electoral College would have been very close." And the turnout was often higher in the most important swing states, so dropoff voters would have less value. High drop-off in FL, NJ, NY, CA
This isn’t really surprising to anyone that doesn’t revere Democrat politicians as God-like figures. The quick attempt at rebranding Kamala was hilarious to watch, though…almost worked!
Can someone tell me…are the woke extremists going to vote for the fascist or let the fascist win if the Dems no longer give in to their hijacking?
Trying to figure your math out... how is it a *net* of 5.5 million to Trump when there was also a switch of 2.8 million from Trump to Harris? Wouldn't that be a net of 2.7 million towards Trump, not 5.5?
Dems got 15 MILLION fewer votes in 2024 and the election was decided by only a few million votes. How is that not a turnout problem? There is only one way it isn't: if there were millions of fraudulent Democrat votes in 2020.
How much did gerrymandering, banning voters and the chilling effect that creates contribute?The lead in the water is the likes of Fox News - a (rightly) angry but ultimately ill-informed population can be goaded into voting for a (whatever the hell Trump is).
Is it possible the new voter effect is about Trump rather than the Democrats' message? How did Trump do with new voters in 2016 and 2020?