Chris Elmendorf on X: "A 🧵 on why I'm hopeful about San Francisco under Mayor-elect @DanielLurie. tl,dr: independence from labor unions; a board of supes he can work with; plus wind in his sails from ballot-measure votes & opinion polls 1/14" / X

A

on why I'm hopeful about San Francisco under Mayor-elect

. tl,dr: independence from labor unions; a board of supes he can work with; plus wind in his sails from ballot-measure votes & opinion polls 1/14

2:48 PM · Nov 9, 2024

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Chris Elmendorf

@CSElmendorf

Nov 9

Context: SF is going to have to make big, tough, high-stakes decisions over next several years: - closing the huge, structural fiscal deficit, sfstandard.com/2024/01/17/san - massive upzoning & constraint removal actions for compliance w/ state 's housing-element law /2

- big investments in public safety / public order / shelters / drug treatment, which will be necessary to meet public's demand that the city end its current policy of forbearance (Other cities confront similar challenges, x.com/VitalCityNYC/s) /3

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Vital City

@VitalCityNYC

Nov 8

Was urban governance on the ballot when Trump made big gains in cities? In a new piece in Vital City, @ProfSchleich argues that cities' current leaders are in trouble unless they get smart on zoning, crime/disorder, fiscal problems and the cost of living. vitalcitynyc.org/articles/the-f

Lurie's inexperience means he will face a steep learning curve dealing w/ these problems--but he also has incredible assets. Asset #1: His entire campaign was essentially self-financed, with friends and family chipping in a bit more. sfchronicle.com/election/artic /4

This has been S.F’s most expensive modern mayoral race — and Lurie’s spending accounts for most of...

By contrast, every other candidate for mayor (or the board of supes) in living memory has been dependent on labor unions. Moderates depend on public safety unions, carpenters. Progressives depend on SEIU, teachers, hotel workers, sfstandard.com/2024/09/06/san /5

As big money floods SF politics, progressives plot a counterattack

Labor unions do some good things! But they also make it really hard to cut budgets, fire workers, set new priorities, and, ironically, to build housing cheaply, papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf. /6

Thanks to his self-financed campaign, Lurie will be able to negotiate w/ unions from position of strength. He's the anti-Brandon Johnson. /7

Stacy Davis Gates, left, is the president of the Chicago Teachers Union. She has maintained a longtime friendship with Mayor Brandon Johnson.

What Happened When Chicago’s Mayor Followed a Teachers’ Union Playbook

Asset #2: Lurie allies will have a majority of seats on board of supes. This makes charter reform possible. Over the last few years, progressive supes have defeated every charter reform effort by putting competing, poison-pilled measures on the ballot. No longer. /8

The new board of supes will also help Lurie pass a strong housing element rezoning, and kickstart housing production by cutting impact fees, IZ, and other barriers to development. /9

(Among other things, I'm hopeful that supes will pass a ministerial permitting ordinance and put to test the old lore that S.F. city charter "forbids" ministerial permitting, papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf) /10

Asset #3: Ballot measure results and public-opinion polls provide strong support for Lurie's agenda. - By 2:1 margin, SF voted to reverse the "de-felonization" of property & drug crimes /11

- Per opinion polls, huge margins also support hiring more police and cracking down on public drug use & other antisocial behavior, growsf.org/pulse/growsf-p /12

February 2024 Poll Results

- Very large majorities also back large-scale upzoning and removal of development constraints--even reduction of BMR mandates insofar as they render housing projects infeasible, x.com/CSElmendorf/st /13

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Chris Elmendorf

@CSElmendorf

Oct 25

Might San Francisco's electorate be the YIMBYest of all? Incredible results from @GrowSF's new housing poll raise the question--and blow up a bunch of old shibboleths. growsf.org/pulse/growsf-p

.

Lurie and his big-city counterparts face daunting challenges, and I have no idea how he'll fare as a manager or as an evaluator of talent. But, as I wish him the best--congrats,

@DanielLurie

!--my hopes are high. /end

I can tell you don't live here.

I do

So... When will I be able to visit it and feel safe? Is it one of the 14 posts?

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@WeArePrimeDeFi

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He’s got to run it Rudy ran NY it’s needs a total to bottom cleanup

I'm not a fan of people who buy their political seats. If Lurie tries to start any of that right wing shit here, he'll lose that seat in a heartbeat. FAFO.

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