Post

Conversation

The problem is, even if Trump retracts his trade policy, he can't credibly promise to keep it retracted. If the markets go back up, he'll feel emboldened (or bored) and impose the tariffs again. Only Congress can fix this problem by repealing the president's tariff authorities.
Quote
Noah Rothman
@NoahCRothman
He could just not do any of this. Most of it hasn’t even happened yet. There’s still time to just, you know, stop.
David Watson 🥑
Post your reply

I guess he could try firing the whole economic team and bringing back Cohn and Mnuchin -- maybe the markets would buy that?
Quote
Stan Veuger
@stanveuger
Trump has an even simpler out—call off Wednesday’s tariffs and fire his core econ team (Bessent, Greer, Lutnick, Miller, Navarro). x.com/billackman/sta…
Not unrealistic scenario: Trump cuts some deals based on tariffs, but still believes the deficit is the problem. He reassesses things a year from now. Deficits still bad. We do this again next April.
Trump really does believe that tariffs provide free money—during his campaign, they were the basis for funding everything in his grab bag of promises. He’s never going to give them up.
Eh. The election already showed that people trust Trump and don't trust the pundits. Markets aren't going to overanalyze things to create a cope narrative about how Orange Man Bad like the pundits do.
After tomorrow's session, I've gotta imagine that Congress is gonna quickly turn on Trump. Very few members actually like this.
Update - He doubled down on it saying we can't have trade deficits, we should have trade surpluses So it is not about free trade but about trade deficits As Thomas Sowell said you should be slightly less concerned with trade deficits than being struck by lightning
Really unclear to me he even has the authorities he’s claiming under IEEPA. But unfortunately undoing this through the courts would be long, messy and uncertain. Congress needs to assert itself
I figure it will be a pause and a "now I have your attention" followed by some deal making and a watered down version of the same idea. Trump's is leaning on 'national emergency' to apply these and that's transparently silly given how long we've had trade deficits on purpose.
Or get the SC to revoke it on major questions/non-delegation doctrine. I'm not sure how that plays out, but short of declaring war, tariffing the globe and affecting every single business in the United States, seems... like the most major of questions, Dude.
GIF
That's absolutely right. Once trust goes, that's it. There's nothing Trump can say or do now. Congress must step in urgently and do its job.
uncomfortable analogy - trump is a drunk lunatic who wants to drive home and congress has to grab the keys.
As business leaders and world leaders are being burned by Trump’s whims they will never trust him again. In exercising his power full throttle Trump has ceded it. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Yep. And then you only get maybe 80% back. EU, Canada Mexico Japan all gone for defense products and won’t rely on the US for 20 years maybe
Right. I hesitate to say this is a real test for Congress, because they seem to be failing basic math lately so I am not optimistic.
Before he became a billionaire selling shitcoins Trump used to care about markets because he needed to operate a business. Now that he doesn't he just dgaf
He will highlight the initial wins starting tomorrow. This will take some punch out of the bear. More will follow. He will also make exceptions in certain cases to extend deadlines.
You guys are idiots. It’s happening to save the ENTIRE ECONOMY. WILD OVERSPENDING, and Janet Yellens short credit to pay back short debt when long debts are also coming to pass. What are you not getting about the situation we are in? They bailed out a bunch of banks last year…
Trump caused even more damage than that. He ran roughshod over Canada and Mexico, two of their closest allies, by flagrantly breaching the USMCA - a deal he himself negotiated. If the US can break treaties on a whim, what country in their right mind would trust the US again?
Or Congress could 1. Strip the President of this power 2. Impeach and Remove Trump and Vance to show that we want non insane people in office
You’ll need 2/3rds of Congress to override a veto. That’s not happening. I don’t think Democrats would help. They would think the political benefits outweigh the damage to the country. And plus the MAGA branch in the House is all on board. Courts are the only option.
Yeah but it’s really 2/3 of Congress cause he’ll veto anything that touches his authority to levy tariffs. I don’t see that happening in the House (probably not the Senate either)
As Summers said on CNN tonight, even if there is a change of course on tariffs there is no permanency in anything this administration does. Confidence has been lost.
The only way that bill is becoming law is if Congress passes it with veto proof margins.
Interest on debt alone is one trillion this isn’t sustainable so either deal with it now or have next generation pay the bill
1000 times yes - if congress refuses to behave as the founders intended, Trump's ignorance and narcissism will continue to wreak havoc
Markets have always dictated but markets got to realize one party now is tired of abuse and killing jobs here. They can’t look at it as just delaying for two years as this will happen in future as well they should bite the bullet and make changes instead of complaining.
he's already got Democrats publicly saying slave labor in Asia is key to the US economy...which is wild for politicians to start mainstreaming. defining credibility is a relative thing depending on what the goal/situation is. where a lack of *credible promise* is a good thing.