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One fascinating consequence of GLP-1s/Ozempic: For decades, people said that big pharma would never release actually effective obesity drugs because they’d lose too much money from downstream chronic disease treatment. We’re seeing almost the exact opposite.
David Watson 🥑
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It was always the dumbest thinking just like they think they won’t come up with a cure for cancer for the same reason.
Because maturing is ditching the “everything is a conspiracy by big corporations bro!”, and realizing that everything in life is just people figuring things out and making money off of it. Nothing sinister, maybe morally dubious or wrong, but not demonic
It serves as an example for the power of competition. Even if there were risks of a monopolist/cartel withholding treatment, there’s enormous profit from doing this as a single company, and the incentives are similar for all other companies.
Idk likely just like traditional dieting, if you stop taking GLP-1, MOST - read not all - will regain the weight. So you have a customer for life.
Well Ozempic will need to be taken for the rest of one’s life. Lifelong customer spending 12k a year is a way better set of margins than actually treating illnesses
I think this is mostly to Lilly and the other one owning the diabetes treatment facilities for them ti destroy. Also these GLP1s are chronic treatments… you take this stuff forever.
Yeah, because we can buy them from china for 1/10 the cost, and if they dont' sell them, they will lose trillions of dollars. Just because the medium-long term financial angle isn't obvious doesn't mean they are operating out of good will.
One step ahead.. they are gathering all the side effect issues of GLP and developing drugs to counteract that... Just watch....
It wasn’t developed for that purpose and probably wouldn’t have been but started as off label prescription for this indication.
We have yet to see the long term side effects. People forget Fen-Phen was all the rage until people started dying. I have a hunch big Pharma knows exactly what it’s doing.
so i think the cynical model assumed pharma optimizes for recurring revenue over cures. ozempic is a recurring revenue cure. incentives were never against effective treatment - just against treatment that doesn’t need to be taken foreverr.
The worry was that they’d cure a disease that hurt long term payments from the disease. In a world where GLP1 payments go on forever (so you keep the weight off) this isn’t an issue
This has more to do with the fact that companies that control GLP-1s don’t control everything else. There was real fear in companies with no say in the matter that GLP-1s would wipe out their business. But they couldn’t do anything to stop their release
I’m a 110% supporter of these meds. In my case, now Zepbound shots (Terzepitides). Transformative! But I saw one contrarian Doctor say, “millions of obese people will now live decades longer instead of DYING YOUNG 💀 But in the very end, the End of Life care will cost $$$!🤑
I saw an Eli Lilly ad on TV encouraging people to exercise. There were no drug advertisements. Just a plea to exercise for better mental health. I was stunned.
You have to keep using the thing for every. These drugs shrink fat cells but multiply the number of them. Stop using it and more fat than ever.
Except ozempic has massive side effects and long term issues. I love how everyone was skeptical about taking vaccines but nobody asked a single question about ozempic when it came out. Says a lot about the vanity of our society. They don’t care about health.
If you don’t see an epidemic on the other end of this that they’re absolutely going to capitalize on then you’re naive.
GLP-1's cause muscle loss, not just fat loss. If you stop taking the GLP-1 w/o first changing to a low-carb WOE & strength training, you'll gain back fat but not muscle. Lifetime customers, IOW. Another fascinating consequence: Gastroparesis.
The largest barrier is patent law. 20 years of a monopoly to produce. The patent will expire in a few years & it’ll break the supply chain. The other economic aspect that has sustained GLP-1 is that its use is encouraged for life. 20% of people who stop using it get big again
They are cashing in now knowing in the next few years AI is going to decimate their business model. They are not structured to handle an everything is individually tailored model and that's what AI is going to bring. And the tech companies that are going to usher that in don't
True. It's because the effect on the chronic disease market (and the addictive food market) is an "externality" that doesn't drive decisions in the GLP-1 business. It's nice to have this work in our favour for a change.