Conversation
![David Watson 🥑](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="96" height="96"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
Post your reply
Facts: most N. America trade is intermediate goods, Canada is (much) more reliant on US intermediate than US is on Canada, "negotiation" tough b/c the policy is bad for the US as is (hard to threaten someone who isn't even maximizing US welfare!). 2/x
Obviously tempting to say "Fuck this guy; on Tuesday we are cutting off electric supply to the NE, and banning oil exports until tariffs removed, and also banning every uniquely critical intermediate output from leaving." But... 3/x
The problem with escalating, again, is that Canada is more reliant on US energy than vice versa, US ports than vice versa, US intermediate goods than vice versa, and DT is basically a narcissist. Again: no normal negotiation here, as the tariffs itself have no logical basis! 4/x
The fentanyl excuse seems like a flimsy (and should be illegal) one to let the exec branch set a tariff rate that constitutionally is Congress' job. But maybe there is some "give Trump a fake win and de-escalate". I worry about what that does in the future, though. 5/x
Game theoretically, two options: 1) Give in to some Trump demand. He is a lying narcissist, so not sure exactly what that compromise is, but world history is full of lying narcissists and countries can still negotiate. Or... 6/x
2) You want a credible threat to deter Trump. I think Canada probably doesn't have the unilateral ability to do so. But with threats to EU trade and China trade as well, perhaps very specific, very geographically targeted, global export restrictions to force Congress' hands? 7/x
In any case, it's a very tough situation. Made tougher by domestic politics: Canada has no sitting govt right now, and a leadership race for the Liberals where "amp things up" is a political winner. Maybe PP sends Jivani, Vance's close friend and Canadian MP, to "fix" things? 8/x
Nobody in the world thinks I'm some kind of a progressive wingnut, but "Trump is impulsive, has no loyalty to anything but himself, and absolutely would harm the country long term to aggrandize himself" was always true. And true even if you agree with some of his policies! 9/9
(PS - Use maximum leverage if you have it is clearly Trump's one negotiating trick, going back to 1970s NYC. Sometimes it is a good idea - e.g. the ceasefire. But reason it isn't always used is b/c life is a repeated game. Using all leverage today -> people adjust tomorrow. 1/2)
For all the talk of corporate short-termism, *politicians* can be short term as well. To deter 'maximum leverage', response should lean on factors that matter to folks who will be in office, or want to be, after 2028... 2/2
(And one more followup on a potential goal of all this...if you are being very very charitable: x.com/Afinetheorem/s)
Quote
Kevin A. Bryan
@Afinetheorem
One more word on tariffs: there's the DT reason (basically whims based on 1980s beliefs), but to give benefit of doubt, what is the best arg for policy like this? @SteveMiran, new CEA chair (and of all things, my college housemate!) has a policy paper from Nov (link at end) 1/x
Shouldn't the response be to create an alliance of multiple nations and slap retaliatory tariffs on the US jointly? Meanwhile, form a customs union and make a big deal of excluding the US?
If countries found it so easy to do this, they would have done it already! To be fair, the US isn't the only one with insane protectionist policies. Canada turfed a trade deal because they refused to allow Canadians to buy milk from New Zealand.
Don’t miss this Saturday’s newsletter!
I’m diving into two powerful lessons from The Forge 
: the need for brotherhood and discipling the next generation—topics we can’t afford to overlook.
Drop your thoughts below 
and be sure to check your inbox at 9 AM!0:28
Just promise Trump you’ll reduce fentanyl imports down to 20kg, total, per year. Announce it as a huge concession*. You are already doing enough.
*I heard it’s only 18kg per year now. Not tons, kg.
The best strategy for Canada is to ignore Trump and his regressive tariffs. Don’t fight back. Let your leadership just express how sad they are for US businesses and consumers experiencing this new 25% tax increase.
I agree that the US has to control the influx of drugs from Mexico and ensure proper immigration control.
The national debt is out of control, and government spending needs to be fixed.
But the damage Trump has caused in just two weeks will take at least a decade to repair. At
Show more
Men, loneliness is a silent killer.
Research shows that isolation can have the same impact on your health as smoking 15 cigarettes a day.
God didn’t create us to walk this journey alone. “Iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another” (Proverbs 27:17).
Get involved in your
Show more
BTW the U.S. Senate can vote in secret whenever it wants to, requires just a motion and a second.
ngl “Senate would be 95-5 against” kinda makes me think we should do this
Here's a list of U.S. products that Canada has placed tariffs on, based on the information available:
- **Dairy Products**:
- Milk: 270%
- Cheese: 245%
- Butter: 298%
- Yogurt: Included but percentage not specified
- Sausages: 69.9%
- **Poultry**:
- Chicken: 238%
-
Show more
Stop the fentanyl and illegal crossings.
Stop being subsidized by the US. Make your own car companies. Build your own military.
Quote
Aaron Brogan
@AaronJBrogan
To me, the problem is that Canada and Mexico are our most important strategic allies. We take for granted that Monroe will hold indefinitely, but that isn’t a law of nature. We can only antagonize so long. The Cold War would have been very different if Mexico was Soviet aligned. x.com/APompliano/sta…
The power to impose tariffs belong solely to the EXECUTIVE BRANCH.
If had any say, THEY would be speechless.
Quote
Stephen Punwasi 
@StephenPunwasi
omg. 
alleges Toronto is the “command and control center” for the global fentanyl trade, with the money being washed through 
’s banks and real estate? I’m shocked! 
fyi just because you didn’t like what I said, doesn’t mean I was wrong. 
thebureau.news/p/prc-narcos-i
alleges Toronto is the “command and control center” for the global fentanyl trade, with the money being washed through ’s banks and real estate? I’m shocked!
fyi just because you didn’t like what I said, doesn’t mean I was wrong.
thebureau.news/p/prc-narcos-iShow more
Monday and Tuesday Will Be Brutal—The Trump Market Crash Explained
The Great Trump Market Crash Is Underway
Due to the global trade war, we will likely see the biggest stock market decline since COVID.
Be careful out there, folks. The Trump Crash will bring down the stock
Show more
Yes. The world is watching and we are destroying not only our connections but our own well being.
Also - info attached for those who want to read more on US / Canadian trade relations.
Oh Kevin, tell Justin to stop letting fentanyl cross the northern border and we can be friends again. Also, enjoy all that sour oil that you can’t do anything with now( you guys don’t have the technology to get the sulfur out)
I think you’re making 2 mistakes here.
First is that you are entitled to something “fair”, which is a negotiable definition and depends on where you’re standing.
Second, you act like trump is punishing you. It’s not about you, it’s about what’s good for USA.
You can
Show more
Don’t miss this Saturday’s newsletter!
I’m diving into two powerful lessons from The Forge : the need for brotherhood and discipling the next generation—topics we can’t afford to overlook.
Drop your thoughts below and be sure to check your inbox at 9 AM!
What to do? Quadruple down on Communism, its gotten you where you are now so why not keep going
I love how people say stop the fentanyl—I guess they mean the 20kgs. Yep, that is the problem 
You losing your mind over it shows he and the US already won the negotiation.
Nope. We voted for Trump precisely so we could get these tariffs. This is exactly what tens of millions of Americans voted for.
Quote
JD Vance
@JDVance
Mexico sends ton of fentanyl into our country. Canada has seen a massive increase in fentanyl trafficking across its border. There are three ways of stopping this. The first is ask nicely, which we’ve done. It’s gone nowhere.
Now we’re on to the consequences phase.
Show more
Rate proposed Community Notes
Your opinion is noted. For my convenience I wrote it on TP so as to make good use of it later today.
The “lack of fortitude” is what is most disheartening about this whole saga. Congress (I.e., Republicans therein) have ceded their power to one stupid and petty man with the intellect of a golf course developer. Oh wait … that’s who he is. Damn.
The worst part of this is that in a few months when everything is better because of this, none of your complainers will acknowledge it. Rather, you’ll be complaining about the next thing the media tells you will be “detrimental”.
You don’t know what you are talking about. Easy to prove. Yes , taxes are paid by the importer, but it makes the imported goods more expensive. But it makes the domestic goods more competitive. The net effect is the on shore market expands, and the import market shrinks. This is
Show more
Supporting Drug Traffickers and Human Traffickers is not a good optic here for Canada.
There are ideals that are worthy of "Dieing on this Hill" for.... but... I fear that supporting Drug Traffickers and Human Trafficking.........ISN'T ONE OF THEM.
Then, they’re dumb.
Quote
Anthony Pompliano 
@APompliano
Four truths about tariffs:
1. Tariffs don't cause inflation.
2. Tariffs lead to lower prices for American consumers.
3. Tariffs create American jobs.
4. Tariffs lead to lower income taxes.
I'll prove each one of these statements in my letter to investors on Monday morning.
Show moreRate proposed Community Notes
It is astonishing how many people can’t see beyond the end of their nose.
No Kevin, it’s a direct consequence for Trudeau and other Canadian politicians to stand up and stop the flood of fentanyl coming through our border from Canada. Makes one wonder if the refusal to work with is due to loss of sales of said drug…
Just like European powers tried to destroy Chinese society by smuggling Opium and making them opium addict same thing is happening now in new century with new drugs but direction of drug flow has changed. What US government trying to good thing to protect their citizens just
Show more
Canada & Mexico could start by stopping the fentanyl pouring across their borders 
Most people understand that we subsidize the world and that requiring fairness in return is just common sense. But not you apparently.
What should Canada do?
Become the 51st state of America.
Read this 
Quote
unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
Reporter: You promised Americans you would to try to reduce costs..
Trump: Tariffs don’t cause inflation. Tariffs cause success. There could some temporary short term disruption. And people understand that
What a bunch of low IQ bullshit.
Cut off electricity to the NE? That’s never going to happen and Canada doesn’t have the capacity to do so.
Kevin wonder what would happen if trade groups sue? Basis of his decision seems flimsy…