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I am going to make a prediction which I hope isn't right: The housing market is going to be very difficult for new buyers for the indefinite future.
Monthly mortgage payments on new homes are up 50% since 2020. But median household income is only up 10%.
I just don't see
By law, the US adds 1 million new naturalized citizens and 1 million new permanent residents every year. We also have 1 million visa overstays every year.
Even with lower illegal border crossings, the American population grows by 1% a year by *official* immigration statistics
All of those people, plus all the young coming of age means there is a constant, unrelenting demand for housing.
Right now, we only build 1 million new single family homes per year. We need to be building two times that to significantly lower prices.
Chinese, Indians, Arabs, and Mexicans come to America so they can live in a big house in the suburbs somewhere. That really is their American dream. I frequently see these groups buying up big homes and cramming multiple generations into a single property.
Everything I hear right now anecdotally is that the housing market for "reasonable" family homes (1500-2200 square feet) is scorching hot. Multiple all-cash offers in the first 24 hours here in Hillsdale. Still. In 2025.
And in a decent area, the amount of people investing in real estate is crazy. Every boomer with money that I know is scooping up land and homes. I see people constantly working on nearby dump houses to try get them livable because the return is good enough.
If you are waiting on the housing market to collapse, my guess is you are going to be waiting a very long time. The 2008-2013 period was, in my view, an aberration. The immigration-fueled population boom can only be slowed by congressional action and the chance of Congress
Even Trump didn't campaign on lowering legal immigration. Keeping housing prices sky high is awesome for the Boomers. They are the only class of Americans who is downsizing and so they really can make out like bandits when they finally sell.
I've had multiple elderly relatives become millionaires after selling their homes.
Most common post-house sale splurge? Cruises.
The only way to meaningfully make homes affordable today is to control immigration. Deregulating the home market might generate a bunch of new housing but it won't be high quality and so demand for good houses will remain high.
With so many buyers having locked in low interest rates in the last decade, we are going to see people hanging onto those houses. Why give up the golden goose?
The raw inflow of people is the chief reason for housing being so high. Monetary policy also plays a role, of course, but demand is driving the bus here.
Where I live, basically every home is up 80-100%+ since 2020. Completely unsustainable.
Starter homes going for 6-700k and modestly “nice” homes are $1 million.
In a crowded country, which the US has become (limit to the places where there are jobs), the typical family lives in a small apartment, not a standalone house. There is no reason to expect a median worker (or even two median workers) to be able to afford a house. It worked when
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Unfortunately, I think you’re right. Interest rates are so high that borrowing to buy a home is unreasonable, which leaves only existing home owners and extremely wealthy young people as the only market participants.
To make it even worse, historically, when interest rates fall home values hold or go up. IE, when money is "easier" to get, the property values typically go up.
Somewhat unsurprising, since US mortgage holders can refinance or close out their mortgages at any time. It would be unusual to see existing mortgages have higher costs than market by more than the cost of refinancing (amortized over the rest of the loan).
Of course, this
Under 4% here. I lucked out in terms of timing, buying pre-COVID. Know lots of younger guys with full time decent jobs who cannot get into the market. Not sustainable.
Ha, I’ve gotta say, I didn’t expect the original tweet taking that xenophobic hard right turn by the end of the thread haha
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the inventory-to-sales ratio for new autos—that's how many get sold versus how many go on sale—spiked a HUGE 26 percent from July to August.
These are the latest data—and that is the biggest spike BY FAR in over THREE YEARS!Slide 1 of 2 - Carousel
And we cant sell in order to downsize because we wont give up the rate we have. They need to make mortage loan rates transferable in order to free up inventory.
That data point seems flawed. Grok estimated 15 percent give or take above 6 percent. Further, $rkt mortgage on November earnings call said int he low 6’s they had a substantial spike in refinance activity. About 20 percent in every percentage jump down with 20 percent under 3%
Pacific Palisades present an opportunity for the environmentally concerned left to show us how it should be done.
High rises in the PP for all!
We can do this right, and it’s the right thing to do!
No one wants to get rid of their mortgage which has a three or four percent right.
How many is that in raw numbers?
What percent of home owners own their homes free and clear?
3% here and not budging for 20 years, unless they buy up the corn fields and build apartments. Then I'm out
We're trapped in our starter home despite 3x the income since we bought.
I have one at 2.75% and another at 6.25%
You've never debated someone like me before
This is what I do on a daily basis:
Investor joins The Offer Haus.
They answer a few questions telling us about the property they are looking to invest in.
The calculator will show them how much they’ll save.
The software
1. Creates an entire offer in 10 minutes
2. Fills out
What if I told you the way you structure your real estate deal could save you thousands in taxes?
Creative deal structuring isn’t just for the pros.
Understanding how to leverage 1031 exchanges, depreciation, or even seller financing can drastically change your bottom line.
Not just marketers, but growth partners obsessed with results.
Think about it!
it’s NOT mind blowing at all.
If you had a mortgage HIGHER THAN current market rates, you would simply refi DOWN to market rates.
This sounds like you’re a bag holder coping about an illiquid market. Your model is only correct when the US population is growing YoY through productive White people having children.
That stat is from two years ago and not at all applicable to 2025 after multiple years of >6% rates. What an idiotic thread.
And builders have incentives far lower than what overpricing home loaners have in mind.
Here in Central Florida we got 1962 Space Race 3/1.5 (& 3 b/c carport enclosed) homeloaners thinking people will pay them 10-15% less than a new build across the road with 30% more sq ft.
I don’t get why everyone wants to mess with the demand side to fix this problem. Just fix the supply side. Simply allow more housing to be built, it’s profitable for everyone and costs the government/ taxpayers $0.
The solution is simple: deport 40 million+ people. The will or power has not yet been seen, but it's there, well reflected by polling.
Have you looked into the subprime lending % of total mortgages? Might be corrected sooner rather than later if it’s true that there are still massive amounts of lockdown mortgage relief in effect
Corporations heavily "invested" in private real estate to set market limits on rents in popular areas. That drives buyers a little further out, that drives lower income families further out
$SPY $SPX The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is 21.68x to start 2025. Historically, higher valuations have led to lower long-term returns.
Are we heading for muted gains? 
Here’s the historical context: 
#SP500 #Investing #Markets
Here’s the historical context:
#SP500 #Investing #Markets![Image](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="800" height="418"><rect fill-opacity="0"/></svg>)
It's not wild at all. Rather, it's expected. Why would anyone keep higher than the current mortgage rate when they can refi almost at the current rate? By definition, the current rate is the maximum most people should be paying.
I don’t think that’s surprising at all given that rates were near zero for 15 years
Id happily buy some land and build a house. The problem is no one is selling and the federal government sits on the rest like a brooding hen.
How is it possible only 1% of loans are above 4% when rates have been above that for so long? Wild
I've never been able to refi, and my mortage rate is 6.5%. Locked in in 2008.
$SPY $SPX High valuations often mean lower future returns. The S&P 500 starts 2025 with a forward P/E of 21.68x—what does that mean for 1, 3, 5, and 10-year returns? 
History suggests caution.
Dive into the data:
#SP500 #StockMarket #Investing
History suggests caution.
Dive into the data:
#SP500 #StockMarket #Investing
That like literally happens every time there’s a 35 unrelenting slide in rates followed by 5 years of a housing shortage and rate hikes
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What are you whining about?
Mine was 8% (Yes EIGHT %)
when I paid it off, in 1992.
Americans are just gonna have to get used to illegally occupying a house with many family members. Not saying this is good, just being realistic.
I have mortgages on 3 of my 7 multi families. All 3 are under 3%. Gold mines.
That’s why no one has been selling and supply is limited. You literally need people to die off for new stock
This is actually super crazy. I know people don't want to sell because of their rate and buyers love seeing an assumable loan
But 99%? Crazy
Need a war that a lot of people get sacrificed in is really the only option.
wild stat - race baiting is more profitable than talking about the economy
Why did you suddenly go hard right xenophobic rather than recognize the real conclusion - we need to build more homes??
less zoning regulation, cheaper supplies (lower import tariffs), better public transport so people can commute from houses further away
What if you’re someone who has a 2.75% rate and you’re retiring in the next 5 years but will only have been in your 30 year mortgage for about 8 years? What do you do if you want to move to a warmer climate?
2.3%. 18 years left, probably pay off in 10 but why. I’ll never sell. Not with that rate.
$SPY $SPX The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is 21.68x to start 2025. Historically, higher valuations have led to lower long-term returns.
Are we heading for muted gains?
Here’s the historical context:
#SP500 #Investing #Markets
Here’s the historical context:
#SP500 #Investing #Markets
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