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Many point to demographics and compare China today to Japan in the late 80s / early 90s.
But if you examine developmental metrics, China today is much more similar to Japan in the late 70s / early 80s.
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Glenn
@GlennLuk
Replying to @GlennLuk
Some more data points from something I wrote 7 years ago: lukecapital.substack.com/p/could-china-
The table dates from 2012
Despite being a leader in early hybrids, Toyota went all-in on hydrogen
Japan’s economic issues go far deeper than demographics and “too much debt”
It’s deeply structural and the impending disruption of its crown jewel auto industry should be setting off DEFCON1-level alarms.
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Glenn
@GlennLuk
The dominant explanation on Japan’s stagnation is macro-economic in nature.
While I concur, less discussed is the impact of the rise of other East Asian export-oriented economies like Taiwan, SK and more recently China on the relative competitiveness of Japan’s economy x.com/FinFloww/statu…
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Germany holding serve on ICE to EV transition
China and Japan trading places
ICE: 
EVs:
EVs: Quote
Adam Tooze
@adam_tooze
Unsurprisingly Europe's biggest car manufacturer is also winning the battery race. Hungary's strong showing is part of Germany's "extended workbench".
ft.com/content/1d7f89
Japan has been “three years away” from producing EVs at scale for a decade now …
Seriously wtf is wrong with Toyota?
Might as well incorporate cutting-edge cash-handling and facsimile technology into next-generation Toyota ICE vehicles while they’re at it.
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Tonami Playman
@TonamiPlayman
Replying to @okaythenme
Meanwhile just a few days ago, Akio Toyoda is still pushing Internal Combustion Engines for Toyota.
At the Tokyo motorshow, Akio proposed to start a new engine development project and the new CEO Koji Sato agreed to it. I will have my popcorn to watch Toyota self destruct.
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The potential ramifications for the Japanese economy of a devastated auto industry are so massive, this calls for government intervention.
And you’d think that Japan, which has no oil reserves, would place more strategic consideration on this.
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Tony Seba
@tonyseba
“Toyota says EVs will never pass 30% globally, Seba says plugins already at 40% in China.” — @TheDriven_io
#Toyota, like many incumbents, can’t even forecast the present..
thedriven.io/2024/01/24/toy
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It continues to stun me just how stubbornly Japanese carmakers are holding onto the past, and how they prioritize perfecting increasingly outdated technology branches instead of embracing or creating new ones.
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Dr. Ho Yinsen
@kinjeketile
Toyota Is Developing New Combustion Engines - The company chairman believes people should have a choice rather than being forced to buy EVs.
motor1.com/news/706930/to
This seems to be a consistent pattern of behavior, from having the most impressive cash-handling machines on the planet to the smoothest-running internal combustion engines.
I experienced it firsthand last summer when we went to Tokyo.
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Glenn
@GlennLuk
Replying to @GlennLuk
On the one hand I marveled about the technology.
On the other hand I could not help but place it in the context of Japan’s general economic stagnation over the last 3 decades.
Interesting. Jaguar is owned by Tata Motors .
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Sawyer Merritt
@SawyerMerritt
NEWS: Jaguar has announced that it will halt production of its gas-powered models by June 2024.
This move is part of Jaguar’s plan to transition into an EV-only brand by 2025. driveteslacanada.ca/news/jaguar-to
Japan auto brands lagging on SW and modern cockpit design centered around a large LED touchscreen that are now ubiquitous for Chinese EV buyers.
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tphuang
@tphuang
Qin+ DM-i above, Sylphy bottom
When smart phones came along, ppl no longer wanted feature phones
Japan Inc are Nokia, China Inc are Android
Since BYD has made Qin+ cheaper than Sylphy
Who still wants to buy Sylphy?
Does Japan have s/w or AI talent to catch up to China? ofc not
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Such a contrast with Hyundai. Going all-in on EVs.
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John Raymond Hanger
@johnrhanger
Hmmm...Hyundai makes $51 Billion investment in EVs over next three years! It will hire 80,000 people!
Hyundai knows that the choice is transition to EVs or die. It looks like a survivor.
Credit @CoreyBCantor
msn.com/en-us/money/ot
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Toyota is actively funding a misinformation campaign pushing traditional hybrids over PHEVs and BEVs.
This is a bet-the-company strategy. If it fails, it just might take Japan’s auto industry with it.
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AukeHoekstra
@AukeHoekstra
I see @Toyota's chief scientist Gill Pratt everywhere with his seemingly 'sober' claim that scarce lithium should be used in small batteries for hybrid cars (that Toyota is market leader in of course).
He's calling out "EV-only extremists".
And it's such utter bollox.
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Japan is way behind the world on NEVs as a result even when it has all the ingredients to be a frontrunner.
Toyota’s misinformation campaign has gaslit an entire country and led it down this path.
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Tom Randall
@tsrandall
Replying to @tsrandall
Japan is the biggest EV laggard. It meets all the conditions that should make it a frontrunner in EVs. Instead, fully electric vehicles made up a measly 1.8% of new cars sold last year 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
Honda’s all-in … on “hybrids” or as I like to call them …
… “ICE vehicles with regenerative brakes”
Another one to add to this “wtf is Toyota doing?” collection.
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
Just catching up on the embarrassing news that Toyota is *still* promoting its utterly irrelevant Mirai hydrogen car as part of its #ParisOlympics sponsorship
Reality check (global sales, 2023):
8,900 = Hydrogen cars
9,500,000 = Battery EVs
Source: IEA
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Due to the EV transition, what is playing out in China with Japanese car companies is now playing out in other countries, almost like clockwork.
~3-4 year delay in Thailand, where EV adoption is at China's 2021 levels.
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Glenn
@GlennLuk
Replying to @GlennLuk
“Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD opened its first Southeast Asian factory in Thailand earlier this month … “
“… what received less attention was an announcement by … Suzuki Motor just a few weeks earlier that it will shutter a Thai factory …”
japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/
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“But instead of feeling good that Chinese cars will not be coming in [to the U.S. market] I feel that we should launch a car that can directly compete with Chinese rivals.”
— Yasuhide Mizuno, chief executive of Sony Honda Mobility
Toyota is building a new EV battery manufacturing facility in Fukuoka.
JV with Panasonic.
Toyota using BYD’s DM-i platform in China.
It’s better than nothing but note that Chinese Tier II and III automakers (including SOEs) develop their own NEV platforms.
It shows how far behind Toyota is on core EV tech.
